[C-Gold]

The 49ers are a better version of Carolina and I could see Cam Newton disappointing next weekend.

Both defenses are good, especially both front 7s.
Both offensive lines are good, both running games are good.
Both QB's are young and inconsistent at this point.

49ers have a huge advantage in coaching.
49ers have a big advantage in experience.


Kaep has won big and playoff type games. The stats are similar this year but Kaep played in a much tougher division. If you watched him beat the Packers he made a lot of good throws outside the numbers. This is a big deal because he has a very strong arm. He likes working with Crabtree but he still has Boldin and Vernon Davis. He was also careful with the football this year and only threw 8 picks. If it is not there he can run and he has better pocket awareness at this point than Cam. Kaep also showed toughness not wearing sleeves and winning on the road. I could see Scam Newton getting frustrated and losing at home against this strong defense. There is no way he should have taken 43 sacks with that offensive line in front of him. His poor pocket awareness is going to bite him in the ass.

I could see San Fran winning this game and then beating Seattle in Seattle.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

I agree that SF could and should beat Carolina, but It's not going to be easy like SD ML was Sunday. Car was another team this year with a monster home record like 8-0, or 7-1. SF road record though was just as good going 5-2. I think Carolina is the play only if Stevie Smith plays. He's the guy you can through deep on any given play. And that's the only thing Carolina has that can really beat SF. Throwing deep to their WRs because Smith and Ginn can burn SF secondary. Both are really really fast. Carolina's secondary is slightly better than SF IMO. Not that SF can't throw deep, I just think Carolina will execute it better when used. Other than that it will be a close game.

[C-Gold]

I like Kaep throwing to Crabtree, Veron Davis and Boldon better than Cam throwing to Smith, Ginn and Olson. Especially with coach Harbaugh helping his young QB out. The Panthers offensive coaching staff isn't nearly as good.

[15805]

With Crabtree in top form now that's the ingredient that was missing when they last played Carolina. Next week Crab will be the difference.
Kaepernick is the new age QB, the long strider with a big league arm. Cap will back to the SUPER BOWL!

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

I agree with all your points, I'm just not making this game a strong play. It's really going to be close. Having Crabtree and Manningham back in shape is huge though. No more doubling Boldin.

[DoubleR90]

This game is easily the worst play of the weekend. I'm not touching this one, there is virtually no edge here imo. I think the niners squeak out a very close win and it will be a great game to watch, but I'm not putting one red cent on this game

[C-Gold]

SF is the best play of the week. They are going back to the SB.

[Parligod]

Couple interesting points:

1. Last time these teams met in Candlestick final score was 10-9 Panthers. 49ers were missing Crabtree, Davis (knocked out with concussion), Aldon Smith - one of the best pass rushers in the NFL - and one saftey also out with concussion. All players are back and will play tomorrow in Carolina. bleacherrport wrote up an article on the 49ers D arguing that they play on a different level so long as both Smiths are on the field (Justin and Aldon).
2. Brian Billick ranks 49ers with a toxic differential of +30, 2nd only to Seahawks. "Toxic differential essentially combines turnover differential and explosive-play differential. (Explosive plays are those that gain 20-plus yards.)" Billick's opinion is that this statistic is THE most determinative factor (even more than turnover differential) when predicting which team will come out on top. Also from separate source, "[t]he holy grail is having a double positive, in other words a team is winning the turnover differential AND the explosive play differential." It should be noted that Panthers rank top 10 in toxic differential as well.
3. Colin Kaepernick managed ~16 yards rushing vs. Carolina last time. This goes out the door given it's playoffs time. In post-season, Kaep is averaging 90+ yards per game rushing. Even if you exclude his Green Bay explosion last year's playoff (180+ yards rushing if I recall), he still averages 60+ yards rushing per game.

Edit: I think the best explanation for Kaepernick's increase in rushing yards post-season was given by a fellow SBR member who argued that his QB safety goes out the window (in other words since it's playoffs time they'll take their shots and let him loose on the other teams). Kaep's overall QB numbers are equally impressive - he's played like a beast every playoff game to date.

[carolinacapper]

Panthers homer here but I do think SF takes this one by 7+. Doubt Steve Smith is close to 100% and SF has Aldon Smith back. DNP in first game. Crabtree isn't as effective when aggressive corners jam at line but CAR doesn't have a strong secondary. Vernon Davis also was out early in first game and is a difficult match up for CAR LB's. Luke K is a beast but weakness is pass coverage. Greg Hardy needs a big game, as well as Star L against a good SF o-line. CAR offense worries me and not sure if they score more than 17. I never bet against my Panthers but might go with 1H under. Weather looks great, sunny, no wind and 55-60 degrees.

[Pick'nParlays]

nice thread so far

[C-Gold]

Kaepernick loves throwing to Crabtree. That is and has always been his favorite receiver. Now he has him back and all the team does is wins.

[austintx05]

C-gold, any concern on kaepernick in the pocket? He was missing his receivers and some weren't even close in gb?

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

SF is the best play of the week. They are going back to the SB.

That's tough to say. Kaep has had a pretty down year, since his SB appearance last year.

[C-Gold]

C-gold, any concern on kaepernick in the pocket? He was missing his receivers and some weren't even close in gb?

He made some hard throws last week in those conditions.

He made a lot of hard throws outside the numbers. These are longer, timing throws that travel further and are more risky. Bellicheck always tried to force Peyton Manning to throw outside the numbers. Kaep did it real well last week.

Plus he really likes throwing to Crabtree and he has been a lot better with having him back. Crab, Vernon Davis and Boldin are all better than anybody Carolina could throw out there.

Cam will have enormous pressure on him at home, even though they are a dog and this is a guy with a history of immaturity.

49ers win.

[ebelisle22]

I guarantee Carolina wins this game.

[RavensFan2k3]

I guarantee Carolina wins this game.

Really?

[C-Gold]

SF takes them. Best bet of the week.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Panthers defense allowed second-fewest points in NFL that's why they will win !!!

Many comparisons have been made between quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton. They have nearly an identical completion percentage in passing. Newton has 3 more touchdowns than Kap on the season. Less than 200 yards separate the two in total passing yards for the season. Kap has rushed 92 times for 524 yards and 4 touchdowns. Newton has rushed 111 times for 585 yards and 6 touchdowns. Much of Carolina's pressure converges from the outside, where Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson form what may be the best pair of defensive ends in the league. This isn't the same 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick we saw earlier in the season. WR Michael Crabtree is back and with the conditions nowhere close to what the 49ers faced last week in Green Bay. I see San Francisco's offense running game shut down. Wide receiver Michael Crabtree was still rehabbing an Achilles' injury in Week 10, and tight end Vernon Davis went out with a concussion in the second quarter In effect, Kaepernick had no open targets to throw to for much of the game. The Panthers have dominated this head to head series with 13 payouts in their last 16 meetings with the 49ers. The Panthers have covered 4 straight home games against the 49ers with 4 out of the last 5 meetings between the Panthers and 49ers at Carolina going over the total. Panthers defense allowed second-fewest points in NFL (241). QB Cam Newton has 11,299 yards passing in his first three seasons, third-most in NFL history. Newton has 2,032 yards rushing in first three seasons, most by quarterback in league history. Without a doubt, Kap and Crabtree will have to keep their magic alive in Carolina. That’s the only way San Francisco will leave Charlotte with a victory in my option. My bet Carolina as a pick at home with Pinnacle.
PS:. All stats with power point rating are from J.J. Bacaus power point analysis based on stat's, which I consider him one of best in the NFL 80% True has the game 6 point advantage Carolina.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[cpay]

Good pick harry same yesterday on NE. How about over under harry

[dnwjdl]

[jpot34]

Having excellent receivers don't mean sheet if you don't have time to find them! Good luck, Kap!!!!!

[navyblue81]

I usually love your write-ups and agree with you...but this was one game where I disagreed with ya. We'll see what happens, but I think Carolina is the better team, and the more rested team. The Niners don't play well against teams who smash them back in the mouth.

[C-Gold]

Easiest game of the week

CHA CHING!!!

[C-Gold]

Scam Newton fails again.

First of all Cam Newton had forever to throw in the pocket. That is great if you are handing the ball off, running play action and the occasional pass and have a defense behind you. Look at what happened to Cam when he had to throw the ball down field later in the game. Even with excellent offensive line play he failed. Even with that bogus helmet to helmet bail out call he failed. He threw an awful pick.

Running quarterbacks aren't build to play from behind. Guys like Andrew Luck are.

[C-Gold]

Haters gonna hate