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Actually, as strange as it sounds, lines could be softer in post-season than regular season because the sheer volume bet by squares has to be factored into the lines, whereas square money is usually ignored in the regular season.Originally Posted by No coincidences
You honestly think "square" or "public" money is betting this game a week ahead of time? Come on, LT.
That is not what I said. I said lines have to be set with anticipated square money in mind, something that is not even a consideration during the year.
Square side is Denver. Bill and Brady are in a familiar spot. Game is either a decisive Pat win or too close to call. There is no way for Denver to put them away.
So why would you open a line high (6) compared to where you think it should be (3), knowing that the sharps are the ones looking for an early advantage vs. the public (who usually waits until game day to bet)?
I agree this line should've opened at 3 or 4. The fact that it opened at 6 is significant IMHO. Bait.
You make no sense, and your attempts to troll aren't welcome. Lets keep the discussion to football.
Okay, bro...
I typically never bet on games involving my favorite teams (lots of idiots here on SBR seem to do so though... you're probably included), but I'll be throwing some coin on Denver ML. A jinx attempt, basically. I'll gladly take a Pats W over the money, though.
They are, except the key players that have helped lead to past Patriot runs -- guys like Wilfork and Gronk -- are nowhere to be found. In case you haven't noticed, Brady's receiving core is a bunch of B-list actors now, and the Pats are very vulnerable up front defensively. This is not a complete Patriots team; that's why they've struggled on the road this year. Brady and Belicick can only do so much.
why would you care more about an organization that couldn't care if you were dead or alive vs money?
Okay, bro...
I typically never bet on games involving my favorite teams (lots of idiots here on SBR seem to do so though... you're probably included), but I'll be throwing some coin on Denver ML. A jinx attempt, basically. I'll gladly take a Pats W over the money, though.
hey John
I SCREAM TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT!!!!!!!!!!
dont forget denvers injuries...
The Broncos' defense already is playing without Von Miller, Rahim Moore and Derek Wolfe. And now that list reportedly includes Harris.
Exactly. Again, yet they open -6?
after what ive gone thru in college this year, i cant agree with that logic anymore.
oh look, kentucky is -1 @ arkansas tomorrow...
f\*\*k Arkansas.after what ive gone thru in college this year, i cant agree with that logic anymore.
oh look, kentucky is -1 @ arkansas tomorrow...
This is so true but at the same time.....Fox and Del Rio proved once again yesterday that they just don't think that well on the fly. Keenan Allen is the only damn WR that SD has and after Chris Harris got hurt...they just left Jammer on him 1-on-1 who is no better than their 4th best cover guy. It almost cost them again....if Manning doesn't convert 3rd/17. Belechik is worth atleast 4-6 points in an average game over Fox and I HATE NE and love Peyton.
Huh?
I personally don't see any problem with the opening line.. During regular season some books opened at -2.5 to -3. Of course Pinny didn't, but it was flirting around -1 to -2.5 and playing at NE. Giving Broncons 3 to 3.5 points now playing in denver looks fair to me.. -6 opening is pushing it at the edge of fair since this game is now being played in Denver. Line closed -1 to pk, and samething is happening now.. Lines dropping.. At the end the books got about fair action on both sides. I don't see that line dropping below 4 to 4.5, and it shouldn't. And as long as it stays at 4, you can expect late money to start rolling in on denver and it should close to near even action again.
We can look at it as, books know what they are doing, and if anything it's dictating that samething is pretty much happening as it happened during regular season, and #'s wise they were pretty happy with what htey got last time.. Giving Broncosn an extra FG at home since their last -1 is about right I'd say..
I'll be surprised if that number moves past 4 to 4.5, i'd think it'll stay during rest of the week.
Only thing you should ask is, will late money be coming in on Denver to even out teh action, or if late money will come more into the Patriots and force that line to change late..
Last edited by Monitor-Tan; 01-13-14 at 08:48 PM.
Lets play the under and just sweat it out!
yup...likely the smartest play. already a super inflated total based on the game last time and books knowing public will think over.
this game has 27-20 written all over it....im either going to have pats + at least 7.5 or denver ML if around 150-175ish...
If den was -1 in NE at pinnacle then they should be -7 in Denver. ..
Most important thing to note is that ne was only -6 over sd yesterday before den game.
lol I don't care if the organization recognizes my existence or not. I enjoy rooting for the team. The Pats punching their ticket to the SB by beating Peyton and Butterfingers Welker in their house would be fukkin great. I'd treasure that more than winning a bet on that day. Besides, any lost money on the Broncos, I'd make up for in college hoops the next day. True story.
thats cool....
Yeah brah, isn't it?
I still love this pic though....
that is great - hahaI still love this pic though....
that is pure OWNAGE!I still love this pic though....
Peyton knows he is Tom's bitch.
I think of a lot of it has to do with Manning always epic failing in the playoffs
Brady must remember he blew his chance to get 4 rings vs peyton when the pats blew that title game in indy. Bears was a free win.
New England has the far superior coaching, better defense, better run game and better quarterback. Take the points.
I like Denver in this game.
I'll give u the coaching....if Fox takes the handcuff off Manning last year like he did Sunday then Baltimore never wins. Better run game? Moreno went for 200 on NE. THis year...Brady doesn't score in OT either...game is determined by a Denver special teams fumble. Manning won at home in 06 when the game on the line and pretty boy threw the pick. I think Manning has won 3 in a row vs Brady at home.
So the Pats have already defeated Denver this season. They have also defeated Indy, another team that Denver lost to. They both defeated Baltimore. Now everyone stop the B.S. and just admit that the linemakers blew the opening line between these two by trying to jump the gun on each other. I do not know how many of you guys play middles, but judging by what I see in here, my guess would be very few. Middle opportunities like this rarely come in playoff games. This is how you make money. A middle pays 20/1 if you hit it. Do the math.
Middles are really expensive, but I've done them and won. I don't see this game ending on the number.
Yes, I'm saying they have a better running game. It's been dominant the last five or six weeks. The Pats have a better run blocking offensive line and I would take Blount/Vereen/Ridley over Moreno/Ball any day of the week. The Patriot backs all do different things and create a lot of versatility.
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