[Bagman5]

This is a classic overreaction line. The Saints got their balls kicked in Seattle, like everyone does, and now all of a sudden they're only laying 3 at home in a prime time game? This is crazy. Carolina is a good team with a very good defense, but New Orleans is a better team and is crazy good at home, particularly in prime time. And we're talking about a Carolina team that was outplayed and lucky to win that game in Miami two weeks ago. I don't think they'll be successful enough running the ball to control tempo and stay on schedule, which will create a lot of obvious passing situations for Cam and allow Rob Ryan to unleash some blitzes. Also, you look at the quarterbacks the Panthers have faced this year, and I only see three good ones: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan (I use the term "good" with loosely with Ryan, too). All three of them have been in Carolina. The quarterbacks the Panthers have faced on the road this season are: EJ Manuel, Carson Palmer, Matt Cassell, Mike Glennon (In his 1st game), Colin Kaepernick and Ryan Tannehill. Drew Brees at home is simply a different animal, and I still don't trust that secondary. Not to mention they are still missing Charles Johnson. The Saints are 6-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 17 ppg and 2-0 in home prime time games, winning by an average of 26 ppg.

Bottom line, this line should be more like 5 or 6. Don't overreact to last week in Seattle on MNF, boys. I am locking in the Saints -3 (5x) for one of my bigger bets of this NFL season.

[Catchn_Picks]

Bagman…great write up.

Look…NO was dominated last week…it happens in SEA…ask another pretty good team SF.

Once the game got out of hand it didn't matter anymore. I had Over 46.5 and nobody even tried to score the last quarter.

Look up Brees or Payton after a blow out loss…scary good record. Mad respect for Cam this season but he will have to prove it to me in a dome versus this team with that crowd.

Actually the one form of defense that the Saints play pretty well is against the pass.

bol

[coitus_maximus]

Agreed, Take Saints large at -3.

[jpp9123]

Saints barely beat 49ers...arguably should have lost when the saints were at home. Carolina barely beat the 49ers but when the 49ers were at home. Carolina has beaten the patriots, saints lost to the patriots. Saints haven't played a good game in weeks, Carolina has been hot. These are all things to consider.

[2daBank]

Oddsmakers don't overreact from week to week... on a neutral field panthers are slight favs in this gm so I guess you giving saints 6 points for home field? While I agree that aints home field is one of the few places worth every bit of 3 points and maybe 4 that puts line right where it should be, maybe saints cover maybe they lose but books don't make a habit of screwing up a big time prime time line based off what happened last week...

U say panthers won't be able to run but the only way saints can limit run gms is by hurting their pass d, sure they can slow down panthers run gm if they hell bent on it but that will leave cam w opportunities much like Wilson had..

No clue what the game in Mia has to do w this week? That was panthers coming off a huge mon night win over the pats in a big time letdown spot and still finding a way to win.. I could just as easily point to saints getting a home gm vs sf gift wrapped on a bs roughing call.. This on the other hand is saints coming off a short week, one where their plane didn't leave sea till tues and facing another physical team while panthers had their gm wrapped up by halftime last week..

I'll give u panthers secondary is by far the weakest link on the d but they will keep wrs in front of them and make saints drive the field, only matter of time till the front 7 makes a play on long drives. The total being 45.5 pretty much screams Brees isn't gonna hang some monster number. Sure he will get yards much like Brady did but how many long drives will they be able to finish?

Line seems dead on to me, I'd have loved to get panthers+4 so I'd be happy to take panthers +6 if u offering..

[SharkAA]

So the unwritten rule 'Never fade Drew Brees at the Dome' still stands?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Have to agree the line looks light. Would lean NO and take Car at home in 2 weeks.

[2daBank]

Have to agree the line looks light. Would lean NO and take Car at home in 2 weeks.

While I certainly think it a distinct possibility they split I don't get how u guys think the line is short? You seriously make saints a fav on a neutral field? I don't, I've had panthers rated ahead of them most the year, while it certainly close even guys that rate saints ahead can't possibly by much. I'd make it panthers pk-120 or -1/-2ish, no idea how you could say it anything less than pk-110 on a neutral? I guess if u say it a straight pk on a neutral u could call it half point to a point low cause I'm willing to give saints 3.5 or even 4 in the thunderdome just cause they so tough there(very few home fields I even give 3 to anymore)..

Again far as who wins I dunno, I think it gonna be a hell of a gm, I'd loved to seen panthers at the +4/4.5 y'all seem to think it should be (or even better +6 op claims it should be)cause it be a no brainer for me then. I passed on +3.5 hoping it might get there and now looks like +3 gonna be it, at that number I prob gotta pass even tho I want to play panthers I think that line is right.

Not trying to attack at all, just extremely curious what u would make this line on a neutral field, how many points u give saints for home field, and what u think line should be..

[Easy-Rider 66]

While I certainly think it a distinct possibility they split I don't get how u guys think the line is short? You seriously make saints a fav on a neutral field? I don't, I've had panthers rated ahead of them most the year, while it certainly close even guys that rate saints ahead can't possibly by much. I'd make it panthers pk-120 or -1/-2ish, no idea how you could say it anything less than pk-110 on a neutral? I guess if u say it a straight pk on a neutral u could call it half point to a point low cause I'm willing to give saints 3.5 or even 4 in the thunderdome just cause they so tough there(very few home fields I even give 3 to anymore)..

Again far as who wins I dunno, I think it gonna be a hell of a gm, I'd loved to seen panthers at the +4/4.5 y'all seem to think it should be (or even better +6 op claims it should be)cause it be a no brainer for me then. I passed on +3.5 hoping it might get there and now looks like +3 gonna be it, at that number I prob gotta pass even tho I want to play panthers I think that line is right.

Not trying to attack at all, just extremely curious what u would make this line on a neutral field, how many points u give saints for home field, and what u think line should be..

Good post. Just think that NO at home coming off a poor effort is the play. I would make NO a 4 point Fav. Car D is legit, but still not sold on their O. Also is Johnson and Williams a go for this game? Have a feeling that both teams take care of business at home.

[RickyRoma]

I don't see how the saints don't win this by a minimum of a touchdown, they should come more motivated then ever after that ass beating they took monday

[2daBank]

Good post. Just think that NO at home coming off a poor effort is the play. I would make NO a 4 point Fav. Car D is legit, but still not sold on their O. Also is Johnson and Williams a go for this game? Have a feeling that both teams take care of business at home.

they both listed as probable last time i looked, obviously johnson a bigger deal than deangalo cause panthers have plenty of capable rbs.. i certainly get backing saints off a bad loss and at home on primetime where they never lose, not sure how many of those gms they were playing a team that matched up as well as i think panthers do but fact remains they win these gms, i have no doubt saints will have their A gm sunday night, even on a short week that was made shorter by them being unable to leave sea till tues..

i like panthers offense, they lead the league in time of possession and cam has become incredibly hard to stop on 3rd downs converting 46% of the time, i think the o compliments their defense great as they play just as physical as the d..they might not be as pretty to watch as some teams but cam is playing at a high level and they are hard to get off the field. doesnt hurt that they are also incredibly tough in the red zone scoring tds on 60% of their trips which ranks 6th in the league, again complementing a defense that is far and away the toughest unit in the league to score against inside the 20..the defense forces teams to work harder than anyone to get their points and the offense does a great job of limiting your chances against the d..

maybe cam will make me look bad sunday night but honestly i think for all his faults he is exactly the kind of guy i want in this gm cause i think he actually thrives in this kind of moment and wont be fazed by the atmosphere.. he does have the distinct adv of getting to play against what will be the weakest unit on the field imo. sure saints defense is improved but this isnt a ultra talented group, they scheme well and have caused some qbs confusion but a lot of the things they like to do against the pass are negated by a strong run gm, yes they can limit the run if they choose (as they did lynch on monday night) but at the expense of their schemes against the pass..

not gonna lie, im scared of saints at home, wish i was getting more than 3 but looks like that ship has sailed, if it goes back to 3.5 ill play panthers, if it doesnt ill prob play panthers ml small just cause im def gonna want little action on this gm and feel like i can get that back in carolina if they do lose, but bottom line is im pretty firm on panthers being the better team and the team i been saying all year could potentially beat sea in sea if anyone can..if im wrong so be it, wont be 1st time, most likely wont be the last but ive been on the panthers bandwagon since week 1 (where they screwed me against sea!) and im not ready to jump ship now..

[Slimpickens]

Im not fading the Panthers winning streak here. Saints appear to be off form as they havent played well the last 3 weeks. Probably should have lost to the 49ers 3 weeks ago and were all out to beat a bad Falcons team 2 back. Line is where it should be Saints -3 as the Panthers are a better team and would be favored on a neutral field.

[Bagman5]

Oddsmakers don't overreact from week to week... on a neutral field panthers are slight favs in this gm so I guess you giving saints 6 points for home field? While I agree that aints home field is one of the few places worth every bit of 3 points and maybe 4 that puts line right where it should be, maybe saints cover maybe they lose but books don't make a habit of screwing up a big time prime time line based off what happened last week...

U say panthers won't be able to run but the only way saints can limit run gms is by hurting their pass d, sure they can slow down panthers run gm if they hell bent on it but that will leave cam w opportunities much like Wilson had..

No clue what the game in Mia has to do w this week? That was panthers coming off a huge mon night win over the pats in a big time letdown spot and still finding a way to win.. I could just as easily point to saints getting a home gm vs sf gift wrapped on a bs roughing call.. This on the other hand is saints coming off a short week, one where their plane didn't leave sea till tues and facing another physical team while panthers had their gm wrapped up by halftime last week..

I'll give u panthers secondary is by far the weakest link on the d but they will keep wrs in front of them and make saints drive the field, only matter of time till the front 7 makes a play on long drives. The total being 45.5 pretty much screams Brees isn't gonna hang some monster number. Sure he will get yards much like Brady did but how many long drives will they be able to finish?

Line seems dead on to me, I'd have loved to get panthers+4 so I'd be happy to take panthers +6 if u offering..

Hate to see that you're on the opposite side, Bank. One of the guys whose opinions I really value around here.

That said, believe it or not, I am giving the Saints 6 points for a home prime time game. In this scenario, they have won 12 games in a row by an average of 20+ ppg. To me, a 6 point adjustment is very well called for based on this fact.

As far as the Panthers running game, I think it is overrated. The numbers are inflated due to Cam's scrambling ability. Their running backs average less than 4 ypc. The Saints do not have to stack the box like they did against Seattle to stop Carolina's run game. It isn't the same animal.

I brought up Miami because they are a team that the Panthers should theoretically dominated based on their strengths, and they did the opposite. I get the "let down game" aspect of it, but I still did not like what I saw out of them that game in an easy place to play. This is New Orleans in a night game.

The total pretty much has to be where it is, the Panthers haven't played a game with a total over that number all year. If it's set at 49 or something in that range, it gets pounded down for that fact alone.

Like I said, I respect your opinion, but I love the Saints this week.

[2daBank]

damn 6 points heh? well that explains your line, not sure i agree as i think 4 is more than generous but makes more sense why you have -6 anyways.. those gaudy at home in primetime numbers just dont hold as much weight for me as most i guess cause ive heard those numbers spit out 100 times this week, not saying it isnt impressive but w/o looking im gonna assume at least half of those were against inferior opponents and not once was it against these panthers so i cant bump their home field over 4 when there only 2 places that even get more than 3 from me..

i just dont see the mia gm as a indictment against panthers at all, that a gm that plenty of good teams would lose yet they managed to find a way to win on a short week, after 2 huge wins, playing in a half empty stadium against a mia team that is capable and has beaten several solid teams.. i give them credit for that win then coming back home and waxing a bucs team playing better ball and most thought were gonna cover. so they had their letdown and overcame it to get the W, just dont see how you give them a bad grade for that when damn near every sharp cat i know liked phins to win..

panthers run gm is different, overrated i dunno i guess it depends who doing the rating, lol.. they dont need to gash you with big runs, as long as they moving you forward and getting themselves into 3rd and 4 or less they accomplished exactly what they wanted as i dont think there anyone in the league harder to defend in such situations as they put cam in shotgun with that zone read option where if he isnt accounted for he will get the 1st, even if he is he can overpower the outside defender and still get the 1st, to simply take this away alone will force saints out of those schemes and into playing them more straight up which is then advantage olson and wrs.. we talking about a saints team that likes to play with 3 safties on the field, none of who are physical enough to deal with cam, stewart, or tolbert..so yea the run gm different but in sheer volume and their ability to stay on the field they are gonna wear down this saints d,, panthers ran for almost 500 yards in 2 games vs this team last year, yea the pass d has improved but we talking about a team that still allows 4.6ypc so im not buying they can stop the run w/o committing another man to the box..

i have no doubt brees will move the ball, he will also be pressured and forced to dink and dunk much like brady was. so then you have what i think comes down to who has more success in the red zone. ill take my chances with panthers offense who converts 60% of the time vs saints d that ranks 25th allowing just about that same 60% while on the other side panthers are head and shoulders the best red zone defense in the league only allowing teams to cash in their trips 30% of the time facing a saints offense that has been middle of the pack all year only punching it in 53% of the time...

it is saints at the thunderdome tho and i been wrong before, i think it will be a really good gm, and id luv to have +4 but odds are that aint happening so it really wont be anything more than a smaller play on the ml for me most likely.. i cant see going big on this one either way really..at least one of us will cash

[Noleafclover]

Don't believe you can productively make neutral field statements about the Saints using the typical 3 points, cause its about getting them outta the dome. I'd hang car -2.5 on neutral, but car -3.5 may be high at home. Here I think the line is saints -4 or -4.5, tempted to play it on the "after a blowout loss angle." Did their plane really not leave till Tues. from Sea? Why?

[2daBank]

Don't believe you can productively make neutral field statements about the Saints using the typical 3 points, cause its about getting them outta the dome. I'd hang car -2.5 on neutral, but car -3.5 may be high at home. Here I think the line is saints -4 or -4.5, tempted to play it on the "after a blowout loss angle." Did their plane really not leave till Tues. from Sea? Why?

i dont know if it was mechanical or cause of the ice? but yea it true.. i can go off neutral cause i have a number i give for every home field and very few do i even give 3 to any longer, i give a handful the full 3, saints and sea i give 4 and sometimes even 4.5 for sea..so based off my number of panthers either pk-120 or -1 maybe-2 on a neutral saints 4 for home field and presto 3 seems about spot on...im willing to work anything out with anyone who is willing to give me panthers+4.5 tho cause pissed i missed the +4, then i waited on +3.5 hoping ppl would pound saints off a blowout loss and listening to espn regurgitate their meaningless home/primetime stats all week like a broken record,, hasnt seemed to matter tho, hoping we get 1 more push to aints-3.5 so i can be one of the ppl that eat up the +3.5..

[StackinGreen]

BankMan,

First thing I thought was "Who has Carolina beat on the road?" I'm with you.

Carolina is hot and good, and they also are the top PURE POINTS rating as well as several other systems of prediction, but it's all about matchups, which is why NO is overcoming the stats here.

[2daBank]

BankMan,

First thing I thought was "Who has Carolina beat on the road?" I'm with you.

Carolina is hot and good, and they also are the top PURE POINTS rating as well as several other systems of prediction, but it's all about matchups, which is why NO is overcoming the stats here.

i dont think saints match up well at all with panthers, but like i been saying it nothing more than a normal play for me at most cause i do respect saints at home if only cause they get more garbage ass calls than anyone. im pretty confident if they do lose this one i will get it back when they meet in carolina..

[StackinGreen]

Any thoughts on the total? I have found that most people neglect them and focus too much on sides when the week is difficult. This is a mistake.

[SharkAA]

Any thoughts on the total? I have found that most people neglect them and focus too much on sides when the week is difficult. This is a mistake.

I'll fade this game, but if I had to decide, it would be under 46.5, because I expect around 43 points in this game.

[Bagman5]

Hopefully you are getting on the 3.5 that's out there if you still like it a lot, Banker. Glad I locked in the -3 days ago, but I don't think the half point will matter anyways haha...

Other than this play, also playing a 3 teamer with the Pats even, Broncos -2 and Chiefs over 34. Don't usually like 3 team teases, but this is too juicy to pass up.

Will also be playing Philly -3. They seem to have finally got over their home woes and beat a better football team in Arizona there last week. The score was not indicative of the Eagles' control of that game, either. I'm riding Foles until he proves me wrong.

Saints -3 (5x)
Tease - Pats, Broncos, Chiefs over (2x)
Eagles -3 (1x)

That's probably it for today. Good luck to all. Who dat?!?!?!?

[Bagman5]

Not liking the weather reports all coming out of Landover, MD. Will be playing Baltimore +4 in that tease instead. Love getting more than a FG at home vs Minnesota. The Ravens shouldn't lose this game, but if they somehow do, I don't see it being by more than 3.

[Bagman5]

Got lucky on the tease with the New England miracle, 2-1 on the day so far though. All aboard the Saints tonight! Locked it in for 5u earlier in the week, but I'd feel comfortable laying the hook if you need to.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Looking good. If CAR does lose, see them evening the score at HOME in 2 weeks. Easy Pickings.

[RickyRoma]

Who dat

[2daBank]

good call bro... i knew after panthers settled on 1st 2 drives they were more than likely beat, then saints cashed in on their 1st 2 trips in red zone and i spent some time with the wife.

[thebestthereis]

saints in the dome at night is burial, anyone that didn't see this happening again for 100th time is a complete moron

[Big Bear]

saints in the dome at night is burial, anyone that didn't see this happening again for 100th time is a complete moron

look man dont be calling people morons unless you going to say that shit before the game.

but yes i agree.

[Big Bear]

good call bro... i knew after panthers settled on 1st 2 drives they were more than likely beat, then saints cashed in on their 1st 2 trips in red zone and i spent some time with the wife.

yep Cam and the Panthers were way too conservative. There is no point whatsoever of kicking a field goal when you play the Saints. NONE they would have been better off going for it on 4th down.

[Bagman5]

That was a good day and a great night. 3-1, +6 units - Almost 4-0 +12 units had the Philly game stayed under for a PHI/Under Parlay. Oh well. Brees indoors against that secondary was not a fair fight. That said, it's a whole new game outdoors in Carolina in two weeks. I'll be looking to jump on the Panthers early in the week for that one because I think they get their revenge

[2daBank]

yep Cam and the Panthers were way too conservative. There is no point whatsoever of kicking a field goal when you play the Saints. NONE they would have been better off going for it on 4th down.

I was fine with the 1st 1 great opening drive, did some good things and got 3. Good start. Then d gets a 3 and out, ginn with a good punt return, you gotta score 7 there and go up 10-0. They do that and it a whole different gm.. Funny that some sacks of shit wanna run around today saying anyone that wasn't on saints a moron. Of coarse I've never seen those ppl with any opinion of value before hand on any game so shouldn't surprise me..

[Bagman5]

I was fine with the 1st 1 great opening drive, did some good things and got 3. Good start. Then d gets a 3 and out, ginn with a good punt return, you gotta score 7 there and go up 10-0. They do that and it a whole different gm.. Funny that some sacks of shit wanna run around today saying anyone that wasn't on saints a moron. Of coarse I've never seen those ppl with any opinion of value before hand on any game so shouldn't surprise me..

I find that funny, too. I was obviously on the Saints for the whole week, but even before the game, I wasn't going to call out every person who wasn't on my side. Did I disagree? Sure, but I was willing to listen to dissenting opinions. Point being - The Panthers are a good football team playing good football, it's asinine to say things like that the morning after they get beat up.

[CajunNation]

Betting against Brees in the dome in primetime is murder!!!!

[Capper1124]

This was an easy play. Saints kicked ass