[STAX]

How can you pass this up? Even if you think Denver is a decent favorite, you have to think NE is going to win 35% of the time or better. Personally I think this is a 50/50 or maybe 55/45 in Denver's favor.

Put your bets in now, this is value city

[Barnes & Whine]

That's what the books want you to think. It's a smart pick but Denver is going to win. Take the points instead.

[thebestthereis]

peyton owns brady and the patriots, good luck!

[Renegades]

Huh? Peyton owns brady and the pats? Thats not what their head to head record suggests

[thebestthereis]

I was joking while peyton was choking

[Big Bear]

How can you pass this up? Even if you think Denver is a decent favorite, you have to think NE is going to win 35% of the time or better. Personally I think this is a 50/50 or maybe 55/45 in Denver's favor.

Put your bets in now, this is value city

if you really feel like the Broncos have a 50% chance to win there is no value in +210.

you should only bet on what you feel like WILL happen.

that being said I do think the Patriots will win this game but i'm not going to turn down the points if the books want to give them to me.

Tom Brady owns Peyton Manning.

And Manning knows it . All the pressure is on the Broncos in this spot.

[slacker00]

That's what the books want you to think. It's a smart pick but Denver is going to win. Take the points instead.

The books want you to bet DEN on Monday, then change your mind and bet Pats on Tuesday. They just want action.

[Darkside Magick]

you should only bet on what you feel like WILL happen.

This.

That the only way to bet.... old school style

[nvrlose37]

It's good value for sure but the Patriots on the road have been anything but spectacular this year. If nothing else, that would determine the game.

[ringemup]

Belicheck is the key here has always found ways to outthink manning using disguised defensive schemes. Solid money at +210 backing Brady n co. upset may be in the cards. Without 2 playmakers for Denver Harris n Von Miller, Brady has weaknesses to attack now.

[odog11]

if you really feel like the Broncos have a 50% chance to win there is no value in +210.

you should only bet on what you feel like WILL happen.

that being said I do think the Patriots will win this game but i'm not going to turn down the points if the books want to give them to me.

Tom Brady owns Peyton Manning.

And Manning knows it . All the pressure is on the Broncos in this spot.

People can feel what "will happen:" all they want, but they can't know and it all comes down to probability. If you believe a game is 50/50 or even close to it and you are getting +210 you have to bet it. I guess you could be uber selective and only ever bet against falls favorites where you are getting plus money on the likely winner. Point is though if you can find ML dogs that win 50% of the time you make money, shouldn't make it all about this one bet winning or losing.

[Big Bear]

your right.

i'm just not an advocate of playing a underdog just b/c of value.

I think its important to have confidence and conviction.

[Fred The Hammer]

if you really feel like the Broncos have a 50% chance to win there is no value in +210.

you should only bet on what you feel like WILL happen.

that being said I do think the Patriots will win this game but i'm not going to turn down the points if the books want to give them to me.

Tom Brady owns Peyton Manning.

And Manning knows it . All the pressure is on the Broncos in this spot.

Funny how Manning won 2 of the last 3 at home vs Brady then. Belechik is so scared of him that he goes for it on 4th/2 at his own 25.....but Manning sucks. PM/Colts are a playoff team 1 year....Colts/minus PM are the worst team in football the next....but Manning sucks. We'll see!!

[BigdaddyQH]

I love how some of you, especially the newby's look at every single book they can find on line and take the biggest line they see, no matter if they have an account there or not. The fact is that there is only one book that is offering +210 out of 40 that I monitor. Bottom line people. If you have NOT put your money down, you do NOT have the wager. If you HAVE put your money down, name the casino and the time and date you went down so people can verify and determine if you are legit.

[Big Bear]

I love how some of you, especially the newby's look at every single book they can find on line and take the biggest line they see, no matter if they have an account there or not. The fact is that there is only one book that is offering +210 out of 40 that I monitor. Bottom line people. If you have NOT put your money down, you do NOT have the wager. If you HAVE put your money down, name the casino and the time and date you went down so people can verify and determine if you are legit.

i dont see how this matters ... personally i dont care if people lie about the number they got as long as they post winners.

yesterday you made a statement that you can only bet on sports in a casino if you are in Vegas...

but don't forget you can also bet at the Atlantis Casino in Nassau Bahamas.

anyway i see your point though.. i think some people lie about the number they got ( not saying OP is lying and i dont care) a win is a win.

.... i only care about the number i can get and the bets that i place. But i do wish everyone the best except for No Coincidences i hope he goes broke.

[bobby heenan]

*Won-Loss Record: Brady holds a 10-4 edge
*Brady on the road: holds a 3-2 edge.
*Team points per game: 30.0 for the Patriots, 24.6 for Colts/Broncos.
*Completion percentage: Brady: 67.0%, Manning: 61.8%.
*Touchdowns to interceptions: 26 TDs, 12 INTs for Brady; 29 TDs, 20 INTs for Manning.
*Regular season Passer Rating: Brady: 100.6, Manning: 93.6
*Playoff Passer Rating: Brady: 81.7, Manning: 61.0

[RDUBS]

I love how some of you, especially the newby's look at every single book they can find on line and take the biggest line they see, no matter if they have an account there or not. The fact is that there is only one book that is offering +210 out of 40 that I monitor. Bottom line people. If you have NOT put your money down, you do NOT have the wager. If you HAVE put your money down, name the casino and the time and date you went down so people can verify and determine if you are legit.

What makes someone a "newbee"? Someone who just got on SBR? I'm 44 years old and have been gambling since the 80s. You want me to go to Charlestown on Super Bowl Sunday and ask the local bookie to put something on paper for me? I'll ask but you can pick it up.... Asswipe.

[thebestthereis]

You can meet at the 99, bookie will be at the bar

[RDUBS]

You can meet at the 99, bookie will be at the bar

Ooooofff.... That didn't work out so well before.

[STAX]

Are you calling me out for lying about the number I got? Why would I lie about it?

[Fred The Hammer]

Value bets are for small players or maybe some kind of system in MLB or NBA. People don't bet that way in football. Usually the bigger the game the more they bet.....culminating in the Repo man showing up on Super Bowl Monday.