Awesome, welcome back man. Great stuff last season.
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11-28-13 01:26 AM #36
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11-28-13 05:43 AM #37
Alrighty.....I had forgotten that it is American Thanksgiving.....here are some picks in the NFL tomorrow....
212506752-1 11/28/13 6:39am $100.00 $104.00 Pending 11/28/13 12:30pm Reduced Football 303 Green Bay Packers +6½ +104* vs Detroit Lions 212506752-2 11/28/13 6:39am $106.00 $100.00 Pending 11/28/13 4:30pm Reduced Football 305 Oakland Raiders +7½ -106* vs Dallas Cowboys 212506752-3 11/28/13 6:39am $100.00 $105.00 Pending 11/28/13 8:30pm Reduced Football 307 Pittsburgh Steelers +2½ +105* vs Baltimore Ravens 212506752-4 11/28/13 6:39am $104.00 $100.00 Pending 11/28/13 8:30pm Reduced Football 307 Pittsburgh Steelers/Baltimore Ravens Over 41 -104*
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11-28-13 05:55 AM #38
what a rookie, +2.5 and +6.5. guess you never heard of key numbers in football
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11-28-13 07:07 AM #39
NFL Thanksgiving Day
Just a few thoughts regarding the NFL on Thanksgiving Day over the past 7 years
Home Favorites: 10-1 ATS (90%)
Road Favorites: 7- 3 ATS (70%)
17-4 overall (80%)
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11-28-13 10:13 AM #40
Well these are generally dog-sided lines, perhaps with some respect to that (at least pitt, oak, strike me as so.. I kinda like DET though). Or at least to the public's perception of that.
D2D, what would you say is your best sport?
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11-28-13 12:19 PM #41
Nice Write up and went 2 w 4L in NBA lol not hating just saying! Follow me for winner! Today Pound on NFL GB packets +6! BOL
Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts
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11-28-13 12:21 PM #42
Clearly I understand 'key numbers' in sports. To say that you don't think that I do, you clearly just have not read any portion of my previous posts. Originally Posted by GoBlue77
I understand, and obviously those results are public knowledge. I believe that historical factors are important, but as I have made clear in the past, I am a stats guy.....and understanding statistics means that you can find historical trends in statistics that mean ZERO. Originally Posted by leetreaper
Did you know that on the fourth Wednesday of February, when the moon is full and Madonna wears a white skirt, that the road team in the NHL has won 15 of the last 17 games?
I understand that there is SOME historical relevance here......I am not stupid, but frankly IMO these facts are given entirely too much weight in sports wagering......the past is the past, and current trends, individual matchups and other factors should be weighted well before historical data of more than one season old. Again, this is my opinion, and doesn't need to be yours.
My best sport is the NBA. Frankly it isn't even close....however, I have been profitable in the NHL and NFL. Originally Posted by Noleafclover
GL today everyone!
D2D
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11-28-13 12:23 PM #43
Sorry, apparently your math is wrong. In the games you posted I was 3-3 and overall I finished over + $200 in the NBA yesterday. Also, please stick to your own thread. Originally Posted by boatofcapper177
Thanks,
D2D
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11-28-13 12:30 PM #44
Thanks!
Re: trends, the question has always got to be, "what's the reason behind the trend?" Seems plausible to believe that on Thanksgiving, favorites play their hearts out and are the better team so they cover. I'd want to see the data going back more like 20 years though or at least a round number like 10 if we have to be lazy. 7 years is one of those fvcking numbers they do in trends that I absolutely hate. Dollars to donuts the 8th year back shows the opposite, so it's stat-padding.
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11-28-13 01:31 PM #45
D2D is back !!!
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11-28-13 01:40 PM #46
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11-28-13 02:12 PM #47
Seriously, you come into someone else's thread to tout your own picks? Coming from the guy that was begging for who the best capper here was a week ago...whose ghost are you? LOL not hating just saying! Originally Posted by boatofcapper177
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11-28-13 02:28 PM #48
this place is full of these clowns that do this. And his own pick fukkin tanked. Not surprising Originally Posted by Coreos
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11-28-13 03:16 PM #49
So we have to go to Higher site to check record?
Be nice if it was printed here also.
Good luck in round 2 Dollars. Good to see you back after doing so well round 1.
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11-28-13 07:01 PM #50
I will see what we can do with getting it printed here daily. Sorry I didn't get my NBA and NHL picks up earlier....unfortunately my day has been crazy. Some picks to come shortly for later games.
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11-28-13 07:07 PM #51
I am going to be honest....record keeping this time means less to me....I spent a ton of time tracking 1500 picks over 6 months last year and it just about drove me mad. I am happy to let a fellow SBR'er to do it. If he wants to post here, or if somebody else does.....that is up to them. Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts
This is it for tonight. Ilya Bryzgalov is back....and I personally think that he is going to be very good for the Oilers. Look for them to play a solid game tonight and the scoring to be at a minimum.
212657692-1 11/28/13 8:03pm $50.00 $62.50 Pending 11/28/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Edmonton Oilers +125 vs Nashville Predators 212657692-2 11/28/13 8:03pm $120.00 $100.00 Pending 11/28/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Edmonton Oilers/Nashville Predators Under 5½ -120
D2D
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11-28-13 07:31 PM #52
I apologize for you having to put any thought to it d2d. I should of been more clear as I was hoping someone could throw up a recap. I get a fine display on my p.c. with elements site but for some reason I have to scroll like crazy on tablet.
Props to element for his site and again good luck.
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11-28-13 07:31 PM #53
We shall see if Bryz's 5-hole is still
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11-28-13 07:46 PM #54
Lol, beautiful. Originally Posted by El Nino
We shall see if Bryz's 5-hole is still
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11-28-13 08:20 PM #55
Diamond, I'll try and work on the mobile version, which is the default tablet version. Embedding excel sheets also limits me to a degree. Originally Posted by DiamondBack
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11-28-13 08:44 PM #56
and the pope is catholic... Originally Posted by pacers101
damn, D2D...glad to have you back...i just reminisced to HE a few days ago about you being one of the most gifted hi-volume multi-sport guyz in recent memory here...but that tryin to keep all the tailgatin' bastids happy all the time wore ya' down...
hope u got that same great D2D brain as before...but packaged in a new thicker-skinned IDGAF attitude!
D2D's back...and just in time to help fill the coffers for Chrismas!!Last edited by fitguy67; 11-28-13 at 10:00 PM.
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11-28-13 09:35 PM #57
Great call on the EDM game!
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11-28-13 09:40 PM #58
Hopefully this makes up for what looks to be a 1-3 day in the NFL. Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts
Originally Posted by fitguy67
Well, the biggest reason I am back (aside from the fact that I find it fun to share ideas and strategies) is the people. I am continually amazed at the number of people that have PM'd me, emailed me and even texted me.
I still think that my reasons for leaving were overstated....frankly, the biggest reason I wasn't around was that I was in the middle of moving (twice) and then, by the time I got settled in....there was no longer anything to bet on! While I know more about MLB than any other sport, I just could not find any traction there....I felt like I ended up guessing, and then second guessing my reasoning later....I felt like the ground was moving under me.
I wanted to start a little earlier in the NFL, but I wasn't hitting well enough on my predictions when I was air betting on my own.....
FG, I admit it, I will probably let people get to me here and there....it is how I am wired and I know it is a weakness....as for the 'high volume', that will never change. If I only have two or three bets out there on any given day during the season, I am inevitably booooored!
Great to be back and thanks for the warm welcome to everyone.
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11-28-13 09:56 PM #59
Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts
Good pucks picks
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11-28-13 10:40 PM #60
How's 3-1 sound instead? Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts
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11-28-13 10:42 PM #61
Not so fast on the foots 1-3.
3-1 now
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11-28-13 10:49 PM #62
You are providing a great service to the posting forums. Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt
Kudos bud
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11-29-13 02:11 AM #63
Great day D2D! Nice bounceback for NHL. Wish I saw your picks for today, but not complaining...went 7-1-1 on college BB & 8-0 on NFL. But gave half of it back on the college FB
IIRC, you don't cap any college sports right??
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11-29-13 02:33 AM #64
Thanks man, I will take 5-1 days all day long. Yesterday was tough, but scrounged out a couple of dollars of profit, but today was better being up around $350. Originally Posted by Coreos
Great day D2D! Nice bounceback for NHL. Wish I saw your picks for today, but not complaining...went 7-1-1 on college BB & 8-0 on NFL. But gave half of it back on the college FB IIRC, you don't cap any college sports right??
I cap college BBall late, like VERY LATE in the season. I find that the first 80% of the season I just don't have enough of a grasp to make plays. No college FBall for me though....just an NFL guy.
Guys, I will try and post my picks a little earlier tomorrow....just two days in I am not yet in the right routine.
D2D
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11-29-13 10:03 AM #65
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11-29-13 10:48 AM #66
Ok guys, lot's of road faves here today....which is not always a good thing....but for some reason it still all looks right.
Good Luck!
212780172-1 11/29/13 11:42am $106.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 4:05pm Reduced Hockey 57 Detroit Red Wings -106* vs New York Islanders 212780172-2 11/29/13 11:42am $100.00 $105.00 Pending 11/29/13 4:05pm Reduced Hockey 61 St. Louis Blues +105* vs San Jose Sharks 212780172-3 11/29/13 11:42am $100.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 5:05pm Reduced Hockey 64 Washington Capitals +100* vs Montreal Canadiens 212780172-4 11/29/13 11:42am $50.00 $56.00 Pending 11/29/13 6:05pm Reduced Hockey 65 Colorado Avalanche +112* vs Minnesota Wild 212780172-5 11/29/13 11:42am $50.00 $52.50 Pending 11/29/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 69 New Jersey Devils +105* vs Carolina Hurricanes 212780172-6 11/29/13 11:42am $50.00 $65.00 Pending 11/29/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 72 Buffalo Sabres +130* vs Toronto Maple Leafs 212780172-7 11/29/13 11:42am $134.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 8:35pm Reduced Hockey 73 Chicago Blackhawks -134* vs Dallas Stars 212779633-1 11/29/13 11:40am $52.50 $50.00 Pending 11/29/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 502 Charlotte Bobcats -5 -105* vs Milwaukee Bucks 212779633-2 11/29/13 11:40am $50.00 $52.50 Pending 11/29/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 508 Atlanta Hawks +105* vs Dallas Mavericks 212779633-3 11/29/13 11:40am $105.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 515 Golden State Warriors/Oklahoma City Thunder Over 203½ -105* 212779633-4 11/29/13 11:40am $107.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 517 Washington Wizards/Indiana Pacers Under 187½ -107* 212779633-5 11/29/13 11:40am $125.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 523 Phoenix Suns -125* vs Utah Jazz 212779633-6 11/29/13 11:40am $102.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 10:05pm Reduced Basketball 525 Los Angeles Clippers -4 -102* vs Sacramento Kings Totals: $1,131.50 $1,081.00
D2DPoints Awarded:
l3randonf gave Dollars2Donuts 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
bald_guy gave Dollars2Donuts 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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11-29-13 10:57 AM #67
Let's get it today
Do you have a record of your picks yet?
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11-29-13 11:09 AM #68
Someone other than D2D will be keeping track of the record. Originally Posted by iWin
Let's get it today
Do you have a record of your picks yet?
How does one find a reliable source for who the starting NHL goalie will be for a given team? I was using daily face-off...but...the other day they had Lehtonen starting against the Ducks but at gametime it was Ellis in net! WTF!
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11-29-13 11:22 AM #69
So far I am 13-9 (technically it is 13-8, but the first day I placed two wagers at two different odds on the same game and HE, who is doing the tracking, has said that he will be tracking multiple bets on one game as different wagers....this means sometimes I may go 0-3 or 4-0 (etc.) on one game). Originally Posted by iWin
Let's get it today
Do you have a record of your picks yet?
Here is HE's link for my stats:
http://www.advisortracking.com/p/st-dollars2donuts.html
This is the best: Originally Posted by l3randonf
http://www2.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/
BUT....and this is a very important BUT....the starting goalie is often a curveball that people cannot hit. You need to understand the makeup of the team, and how the starting goalie (if it is the backup, especially is he plays a very small number of games) will affect the teams' psyche. To just place a bet against a team because their backup is in net is a HUGE mistake.
Everyone needs to understand that the people that set the lines KNOW who the starter is at least as well as us. That means those lines are already adjusted to how Vegas believes the backup will affect the game. One of my favourite plays is finding a slight road dog, that is playing well and in the 2nd game of a 3 games in four nights and is starting their backup. Sounds like a lot of work....but if you can find this I assure you you will pick up more $$$ than you drop.
Also, sometimes the starting goalie will change at the last second due to illness, small muscle issue in warmup, etc. These things cannot be helped and will not affect you over 1000 games as it will always equal out.
D2D
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11-29-13 01:22 PM #70
Why do you like GSW/OKC > 203.5? OKC has a very solid 3-pt D, but that may be who they played, I didn't look that far into it because I'm newish to NBA.
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