[Limey]

The week started well, with my biggest single bet of the season on the Miami/Carolina 'under' proving a winner. I anticipate one or two more bets on top of what I will outline here, and will add them later if so.

I have a strange feeling of doom about this Sunday for some reason, but the last time I felt like that I went 4-1 so fingers crossed for this lot:
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Indianapolis @ Baltimore
It isn't terribly hard to imagine a 'let-down' here from Indy off that extraordinary escape versus New England, still undefeated, and with two division games to follow this encounter. The Ravens meanwhile are in a spot where they will be desperate not to slip to a .500 record.

More importantly, I have the Colts defense down as over-rated in terms of points allowed, the D's mirage of strength being highlighted by a rank of 30th in third-down conversions allowed. The Colts figure to really struggle running the ball here, leaving the Ravens the more balanced offense in the game. Add to that the fact that the Pats' fairly average defense provided something of a blueprint in frustrating Peyton Manning last Sunday (until they ran out of steam late), one the Ravens should be able to follow. Obviously, the Colts are quite capable of winning this game, but I give a decent edge to Baltimore.

I also fancy this game to go over; these are two highly capable offenses facing defenses that are both due to surrender more points than they have done so far. Mystic Limey forsees: IND 23 - 31 BAL
Ravens +1 for 5 units
OVER 44.5 3 units
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Atlanta @ NYG
I've opposed the Falcons twice recently and been rewarded both times with them losing at Dallas and Carolina. Surprisingly, I still have them as a tad over-rated on my highly-classified secret statistics. According to those same supersecret numbers the Giants are due an upturn on defense. In this game, outside the comfy confines of a dome, I like the Giants running game versus Atlanta's weak defensive front. The Giants, by the way, lead the league in defending on third down, while the 'dirty birds' rank 31st. And despite their recent slump, Eli and co. are even passing at a higher yards-per-attempt than much-fawned-over razor salesman Matt Ryan. Mystic Limey forsees: ATL 16 - 29 NYG
Giants -6.5 for 4 units
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San Francisco @ Green Bay
The 49ers are a hard team to judge, but my mysterious numbers say they are over-rated - which is not great for a 4-5 team. They'll be battling hard here, no doubt, trying to reach .500 - while the Packers look to avoid falling to that mediocre mark and launch a playoff push. A problem for San Fran here is that they don't successfully pressure the quarterback, which we all know is a key to preventing Aaron Rodgers from succeeding. Another problem is the 49ers poor defensive performance on third down. Unless Green Bay really gassed themselves with that great effort versus Dallas last weak, I think they ought to win this game handily. Mystic Limey forsees: SF 16 - 34 GB
Packers -6.5 for 4 units
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New Jersey Jets @ New England
I find the 10.5 spread too rich for my blood. I expect the Patriots to exact revenge for their narrow defeat at Giants Stadium early in the season, but around ten points looks a probable margin of victory. However, I see two decent offenses up against two 'nothing special' defenses here; New England figure to struggle with the Jets running game, and on the other side of the ball it's a different Tom Brady now than the one who played in the road game. The teams should exchange scores fairly regularly, and I think we can safely count on their being no easing up from the Patriots if they build a lead, if you catch my drift.
Mystic Limey forsees: NYJ: 20 - 34 NE
OVER 45 for 5 units
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Cincinnatti @ Oakland
I'm a big Bengals believer, bud - but I tread warily on a ten-point line for a trip to the West Coast off a huge division win, and against a fresh QB. Still, however much I tend to avoid 'over' bets in general, I can't resist adding my third of the week here. My locked-in-a-bank-vault stats say that Oakland are due an upturn in scoring and Cincy due an upturn in points allowed, and 36 is an awfully low number. Mystic Limey forsees: CIN 24 - 16 OAK
OVER 36 for 4 units
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Philadelphia @ Chicago
The Bears are in something of a tailspin and Cutler isn't exactly flavour of the month. WHo DID get the better of that trade? This isn't an easy spot for Philly; another roadtrip after getting back from the West Coast in the early hours of Monday morning. However, what do the Bears do here on offense? Do they keep throwing, against the team that forces more disastreous pass plays (sacks or INTS) than anyone in the league? Or do they try to pound the ball, putting their so-far-terrible running game up against a defense that has allowed only 3.7 yards per carry? The Eagles don't face such tricky dilemmas, so barring a dismal day from Donovan this should be a good day for green.
Mystic Limey forsees: PHI 27 - 13 CHI
Eagles -3 for 5 units
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Constructive criticism welcome.

[Saluki09]

What's your take on Jags -9?

[Limey]

What's your take on Jags -9?

I can't see the Bills winning the game, natch, but I just find the Jags difficult to trust at nearly 10. Just a 'feel' thing. Maybe also 'cause the Jags screwed me in a similar spot against the pitiful Chiefs a couple of weeks ago - !

[Limey]

Adding two picks, both 'unders' drawn from a statistical approach.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay under 50.5 3 units
I lost last week's 'under' 51 on New Orleans by one point, at St. Louis. The Saints are going to post some unders soon, and I don't want to miss out.

Tennessee at Houston under 48.5 4 units
The Titans are so far 'over' the totals this season it's ridiculous. More importantly, they are statistically almost certain to fall back within the normal range of performance against the total by season's end. A little worrying that these two produced 65 points earlier this year, but one of the country's top pro handicappers pointed out to me that second seasonal encounters between teams tend to produce fewer points than the first meeting.

[Fizz]

Sounds good.

[Sports Cruncher]

GL today Limey, though it looks like both of us can't have a good day...

[Limey]

I'm adding a pick in the later games.

San Diego @ Denver
I believe San Diego to be a bit over-rated in offensive scoring. I figure that behind their league-low yards per carry they have to throw, throw and throw some more here, which could set up some turnovers for a hungry and hurt (emotionally) Broncos unit. Sure, Chris Simms completed nothing last week, but it's a different game coming off the bench to starting after a full week of practise reps. With the line having soared up to almost a touchdown, I just can't resist taking a shot on Denver to beat the Chargers just as they did earlier in the season.
Denver +6.5 for 3 units and Denver ML 3.0 for 2 units

[Limey]

Week 11 finishes 5-6-1 for me, but with a 2 unit profit because the winning bets were mostly where I staked more units, including my biggest bet of the season on the 'under' at Carolina on Thursday night. The nice easy under in the Houston/Tennessee game tonight nudged me into profit after a bad Sunday. Onwards and upwards......