[innovation]

I admit I was already calling SF a winner last Monday night in LB's Seahawks super bowl thread.

However after actually capping the game. I have come to this conclusion.

It's all based on feeling and emotion.

A couple things to support this.

1. If the Seahawks had not yet played Niners this year and records and stats were exactly the same. How many would play Niners so confidently?

2. Seattle has a Short week. Yes they lose a day but it is what it is.

3. Niners are favored by -2.5. Normally you don't get the number #1 power ranked team who is 11-1 and 5-1 on the road catching any points to a 8-4 (4-2 home) team.


The only legitimate argument here is the changes in Seattle's secondary but we are talking Kape wonder throwing the ball here. That is a wash considering he isn't brees.

All I am saying is everyone thinks they are sharp by taking the Niners.

Breaking down the game Seattle has the advantage in almost every category.

Don't give me the "who have they played" because the strength of schedule is not that far apart.

Vegas knows how we think and don't think for an instance they didn't create too much value on Seahawks.

While in my heart I want Niners to win. The smart thing would be to sit this game out and have Niners prove they can win.

I know this line is way off and If you read it as Vegas taxing the right side so be it.

I can't help but to take advantage of generous +2.5 points in this game. Seattle will throw the ball effectively against the Niners and I will side with the better red zone defense. Turnovers are almost a push

Sit out or take Seahawks +2.5.

my 2 cents.

[tatddy]

You're right you should sit it out if you're vacillating this much.

[innovation]

lol Tatddy my system is calling a dog here...square or not.

like I said my heart is with Niners

[tatddy]

Line is sharp. 20-17ish game with both Staley and Iupati out. If Staley nuts up and plays Niners roll. Also don't forget in your factoring that this might be the last significant game in the history of Candlestick Park. Tickets going for 400/ea around here. Will be a playoff atmosphere. Banking on Russ on the road in a loud environment vs a top D compared to peace and quiet for Kaep to check at the line...

All of your stats on paper are respected but make sure you are taking it all into account. Also...this game doesn't mean nearly as much for the Hawks. They'd be better served not laying out all their eggs for this game since they'll likely be meeting again.

[shaunovery]

As tat says playoff feel to this one . Roman said kap played best game last sunday 49ers roll here

[innovation]

I respect everything Tatddy said and I am not against how big of a game this is for the Bay area.

My heart wants Seahawks to go 1-3 down the stretch as the play some tough defensive teams and thats how you beat this squad.

I use a different formula to calculate my line and while it's way off from vegas it gives me a good feel for how I value a team all year long.

Now the question is how much of the Hawks numbers I use is smoke and mirrors.....This game will determine who they are.

I can't pass up catching the points when I have Hawks by -6.


That alone should be telling how strong Vegas is taxing the Niners and if my system was calling for a favorite I would have no reservations taking Niners.

It's going to be the best game of the year....imo

[tatddy]

Right on enjoy the game! Don't have a play on it myself at this time. Still want to see what happens with Staley.

[Big Bear]

You're right you should sit it out if your vacillating this much.

whats your favorite bet this week?

[Big Bear]

Richard Sherman will completely take Anquan Boldin out of the game just like he did last time.

Boldin lacks break away speed but he dominates undersized CB's... Richard Sherman however will completely shut him down

That being said i still lean san fran

[SharkAA]

Maybe it'd be good to sit this one out. Wild guess, but imo it's going to be a 20-20, 23-23 game and an OT.

[2daBank]

I personally think u bet sf or pass..

[Untied]

Week 2 Hawks 29 - 3

They made Kaep look like he belonged in the Lingerie football league.
Thinking it will be close Sunday, should be fun to watch.
Considering a play on 1st half under

[navyblue81]

San Fran is playing some strong football right now and they have Seattle in their stadium. They've got most of their defense now healthy. Seattle is dangerous at home, but this week they are on the road and coming off a big game on a short week.

Love the Niners this week. One of my biggest plays.

[innovation]

One hell of a game. Can't fault anyone backing Niners here. Who knows maybe a 19-17 Niners win.....I'd take that all day.

MY best doggy ML of the week is Bills absolutely love them to win SU.

Skins ML is on my card as well but Bills is my best bet.

BOL fellas

[Big Bear]

inno the Redskins suck man.

[Parligod]

I haven't looked much at this game because it's safest as a no-play but I'm a 49ers fan by association since I live in the bay area. tatdaddy is right - playing final game in Candlestick park is a big deal around here. The move from this stadium has been a big topic of discussion for YEARS so it means something to a lot of people in the bay area as a piece of history and nothing would please them more than to beat their rival Seattle . I personally try to minimize the "x team wants it more" argument because largely both teams equally have the drive but it is a unique game.

As for other factors: I recall the Niners losing their rhythm and timing in New Orleans due to the crowd's crazy-loud fans; Sunday's game I see the SF fans being that level against Seattle. I also have to say the last 2 games in particular SF has looked fantastic and much like the team of last year.

One last very important point I didn't see anyone taking note of: Crabtree is back and now gives 49ers offense the dual threat along with Boldin they've been wanting to have and I think the impact is showing on offense.

[innovation]

Parligod excellent point about Crabtree he broke a big one last week and could be the x factor for sure. Everyone looks spectacular against skins and that horrid pass defense....while I do give credit for the team looking good....jury is still out on Kaper.


Bear skins pass defense is ta ta terrible....however you have to ask yourself.....KC is only laying 3 points and they have covered all 5 spreads vs. skins since 1992......red flag I am siding with the 19% who are dumb enough to bet skins.

KC should be laying more here.....big red flag.

[vyomguy]

I will know who will win this game 1 minute before tipoff.

[tatddy]

I will know who will win this game 1 minute before tipoff.

I'll be there. You should be too pal.

[strictlypaypal]

being from the LA area and born in the 90's I never had an nfl team, would just watch and bet but was fascinated by Kaepernick last season and this game will be my first attending college or pro and this thread getting me super hyped. Niners -2.5 let's goooooooo

[tatddy]

Who knows maybe a 19-17 Niners win.....I'd take that all day

Spot on! Nice work...glad we both found a way to cash pal.

[Big Bear]

Spot on! Nice work...glad we both found a way to cash pal.

what was your play ?

[innovation]

One hell of a game Tatddy.....can't imagine what it was like being there.

Seahawks better not sleep on any of the next 3 teams.

[tatddy]

One hell of a game Tatddy.....can't imagine what it was like being there.

Seahawks better not sleep on any of the next 3 teams.

Was my last time ever at the Stick....couldn't miss it. Beauty of living in SF is that I could wait until 12:30 my time to buy tickets and still make it there by kickoff on public transit.

And Bear...doesn't matter what my play was at this point does it? Was on the ml and enough to pay for my pair of tixs...

[Big Bear]

Was my last time ever at the Stick....couldn't miss it. Beauty of living in SF is that I could wait until 12:30 my time to buy tickets and still make it there by kickoff on public transit.

And Bear...doesn't matter what my play was at this point does it? Was on the ml and enough to pay for my pair of tixs...

just curious. i was wondering what your plays were but i didnt see them posted.

you a good capper man you should post your plays

[tatddy]

just curious. i was wondering what your plays were but i didnt see them posted.

you a good capper man you should post your plays

Sometimes you gotta read between the lines. If I'm making a special I'm probably on the other side for cash. But you know what you're doing you don't need my plays. I ain't nobody.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/betpoints/...pts-broke.html