1. 12-30-13 08:59 AM #1
    WhatALoser
    WhatALoser's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-30-13
    Posts: 278
    Betpoints: 13

    First post ever and 49ers at Packers is screaming

    San Fran 49ers -2.5(-110)

    First post, small time gambler here but indeed, I am a loser. There was -1 and -2 available with juice early on but for the most part this is the number available now. I very much doubt this will stay at 2.5.

    What I saw yesterday was an uneasy, frightened QB in A.Rodgers who quite frankly isn't ready to start a playoff game against a top notch defense. It's one thing to pick apart a poor Bears defense and throw a game winning TD against an incompetent safety in Chris Conte but it's completely another thing to pick apart a defense who, heading into the Cardinal game yesterday, has given up the fifth fewest yards per play this season(4.8). Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers is just flat out awful and needs to go, pronto. His defense has struggled in their last 3 games against the 49ers and this weekend will be no different, especially with LB Clay Mathews out and Nick Perry struggling with a foot injury. Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree's return makes San Fran that more dangerous and it's unrealistic to expect this Packer defense to hold this 49er offense to under 30 points. The weather is expected to be cold and snowy which is probably part of the reason why it's so low but I don't mind one bit because San Fran can ground and pound with the best of them. I wouldn't waste my hard earned cash on the Packers even at home, this just isn't the spot.
    Last edited by WhatALoser; 12-30-13 at 11:38 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 12-30-13 09:10 AM #2
    mikemca
    Update Status
    mikemca's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-10
    Posts: 10,047
    Betpoints: 98

    Like it


    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 12-30-13 09:13 AM #3
    Mr KLC
    Mr KLC's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-19-07
    Posts: 30,594
    Betpoints: 292

    Welcome to the board. GL!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 12-30-13 09:21 AM #4
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    SF not a good cold weather team

    Be careful
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 12-30-13 09:26 AM #5
    Dirty Sanchez
    Two time SBR Academy Award winner
    Dirty Sanchez's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-10
    Posts: 16,031
    Betpoints: 26

    Get back to the newbie forum and think about your future at SBR before making such rash posts
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 12-30-13 10:00 AM #6
    WhatALoser
    WhatALoser's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-30-13
    Posts: 278
    Betpoints: 13

    Quick correction and is exactly why I'm a loser, Clay Matthews has not been ruled out. If he does play, he will obviously play with a cast of some sort which will make tackling in the snow if there is some, that more difficult.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 12-30-13 10:10 AM #7
    Dirty Sanchez
    Two time SBR Academy Award winner
    Dirty Sanchez's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-10
    Posts: 16,031
    Betpoints: 26

    Quote Originally Posted by WhatALoser View Post
    Quick correction and is exactly why I'm a loser, Clay Matthews has not been ruled out. If he does play, he will obviously play with a cast of some sort which will make tackling in the snow if there is some, that more difficult.
    Also makes punching in the nuts more painful
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 12-30-13 10:13 AM #8
    crustyme
    dont i look killer?
    crustyme's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-29-10
    Posts: 16,896
    Betpoints: 39

    refs are on the packers.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 12-30-13 10:14 AM #9
    slacker00
    slacker00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-06-05
    Posts: 12,262
    Betpoints: 15653

    Quote Originally Posted by Dirty Sanchez View Post
    Also makes punching in the nuts more painful
    It's made out of NERF. It's not like the old NFL days when players would basically play with a metal pipe in their sleeve.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 12-30-13 10:31 AM #10
    Madison
    Madison's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-16-11
    Posts: 5,595
    Betpoints: 13485

    Am I mistaken or did Arz throw for 400 yds against them yesterday. Little concerning??
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 12-30-13 10:37 AM #11
    coogs08
    coogs08's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-30-09
    Posts: 96
    Betpoints: 815

    I'm not sure if I will be making a play on this game, but if was to, my initial lean is on the Packers solely due to their offensive capabilities.

    Eddie Lacy is a horse back there and I think Rodgers and Cobb were able to shake a lot of rust off against the Bears. Cobb looked great on his first TD catch, his route running was crisp and will only get better in the next game. With Rodgers having two of his top receivers back, the opposing defense can't solely focus on shutting down Jordy Nelson (as we saw against the bears). This will also open up the running game for Lacy as SF can't stack the box. SF's defense is definitely legit, don't get me wrong, but Rodgers gets the ball out of there as quick as any QB in the league, and can create huge plays off simple slant routes should SF blitz.

    Apologies for rambling on, best of luck on your bet!
    Last edited by coogs08; 12-30-13 at 10:42 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 12-30-13 10:40 AM #12
    InTheDrink
    Drinker of the Year
    InTheDrink's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-09
    Posts: 23,983
    Betpoints: 527

    Welcome Loser!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 12-30-13 10:48 AM #13
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-13-09
    Posts: 19,530
    Betpoints: 8638

    This is easy. The 49ers are the second best team in the NFC. Green Bay's defense is just terrible. -2 1/2 is a gift.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 12-30-13 10:55 AM #14
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,601
    Betpoints: 32273

    Welcome aboard
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 12-30-13 11:10 AM #15
    WhatALoser
    WhatALoser's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-30-13
    Posts: 278
    Betpoints: 13

    In this day in age, stats are overrated. Back in the days, a 1,000 yard rusher was considered great, now not so much. We can go back and forth with stats all day but from a handicapping perspective, I don't see how anybody can feel great betting the Packers here. I see no edge because well, there is none. I still have concerns over that injured ankle of Lacy's and Cobb was only targeted a few times against that very poor Bears defense. If home field and weather is enough to make a bet on Green Bay +2.5, I respect that but don't agree with it. I know I would probably need a full touchdown.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 12-30-13 11:26 AM #16
    indio
    .
    indio's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-03-11
    Posts: 751
    Betpoints: 3954

    I agree with you that San Fran will beat Green Bay rather handily, but was it really necessary to use all bold letters? Gave up reading it after 2 sentences cause I was getting a headache.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 12-30-13 12:18 PM #17
    slacker00
    slacker00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-06-05
    Posts: 12,262
    Betpoints: 15653

    Quote Originally Posted by coogs08 View Post
    I'm not sure if I will be making a play on this game, but if was to, my initial lean is on the Packers solely due to their offensive capabilities.
    There are 3 sides to a football team: offense, defense & special teams. Think of a 3 legged stool.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 12-30-13 05:40 PM #18
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,601
    Betpoints: 32273

    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    There are 3 sides to a football team: offense, defense & special teams. Think of a 3 legged stool.
    Exactly.
    My pee-wee coach told us that a long time ago, if you win 2 out of the 3 or better, you will win the game. (most times)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 12-30-13 05:46 PM #19
    WhatALoser
    WhatALoser's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-30-13
    Posts: 278
    Betpoints: 13

    Going off of Packers head coach McCarthy's press conference, he sure had a tone of a guy who thought Clay Matthews was going to be out. 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers is dealing with a hamstring issue but should be ready to play. A lot of 3's at ev are popping up for SF and 2.5's at -120. Pinny -117.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 12-30-13 05:58 PM #20
    RickyRoma
    RickyRoma's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-24-13
    Posts: 624
    Betpoints: 421

    49ers are the play here or nothing imo, but if rodgers plays well packers could pull it off
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 12-30-13 06:27 PM #21
    thechaoz
    2019 SBRs Toughest Poster
    thechaoz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-23-09
    Posts: 12,155
    Betpoints: 35902

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    SF not a good cold weather team
    Be careful
    Wrong. They are built for the cold weather. Great defense, great special teams, 3 headed monster at rb, great kicker and an offense with a lot of weapons.

    They rolled up into new England last year in similar conditions and dropped massive points
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 12-31-13 09:02 AM #22
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    This is easy. The 49ers are the second best team in the NFC. Green Bay's defense is just terrible. -2 1/2 is a gift.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 12-31-13 09:07 AM #23
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    Taking a team that is traveling 3,000 miles to play in -4 degree temperatures in a hostile enviorment
    laying points with an eratic QB with an akward throwing motion is NOT a gift.

    Take the revenge minded home dog with the best QB in the NFL
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 12-31-13 09:38 AM #24
    slacker00
    slacker00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-06-05
    Posts: 12,262
    Betpoints: 15653

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Taking a team that is traveling 3,000 miles to play in -4 degree temperatures in a hostile enviorment
    laying points with an eratic QB with an akward throwing motion is NOT a gift.

    Take the revenge minded home dog with the best QB in the NFL
    Revenge? SF has rolled GB 3 times straight. Do you know what happens to 0-3 teams in this spot? They go 0-4.

    Also, GB is a losing team when the temp gets below freezing. Cold is about defense and GB's D flat out sucks.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 12-31-13 09:41 AM #25
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 94,045
    Betpoints: 7600

    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Revenge? SF has rolled GB 3 times straight. Do you know what happens to 0-3 teams in this spot? They go 0-4.

    Also, GB is a losing team when the temp gets below freezing. Cold is about defense and GB's D flat out sucks.

    to be fair the last two meetings were in sf- back to back games for gb. gb defense cant stop this sf team. the big factor might be the weather. it could help gb somewhat if its really cold like they say its gonna be.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 12-31-13 09:44 AM #26
    slacker00
    slacker00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-06-05
    Posts: 12,262
    Betpoints: 15653

    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    to be fair the last two meetings were in sf- back to back games for gb. gb defense cant stop this sf team. the big factor might be the weather. it could help gb somewhat if its really cold like they say its gonna be.
    Colder weather only favors defense and special teams, which ironically favors SF.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 12-31-13 09:47 AM #27
    packerd_00
    packerd_00's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-22-13
    Posts: 17,614
    Betpoints: 3585

    Ill take the Packers in this one thanks. If you think he will be tentative in this game your kidding yourself.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 12-31-13 09:52 AM #28
    slacker00
    slacker00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-06-05
    Posts: 12,262
    Betpoints: 15653

    Quote Originally Posted by packerd_00 View Post
    Ill take the Packers in this one thanks. If you think he will be tentative in this game your kidding yourself.
    Even if Rodgers hangs 35 on SF, which is unlikely, it probably won't be enough.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 12-31-13 09:57 AM #29
    packerd_00
    packerd_00's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-22-13
    Posts: 17,614
    Betpoints: 3585

    Well see man I can see this being a tight game,would sooner just sit back and enjoy.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 12-31-13 09:59 AM #30
    face
    face's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-31-11
    Posts: 14,740
    Betpoints: 201

    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Colder weather only favors defense and special teams, which ironically favors SF.
    such a good point
    glad we have slacker posts
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 12-31-13 09:59 AM #31
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 94,045
    Betpoints: 7600

    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Colder weather only favors defense and special teams, which ironically favors SF.

    this statement is incorrect and you know that.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 12-31-13 10:02 AM #32
    Snowball
    Snowball's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-15-09
    Posts: 30,020
    Betpoints: 3768

    No way I would bet against Green Bay at sub-freezing temps in Lambeau.
    San Fran is walking into a trap.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 12-31-13 10:18 AM #33
    slacker00
    slacker00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-06-05
    Posts: 12,262
    Betpoints: 15653

    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    this statement is incorrect and you know that.
    Look up the data. Look at games below 16 degrees, most scores look like 20-17 or 23-20.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 12-31-13 10:26 AM #34
    slacker00
    slacker00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-06-05
    Posts: 12,262
    Betpoints: 15653

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    No way I would bet against Green Bay at sub-freezing temps in Lambeau.
    San Fran is walking into a trap.
    GB is 2-5 ATS and 3-4 straight up in the last 7 home playoff games below freezing. Nothing impressive about that.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 12-31-13 10:37 AM #35
    thunderous
    Update your status
    thunderous's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-05-12
    Posts: 1,870
    Betpoints: 7111

    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    GB is 2-5 ATS and 3-4 straight up in the last 7 home playoff games below freezing. Nothing impressive about that.
    Anyone can make up stats like these....they don't mean anything.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
12 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »