1. #1
    Phatman36
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    Two Team Teaser for this upcoming weekend (Seahawks/Chargers)

    For anyone interested in reading a novel, I drew up a 2 team 7 point teaser that I really like for this weekend (Lines were placed at Youwager.)

    Chargers +17
    Seahawks -1

    Rationale for Seahawks vs Saints:
    Media has been blowing the Saints up after their first on the road win in a while. I still am not sold and here's why. Let's do a side by side comparison of performances of each respective pass defense between the Eagles and Seattle.

    • Philadelphia gives up on average 290 yards in the air per game, they are ranked 32nd in pass defense.
    • Seattle gives up on average 172 yards in the air per game, they are ranked 1st in pass defense.


    Think about those two stats for a minute. Now let's move on to the next part where Brees threw for 250 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs versus Philadelphia last weekend. For those of you without basic logic skills, he didn't even reach the average amount that the Eagles give up on any given weekend.

    Now lets do a side by side comparison to the numbers he put up on MNF against the Seahawks. Brees put up 147 yards in the air that game, also falling below Seattle's expected average number of yards given up per game. Bottom line is, he can't even reach the averages of a team's pass defense which means he and his receivers are underperforming.

    Now I know a lot people are throwing around the fact that the Saints got embarrassed the last time around and they will be able to really show up in style and beat the Seahawks this time around but I just think it's the NFL trying to get people up for game that they know will probably be a beatdown. Personally, when I watched that MNF game last time the Saints looked lost out there. The crowd noise, the temperature, and the Seattle Secondary were really limiting Brees, you could just see it on his face on every drive. If anything this time around the crowd will be louder, it will be colder, and given a full week of rest the secondary will be flying around again making big plays.

    My conclusion: I take the Seahawks -1 here because it is any given Sunday (or Saturday) but I don't see the Saints pulling out a win here. If you watched last weekend against Philadelphia they are running with a piecemeal secondary that I strongly believe will get heavily exploited by play action from the Seahawks. This is also presuming that Percy Harvin does not make an appearance and that Russell Wilson passes for his average of 210 yards (he threw for 310 against the Saints last time, with the majority of the 4th quarter plays being runs to grind clock because they were up by so much.) There are just too many moving parts going against the Saint's favor. If this were at home for Brees and company it would be a different story but if I had to put my balls on the line I would take the Seahawks here over a team that barely beat up on an NFC East "champion" (I use the quotes because calling them the champion of the NFC East this year is like telling a kid he won the special olympics.)

    ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ________

    Now for those of you still reading...the 10% or so.... I will break down the Chargers +17.

    Rationale for Chargers vs Broncos:
    Everyone loves Denver's flashy offense but they are quick to forget the fact that Peyton has struggled in the post season in the past. Also, the one thing that has stood out to me is Phillip Rivers and his team's commitment to outsmarting teams. Last weekend against the Bengals the Chargers really showed their football intelligence by mixing things up against Andy Dalton and showing the Bengals different looks after strong halftime adjustments (They held the Bengals scoreless in the second half.) The Bengals also only scored 10 points total during that game while normally averaging 37 points a game at home.

    Last time the Chargers played the Broncos they flipped the time of possession by strangling the Broncos slowly via their running game (39 minutes for the chargers, 21 for the Broncos.) On top of that the Chargers defense stepped up when it mattered most and got Peyton off on 3rd down. Putting this aside, I found a few stats which I thought were pretty interesting.
    • Rivers is 6-2 lifetime at Mile High.
    • Peyton Manning is 9-11 in the playoffs. 8 of those 11 losses have come from one and done losses.


    People are saying that this is the year of Peyton with his flashy offense and his nice MVP run. People never look at his Achilles heel however, his defense. With the loss of Von Miller I think that their run game will be at an all time weakest. The run game is exactly what San Diego exploited last time in their matchup against Denver. San Diego had 11 first downs last time which attributed heavily to long scoring drives that resulted in lots of time being taken off and TDs being scored.

    Phillip Rivers also has shown his efficiency this season in the passing game. He finished this season 69.4% pass completion percentage. I think this factors into his team's capability to win ballgames because they are so efficient on third down (Chargers have the highest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL, according to ESPN.) This efficiency has enabled them to set up an offense that can grind down bad pass defenses such as Denvers (27th in pass defense, 8th in run defense.)

    My conclusion: I am taking the Chargers +17 here because I think that San Diego rests heavily on their run game again. They may not beat the Broncos here but they are going to chew enough time off the clock to prevent the Broncos from having a stupidly high scoring margin. Broncos may very well win by one or two TDs but anything more than that I think would have to be a bit of a freak accident.

    Plus the Ravens were a 10 point dog last year at Denver after sneaking into the playoffs and look how they turned out right?....

    Anyways the TL;DR is Seahawks -1 and Chargers +17 will cover against their respective opponents. 10 Units going down here. To anyone who read this whole thing, thanks for listening.

  2. #2
    IllyPhilly[DOC]
    IllyPhilly[DOC]'s Avatar Become A Pro!
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    4 team teaser:Over pats/Over sd/Under carolina/under sea

  3. #3
    Parligod
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    I like Seattle a ton vs. New Orleans (I'd love to see NO beat Seattle but it's just not going to happen). Chargers also continue to impress and have matched up well vs. Denver this year (man handled them last time they met).

  4. #4
    ZIPPER HEAD
    ZIPPER HEAD's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phatman36 View Post
    For anyone interested in reading a novel, I drew up a 2 team 7 point teaser that I really like for this weekend (Lines were placed at Youwager.)

    Chargers +17
    Seahawks -1

    Rationale for Seahawks vs Saints:
    Media has been blowing the Saints up after their first on the road win in a while. I still am not sold and here's why. Let's do a side by side comparison of performances of each respective pass defense between the Eagles and Seattle.

    • Philadelphia gives up on average 290 yards in the air per game, they are ranked 32nd in pass defense.
    • Seattle gives up on average 172 yards in the air per game, they are ranked 1st in pass defense.


    Think about those two stats for a minute. Now let's move on to the next part where Brees threw for 250 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs versus Philadelphia last weekend. For those of you without basic logic skills, he didn't even reach the average amount that the Eagles give up on any given weekend.

    Now lets do a side by side comparison to the numbers he put up on MNF against the Seahawks. Brees put up 147 yards in the air that game, also falling below Seattle's expected average number of yards given up per game. Bottom line is, he can't even reach the averages of a team's pass defense which means he and his receivers are underperforming.

    Now I know a lot people are throwing around the fact that the Saints got embarrassed the last time around and they will be able to really show up in style and beat the Seahawks this time around but I just think it's the NFL trying to get people up for game that they know will probably be a beatdown. Personally, when I watched that MNF game last time the Saints looked lost out there. The crowd noise, the temperature, and the Seattle Secondary were really limiting Brees, you could just see it on his face on every drive. If anything this time around the crowd will be louder, it will be colder, and given a full week of rest the secondary will be flying around again making big plays.

    My conclusion: I take the Seahawks -1 here because it is any given Sunday (or Saturday) but I don't see the Saints pulling out a win here. If you watched last weekend against Philadelphia they are running with a piecemeal secondary that I strongly believe will get heavily exploited by play action from the Seahawks. This is also presuming that Percy Harvin does not make an appearance and that Russell Wilson passes for his average of 210 yards (he threw for 310 against the Saints last time, with the majority of the 4th quarter plays being runs to grind clock because they were up by so much.) There are just too many moving parts going against the Saint's favor. If this were at home for Brees and company it would be a different story but if I had to put my balls on the line I would take the Seahawks here over a team that barely beat up on an NFC East "champion" (I use the quotes because calling them the champion of the NFC East this year is like telling a kid he won the special olympics.)

    ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ________

    Now for those of you still reading...the 10% or so.... I will break down the Chargers +17.

    Rationale for Chargers vs Broncos:
    Everyone loves Denver's flashy offense but they are quick to forget the fact that Peyton has struggled in the post season in the past. Also, the one thing that has stood out to me is Phillip Rivers and his team's commitment to outsmarting teams. Last weekend against the Bengals the Chargers really showed their football intelligence by mixing things up against Andy Dalton and showing the Bengals different looks after strong halftime adjustments (They held the Bengals scoreless in the second half.) The Bengals also only scored 10 points total during that game while normally averaging 37 points a game at home.

    Last time the Chargers played the Broncos they flipped the time of possession by strangling the Broncos slowly via their running game (39 minutes for the chargers, 21 for the Broncos.) On top of that the Chargers defense stepped up when it mattered most and got Peyton off on 3rd down. Putting this aside, I found a few stats which I thought were pretty interesting.
    • Rivers is 6-2 lifetime at Mile High.
    • Peyton Manning is 9-11 in the playoffs. 8 of those 11 losses have come from one and done losses.


    People are saying that this is the year of Peyton with his flashy offense and his nice MVP run. People never look at his Achilles heel however, his defense. With the loss of Von Miller I think that their run game will be at an all time weakest. The run game is exactly what San Diego exploited last time in their matchup against Denver. San Diego had 11 first downs last time which attributed heavily to long scoring drives that resulted in lots of time being taken off and TDs being scored.

    Phillip Rivers also has shown his efficiency this season in the passing game. He finished this season 69.4% pass completion percentage. I think this factors into his team's capability to win ballgames because they are so efficient on third down (Chargers have the highest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL, according to ESPN.) This efficiency has enabled them to set up an offense that can grind down bad pass defenses such as Denvers (27th in pass defense, 8th in run defense.)

    My conclusion: I am taking the Chargers +17 here because I think that San Diego rests heavily on their run game again. They may not beat the Broncos here but they are going to chew enough time off the clock to prevent the Broncos from having a stupidly high scoring margin. Broncos may very well win by one or two TDs but anything more than that I think would have to be a bit of a freak accident.

    Plus the Ravens were a 10 point dog last year at Denver after sneaking into the playoffs and look how they turned out right?....

    Anyways the TL;DR is Seahawks -1 and Chargers +17 will cover against their respective opponents. 10 Units going down here. To anyone who read this whole thing, thanks for listening.
    Great write up. I'm tailing

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