I will be making picks for the playoffs. I usually like to stay on a small amount of games and up my bet. I'm not a high roller so I may lay down a couple hundred here or there for decent returns. Feel free to follow and leave feedback, but I do warn. I am not here to act as if I know what will happen, I do my research heavily and I know the sport pretty well. For week #17 I went a very nice 7/7 on a 7 game parlay, which isn't normal for me at all. I usually only bet 3 or maybe 4 games if Im lucky.
The Games I will be playing this week:
NO @ PHI
Early preview, legitimate potential shooting with two of the best offenses in the league on the same field. Sometimes two great offenses seem to counter each other and both lay an egg when playing each other, but I don't think thats what happens here. One of the biggest drawbacks so far is NO clear road-woes, they are a totally different team on the road. And the Eagles however haven't played well at home for whatever reason. Both defenses have their moments when they lay down and play dead & rise to the occasion. Without seeing a line, I would intuitively lean towards the over, assuming it be about 54.5.
GB @ SF
Will really be surprised if this is a PK, it would make me seriously consider pounding the 49ers as I did in week 17 vs Arizona. Rodgers may be back, but will still be receiving treatment on his collarbone up until the game, and vs a defense like SFo that could spell disaster. Not to mention his inaccuracy vs Chicago in week 17, which probably is attributed to the time he spent with the injury. But this is one of the leagues best and most ferocious defenses, and Rodgers will have to be sharp from go. SFo on offense easily has every advantage possible, Gore in the playoffs is money and the Packers run defense is pretty bad. Also Kaep, seems to be getting into a groove, which is why early I'd probably be leaning SF. Especially in a PK & Over 46.5
KC @ IND
Indy spanked the chiefs by multiple scores last time they met up, and they meet again. More of the same? Or Revenge?. If week 17 was any indicator, either Reid is a super coach or this team is deep and talented. I'd meet somewhere in the middle of the two previous statements, and expect Indy to do what Indy does which is look like world beaters the past two weeks then lay an egg in the playoffs. Andrew Luck is quietly having one of the best seasons of anyone not named Peyton Manning and Donald Brown and dare I say Trent Richardson are starting to hit stride. But in comes KC who has a knack for keeping things close with that stingy d and very un-stingy offense. I'd expect Charles to be fully rested from what would be 2 weeks off and for Indy to get a full dose of him. Even in week 17 vs Indy, the Jags had success through the air with Chade Henne. I'd expect KC to have much success on offense and to sick Houston & Hali on Luck. Its the playoffs lean the better DEFENSE + BETTER RUN GAME. I'm leaning KC on the road, expecting about a Indy -2.5 line. I'd jump all over that and the under which could be 43.5.
Official picks come around mid week, with final picks 9am sunday sat morning.
Here we are again, with me taking the under in a philadelphia game. I just don't see the score getting out of hand. Weather in Philadelphia is going to be terrible and freezing. Theres already snow heavily blanketing the city of Philadelphia (I live here). The weather conditions combined with the playoff atmosphere should be enough to slow both offenses down. The Saints offensively struggle either way on the road. In a game that could go either way, the under may be the surest play. If you don't like the under here, I am leaning to the Saints outright. The eagles secondary hasn't had a chance to show how bad it is and Eagles' DC Billy Davis should get a lot of credit for that. But in comes Sproles, Graham, and Colston vs a secondary that struggles to tackle in space. Final - 27-21 or 30-24
KC @ IND PLAY- Chiefs +2.5 or Under 46.5
The last time these two teams met in week 16, Indy rolled. The Chiefs were shut down, and Luck played great football. The difference is this time is KC gets Justin Houston back who makes a world of difference for their already great defense. Jamaal Charles is an extra week fresh after receiving his 2nd bye last week and I expect KC to get revenge on an unpredictable flimsy Colts team. If you aren't liking Chiefs + the points, another decent play for this week is the under. In what figures to be a defensive battle, with both teams establishing their ground game the under is a good play. KC who has a tough time scoring, and Ind who can put points up but will have to do it against one of the leagues premier defenses. Final 24-14 or 23-17
GB @ 49ERS PLAY- Over 46.5
Easily the hardest game to call of the three. These two teams opened the regular season up with an old fashion shootout, which had Kaepernick play his best overall game of the year for a 49ers 34- 28 win. Kaepernick will have his chances to put up points vs a horrid GB defense, and the same can be expected from Rodgers as he continues to shake off rust. I find it very hard to bet against Rodgers, even a hampered rodgers which is why I will take the safe play and take the over. Everything about this game right now screams shootout. Rodgers getting into a rhythm, and Kaep vs a bad secondary. And the over is low enough for my liking in this spot. Final - 27-24 or 28-21
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