[C-Gold]

Just keep on winning and winning and winning. I do write ups for all the games but I have been trying to consolidate down to my 3 to 5 top games. Last week I was 2-1 and my Seattle and Redskins write ups were dead on. The Giants shoddy offense line was no match for Seattle and Eli was going to throw picks. Pretty obvious now right? Well hindsight is always 20/20. I also saw that the Redskins poor offensive line argument was a shoddy shield for black idiots and RG3andout supporters. Kirk Cousins filled in off the bench to play much better than RG3and10 has all year. The only game I lost was Philly and Philly had been getting some bad calls in the past few weeks, Arizona game anyone?



I am not going to do all the write ups tonight. I tried a different exercise this week. I wrote out all of the games and I guessed what the spread was. I am going to post the results to that thought experiment and get into the break downs and picks later.

[C-Gold]

Miami @ Buffalo

My Guess was Buffalo +3.5
The actual is Buffalo +2.5 with the public heavily siding with Miami.

So the line should be about Buffalo +3 right? I know that the public loves betting on these need to win teams and plus Miami beat New England in a heavily watched game last week. I feel like if the line is Miami -3 they will get a lot of action so the books would give this game the hook to make it Buffalo +3.5. I am surprised Buffalo is only +2.5. Books must think Miami can't go into Pittsburgh and Buffalo in December and win.

[C-Gold]

New Orleans @ Carolina

My guess was Carolina -4
The actual is Carolina -3

My guess was Carolina -4, if you would have said OK you are 1 point off, I would have guessed Carolina -5. Carolina is getting more of the bets and this doesn't shock me. The public sees what the Saints do on the road and people see these teams splitting their season series. People get that NO at home and NO on the road are two totally different teams. You could blow them out at home and then lose on the road. This is the big 1PM game so I think 3 actually is a very likely win margin but I think Carolina should be laying more for equal action.

[C-Gold]

Min @ Cin

My guess was Cincy -6.
The actual is Cincy -7.5

Yeah I was thinking Cincy -6 or -6.5. This doesn't surprise me. Matt Cassell is a lot better than Pond scum or the bi QB.

[C-Gold]

Denver @ Houston

My guess was Denver -14.5
The actual is Denver -10.5

This spread looks too low for such a public team. Houston isn't cold, I would guess this line would be more. Maybe that's why the public is overwhelmingly taking Denver here. I mean look at the psychology, who would actually want to bet on the Houston Texans here?

[C-Gold]

Ten @ Jack

My guess was Jacksonville +6
The actual is Jacksonville +5.5

Funny thing is the line probably will go up and I will be exactly right.

[C-Gold]

Indy @ KC

My guess was KC -4
The actual is KC -7

Yes that was just a bad estimation on my part. I see it. After thinking about it more though, I think maybe 6.5 is a little bit better line?

[C-Gold]

Dal @ Wash

I heard this line ahead of time. Washington getting 2.5 points at home. No point in guessing what I already know.

[C-Gold]

Cleveland @ Jets

My guess was Pick'em
The actual is Jets -2.5

Yeah that sounds about right, I thought about this for like 2 seconds. I don't care about this game.

[C-Gold]

TB @ STL

My guess Rams -3
The actual is rams -5.5

Don't watch the rams enough, I was thinking -3.5 or -3. This line doesn't seem crazy but it might be a little high.

[C-Gold]

Arizona @ Seattle

My guess Seattle -7
The actual is Seattle -10.5

Arizona isn't a push over team but this game is in Seattle. Yeah maybe -7 was a little too light but I think -10.5 is too high. After thinking about it maybe Seattle -9.5 is a more fair line or maybe even -10.

[C-Gold]

Giants @ Detroit

My guess was Lions -10
The actual is Lions -10

Got it exactly right.

[C-Gold]

New England @ Baltimore

My guess was Baltimore -3
The actual is Baltimore -2.5

Keep in mind this game should have a lot of action. This game will probably be the most bet on game of the week. The funny thing is I was thinking more Baltimore -3.5 for a 2nd guess but they do have the short week after the MNF win and people are talking about them being a sleeper dark horse playoff team. BB also doesn't lose a lot of back to back games. I think -3 is the best line but as I mentioned this game will have a lot of action.

[C-Gold]

Oakland @ SD

My guess was SD -4
The actual is SD -10

Yeah I didn't think about this game much. I was way off. When thinking about it more I don't know if I'd quite go 10 but yeah it should be 7,7.5 or more.

[C-Gold]

Pitt @ GB

My guess is GB -1
The actual is ?

I see no line with Aaron Rodgers health in question.

[C-Gold]

Chicago @ Philly

My guess was Philly -3
The actual is Philly -3

I feel like an odds maker.

[C-Gold]

Miami @ Buffalo

My Guess was Buffalo +3.5
The actual is Buffalo +2.5 with the public heavily siding with Miami.

So the line should be about Buffalo +3 right? I know that the public loves betting on these need to win teams and plus Miami beat New England in a heavily watched game last week. I feel like if the line is Miami -3 they will get a lot of action so the books would give this game the hook to make it Buffalo +3.5. I am surprised Buffalo is only +2.5. Books must think Miami can't go into Pittsburgh and Buffalo in December and win.

So Miami has to win, they actually looked good last week beating New England, Buffalo is missing their starting QB and starting a bum from Duke and the line isn't even 3? Of course the public is heavily backing Miami here.

I don't like it. Too fishy for me. Miami should be on the other side of 3, laying 3.5, not 2.5 and getting hammered by the public. I know Buff beat Miami in Miami but they have some injuries on the DL.

[C-Gold]

New Orleans @ Carolina

My guess was Carolina -4
The actual is Carolina -3

My guess was Carolina -4, if you would have said OK you are 1 point off, I would have guessed Carolina -5. Carolina is getting more of the bets and this doesn't shock me. The public sees what the Saints do on the road and people see these teams splitting their season series. People get that NO at home and NO on the road are two totally different teams. You could blow them out at home and then lose on the road. This is the big 1PM game so I think 3 actually is a very likely win margin but I think Carolina should be laying more for equal action.

Saints on the road
@ Pats lost 27-20
@ Jets lost 20-26
@ Atlanta won 17-13
@ Seattle lost 7-34
@ St. Louis lost 16-27

The Saints lost every single one of those games against the spread.

I picked the Saints to beat the Panthers at home a couple of weeks ago, but it is going the other way folks. Yes Carolina got blown out but they will win this game and the spread should be higher.

It is not popular to say but Drew Brees is overrated.

The Saints do have a better offense and a way better coach than Carolina, but Carolina's defense is extra strong at home and they will have the Saints in more bad 3rd down down and distances.

Carolina might only win by 3 for the push, but I think they win by more. If the Saints somehow pull off the upset it will be due to excellent coaching on Payton/Ryan's part or it will be a Ron Rivera collapse.

[Huego]

Opinions on Atlanta @ San Fran? Line is all the way up to 14.

[iHateBetting12]

Saints on the road
@ Pats lost 27-20
@ Jets lost 20-26
@ Atlanta won 17-13
@ Seattle lost 7-34
@ St. Louis lost 16-27

The Saints lost every single one of those games against the spread.

I picked the Saints to beat the Panthers at home a couple of weeks ago, but it is going the other way folks. Yes Carolina got blown out but they will win this game and the spread should be higher.

It is not popular to say but Drew Brees is overrated.

The Saints do have a better offense and a way better coach than Carolina, but Carolina's defense is extra strong at home and they will have the Saints in more bad 3rd down down and distances.

Carolina might only win by 3 for the push, but I think they win by more. If the Saints somehow pull off the upset it will be due to excellent coaching on Payton/Ryan's part or it will be a Ron Rivera collapse.

I saw this line originally and wanted to jump on it. -3?! With how bad the Saints are ATS and SU on the road, not to mention as a team overall. I mean law of averages and probability has to fall into play at some point and I think Saints cover the spread FINALLY on the road. The Saints have to know how poorly they play on the road and be prepared to put it all on the line. Big division game. Any thoughts?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Saints on the road
@ Pats lost 27-20
@ Jets lost 20-26
@ Atlanta won 17-13
@ Seattle lost 7-34
@ St. Louis lost 16-27

The Saints lost every single one of those games against the spread.

I picked the Saints to beat the Panthers at home a couple of weeks ago, but it is going the other way folks. Yes Carolina got blown out but they will win this game and the spread should be higher.

It is not popular to say but Drew Brees is overrated.

The Saints do have a better offense and a way better coach than Carolina, but Carolina's defense is extra strong at home and they will have the Saints in more bad 3rd down down and distances.

Carolina might only win by 3 for the push, but I think they win by more. If the Saints somehow pull off the upset it will be due to excellent coaching on Payton/Ryan's part or it will be a Ron Rivera collapse.

Riverboat Ron is on a roll now. He has overcome the close losses that have plagued Car since his arrival. Have full confidence that Rivera will have his team prepared and ready to go. Game comes down to Newton imo. If he plays well Car wins. If he plays poorly Car is in big trouble.

[jimjones0320]

so what are your selections? Am i missing something?

Thanks and great season!

[C-Gold]

I saw this line originally and wanted to jump on it. -3?! With how bad the Saints are ATS and SU on the road, not to mention as a team overall. I mean law of averages and probability has to fall into play at some point and I think Saints cover the spread FINALLY on the road. The Saints have to know how poorly they play on the road and be prepared to put it all on the line. Big division game. Any thoughts?

Yeah but sometimes teams are bad for a reason.

If I said go run 2 miles on the tread mill and give me your time.
Then go run 2 miles on the tread mill and jack up the incline to 6.0 and give me your time.

Yeah you know your time is going to get worse but what are you going to do about it? Some teams are build more for grass and some teams are built more for domes and faster games.

To me teams like the 49ers and maybe Carolina are the ultimate grass teams.
The Saints are the other extreme, nobody wants to chase Darren Sproles around in a dome. Nobody wants to chase Reggie Bush or Shady McCoy or Lesean Jackson around on turf.

Look at Carolina's front 7 on defense. They are fantastic and they are even better at home. Everybody can see that Seattle's defense is better at home but a lot of people can't see that Carolina and Baltimore's defenses are also a lot better at home.

[C-Gold]

Riverboat Ron is on a roll now. He has overcome the close losses that have plagued Car since his arrival. Have full confidence that Rivera will have his team prepared and ready to go. Game comes down to Newton imo. If he plays well Car wins. If he plays poorly Car is in big trouble.

To me it's not just about in game adjustments or play calling or any of that.

Carolina has a dynamic QB in Cam Newton and they don't even utilize all of his skills. They are trying to turn him into Matt Ryan when he clearly has a different skill set than Matt Ryan. Cam's pocket awareness and internal clock is off. He can improve it over time but they need to play him more like a mobile QB.

[C-Gold]

so what are your selections? Am i missing something?

Thanks and great season!

No you haven't missed anything, I haven't got around to write ups for all the games and I don't think I will this week.

[C-Gold]

My co-worker says Oakland is the lock of the week and that they might win outright but I just don't watch a lot of Raider games. I saw them lose @ KC and I saw them lose @ Dallas. I saw some of the MNF vs SD.

[2daBank]

My co-worker says Oakland is the lock of the week and that they might win outright but I just don't watch a lot of Raider games. I saw them lose @ KC and I saw them lose @ Dallas. I saw some of the MNF vs SD.

I've watched few of oak gms on rewind besides the ones u mentioned. They certainly nothing special and I've never called anything lock of the week but I think oak a solid bet. Mainly cause a defense as bad as chargers has no business laying 10 to anyone IMO, Jennings has been running w a lot of power, whatever that qb name is has seemed to be developing some decent chemistry w steeter. Again they nothing special and I don't know about u but I have sd defense ranked way down near bottom of the league, sure they mask it well w the ball control offense but I have no doubt not only can oak score they did a good job of confusing rivers 1st time.

[C-Gold]

Oakland already spanked SD earlier in the year.

SD is also a dog that won outright that is favored the following week. The spread is 9 now which I think is too high for this game. Maybe 7 maybe 7.5 but it really comes down to do you think Oakland will be a live dog? The line will also be shaded because SD has playoff implications.

Oakland has an offensive line that is built to run the ball and most of the games they lost were pretty close. Is McGloyn starting or Pryor?

[navyblue81]

Oakland's one of those teams I always have a hard time backing just because you never know what you're going to get. They tend to give up a ton of points...yet they can score a lot of points, too. I'm actually liking the over in the SD-Oak game.

[C-Gold]

My first play.

Cowboys/Redskins Over 52

Everybody knows Dallas has no defense and they are worse on the road.

Gave up 31 to detroit
49 to New Orleans
21 to a crappy Giants team
45 to the Bears backup QB
They also gave up 51 to Peyton Manning at home

Now Lee is out
Durrant is out
Ware will play hurt
Claiborne is 50/50
Hatcher and Selvie will play through injuries

Romo will get his points but Kurt Cousins should throw for 300 also. It is wet out there but the ONLY 2 things that can make this not go over are...

1. Field goals in the red zone
2. Shady officiating.

Another huge bonus is turnovers. Washington turned the ball over what, was it 5 or 7 times last week? Turnovers are fantastic for overs. It is wet and sloppy out there.

You know I don't play totals very often and I am 3-0 on totals this year. I like taking sides but if something looks easy I will go for it.

I was thinking about taking the sides in this game, actually Dallas but the Books think that the Redskins will keep it close. I don't see this game being 21-19 close, I see teams moving the ball and the Redskins putting up 27+ points. Both teams really should be in the 30's.

[navyblue81]

You still like the over in wind and rain? Weather up there looks really bad right now.

[C-Gold]

My 2nd pick is Carolina -3

It is tough because before this year started I saw Atlanta and the Saints fighting it out for the division and Carolina had a chance to be a surprise team. Picking Carolina here basically concedes that they win the division.


The Saints are only 5-4 in their last 9 games. Their struggles on the road are highly documented. Yeah they blew out Dallas and Carolina at home, but they are only 3-4 in their other games. Fans are fascinated by offense but look at the numbers. Losing by DD to the Rams, blown out in Seattle, losing to the Jets, they got lucky at home vs SF. People actually thought they had a chance to win at Seattle.

Carolina has one of the best front 7's in the game.
Carolina D gives up < 300 per game
Under 85 rush per game
Opposing QB's have a QB rating under 80

Carolina runs the ball and the Saints defense gives up rush yards. Sort of hard to run the ball when you are on the road getting blown out. This game will be different.

I personally think this spread should be closer to Carolina -6. That doesn't mean this game is a lock or anything. I do like betting on games with very good QB's like Brees getting a FG and maybe this game ends up a push but I just like Carolina to win here in this big game. I think Carolina earns the #2 seed in the NFC here today. The ball is certainly in their court, will Cam or Rivera mess it up because they certainly have a chance to get it.

[C-Gold]

You still like the over in wind and rain? Weather up there looks really bad right now.

It is 70 degrees in DC today.

Weather.com says
1PM will be cloudy (no rain) 70 degrees
2PM will be cloudy (no rain) 71 degrees
3PM will be scattered Thunder storms, rain, 71 degrees
4PM will be scattered thunder storms, rain, 71 degrees

2 shitty defenses
poor footing
Romo is a top 10 QB
Wash will be able to run the ball and have a passing QB in Cousins
Washington was a turnover machine last week

I told you I don't play totals very often but I am 3-0 on totals and I like this one.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

So carolina and dallas wash over any more cgold?

[navyblue81]

It is 70 degrees in DC today.

Weather.com says
1PM will be cloudy (no rain) 70 degrees
2PM will be cloudy (no rain) 71 degrees
3PM will be scattered Thunder storms, rain, 71 degrees
4PM will be scattered thunder storms, rain, 71 degrees

2 shitty defenses
poor footing
Romo is a top 10 QB
Wash will be able to run the ball and have a passing QB in Cousins
Washington was a turnover machine last week

I told you I don't play totals very often but I am 3-0 on totals and I like this one.

Fair enough. Weather is an issue in a lot of games today. They're calling for torrential thunderstorms and heavy wind in Charlotte today...just don't know what time in the afternoon it'll get there. Looking at the radar up there, it looks like nasty stuff is going to deck Charlotte. I like Carolina a lot, too, but I'm in the fantasy final with Drew Brees as my qb with $300 on the line and just can't root against him...or else I'd be all over Carolina, too.