San Diego over Philadelphia 6 units ML 1.83
I don't think there's much between these teams, who can both beat the best or struggle against the worst on their day. Frankly the Eagles are a better-rounded team, with no outstanding weakness like the Chargers' league-worst rushing yards-per-carry. However, it's a horrible scheduling spot for Philly, travelling coast to coast off the back of three straight divisional games. The Chargers have a good opportunity to catch the visitors on an off-day.
Tennessee -7 over BUffalo 5 units
The Titans have bounced back somewhat - at last - from that horrific start to the season, albeit with a slightly flukey win at San Francisco. They were due some luck. Anyway, despite two wins in a row I still have Tennessee down as 'under-rated' using my top secret statistics, and when the league's best running game meets the league's worst run defense it's hard not to want to bet.
'Really?' stat of the game: Tennessee have given up the fewest sacks in the league.
Detroit +16.5 @ Minnesota 5 units
After St Louis in week 8 and Tampa Bay in week 9 (both winners) this is the official week 10 "Scary Play". It comes down to the following facts: Last year's 0-16 Lions lost their two games to the Vikings by a TOTAL of six points. The Vikings won this year's meeting by fourteen (which would still be good enough here), but the teams gained the EXACT same amount of yards during the game. Added to that, my closely-guarded ratings show the Vikings due a downturn in scoring and the Lions due a downturn in points allowed. With all that considered, I'll take the Lions on this enormous spread (and I hate missing the 17).
'Really?' stat of the game: Minnesota's awesome running game is 17th in the league in yards per carry.
Carolina +1.5 over Atlanta 5 units On my hush-hush statistics I've got the Falcons down as slightly over-rated, the cats from Carolina as rather under-rated, and I've gone 3-0 following those assessments over the last three weeks. Atlanta are statistically average in most areas, with the exception of a nice passing game. The Panthers obviously have the edge on the ground, on both sides of the ball. With Del'Homme edging his way back into form, I have to take last year's number one NFC seed to grind out a win in this important divisional game. Note that despite losing, the Panthers outgained the Falcons in the season's earlier meeting
Oakland -2 over Kansas City 5 units God, it's tough to bet on the Raiders in general and JaMarcus Russell in particular. Still, in this battle of teams for whom you have to peer all the way down to the bottom of the statistical charts, the Chiefs are probably slightly worse. Additionally, my mysterious stats show that the Raiders are under-rated offensively (yes, really!), and they approach this game off a bye week. Meanwhile KC's Unshine band are on the rebound in road trips from one coast to the other.
'Not surprising' stat of the game: KC have the worst 3rd down conversion rate and fewest interceptions made in the NFL
Green Bay +3 over Dallas 5 units + 3 units ML @ 2.2 I had a nice win by opposing Green Bay last week at Tampa Bay. This week, I'm on their side - and not just because I really do love cheese. Edam, Gouda, Cheshire, Stilton, Danish Blue, Havarti.... um, anyway. The broad picture here shows that NFL teams often produce good performances after they have been embarrassed. It also shows that this is what some handicappers call a 'sandwich' game for Dallas (eg there are crucial divisional games either side of it), and is their second straight week on the road. The details show that according to my super-secret numbers, defensively the Packers are under-rated and the Cowboys a little over-rated. Indeed, Green Bay generally defend both the pass and the run well, which is important given that Dallas are quite nicely balanced. The big question mark is, of course, whether Aaron Rogers can stay on his feet and off his arse frequently enough to take advantage of a barely mediocre Dallas pass defense. My hope is that the Packers will run the ball more and offer more play-action, and I give them a very good chance of winning this game.
'Really?' stat of the game: Green Bay allow only 3.47 yards per carry on the ground, 2nd in the NFL
OVER/UNDERS
Denver/Washington to go over was on my slate, but the number has shot up from 36.5 to 40.5 so I have to pass. Must get on my games earlier, as I'm losing points and half-points all over the place lately on my selections. Anyway, here are this week's semi-system-generated totals bets:
Saints/Rams under 50: It's a huge number. Shrug. 4 units
Buccaneers/Dolphins under 42.5: Has annoyingly dropped from 44. I still take it. 3 units
Lions/Vikings under 47.5: Vikings are almost as heavily 'over' this season as Saints. This can't continue. 3 units.
great write up... i'll add my 2cents worth... just for fun... good luck Limey!!
San Diego over Philadelphia 6 units ML 1.83ML Balman - it's pickem game i would stay away from this one
Tennessee -7 over BUffalo 5 units [/color] Balman - 7 is to many point for Young Vince to cover, i'll take the Bills 2units
Detroit +16.5 @ Minnesota 5 units Balman - agree 100% 5units, i'm a die hard vikings fan since 1969, vikes win but they cant cover 17, it's not lack of talent its the coaching.
Carolina +1.5 over Atlanta 5 units Balman - Falcons 5units dont let Atl's road record 1-3 fool you (lost to Pats, Cowboys and Saints on the road) or Carolina's 3wins fool you Wash, Bucs and Cards (6 Card's turnovers) , dirty birds win.
Oakland -2 over Kansas City 5 units Balman - agree to baaaaaaaaad teams so why not take the 2 points KC 1unit
Green Bay +3 over Dallas 5 units + 3 units ML @ 2.2 Balman - when Tony is HOT he's HOT n when he's NOT he's not.. he's HOT so take it, it wont last... Dallas 3units -3
OVER/UNDERS
Denver/Washington to go over was on my slate, but the number has shot up from 36.5 to 40.5 so I have to pass. Must get on my games earlier, as I'm losing points and half-points all over the place lately on my selections. Anyway, here are this week's semi-system-generated totals bets: Balman - if i can get 40 or more i'll go under 3 units
Saints/Rams under 50: It's a huge number. Shrug. 4 units Balman - 100% agree
Buccaneers/Dolphins under 42.5: Has annoyingly dropped from 44. I still take it. 3 units Balman - this one goes over 2units
Lions/Vikings under 47.5: Vikings are almost as heavily 'over' this season as Saints. This can't continue. 3 units. Balman - 100% agree wont go over 47 2units
Good stuff, Limey, thx for posting from across the pond. Some thoughts:
I'm not playing the CAR/ATL game, but here's some reasons to not take CAR: Their best defensive player, linebacker Thomas Davis, is now out (and done for the year I believe), which makes the Panther's already vulnerable interior defense even weaker. DeAngelo Williams is questionable with an injury. DA is basically carrying this offense on his shoulder right now, the Panthers will obviously suffer if he is not in top form. He's clearly separated himself from Stewart as their best back this year.
OAK/KC -- should be a close one, but some weight should be given to the fact that the Chiefs outgained the Raiders by 240 yards in their losing home match up. The Chiefs picked up Chris Chambers, WR, after the Chargers let him go and he made an immediate impact in the fourth quarter in Jacksonville last week. The Chiefs also gave a lot of playing time to 2nd year receiver Lance Long and he had a very good week. The Raiders' pass defense has been cooling off a little, and their run defense is almost the worst in the league, whereas the Chiefs' run defense lies somewhere between average and bad. Both pass offenses have been abysmal, but the Chiefs' with Cassel have much more upside than Russel in that department.
GL, will look for your posts in the future.
Becareful with Green Bay. The Lambeau Homefield advantage is not what it used to be! Not to mention that A-Rodg has absolutley NO PASS PROTECTION! I love the Pack, but cannot see them standing a chance vs. Dallas. Dallas 27 - Green Bay -17
Hey Limey,
Like the writeups, again I know you put a lot of analysis into them so I tread carefully when I'm on the other end.
1. Dallas game I'm on the other end, for reasons others have stated above. Too many problems with Sacks/O-Line issues/Rogers holding the ball too long. Packers have been overrated all season IMO, I don't see them holding up to the Cowboys, who have been hitting their stride now. Romo is hooking up with with M. Austin, AND R. Williams and Romo finally got on the same page last week vs. Eagles, with Williams running tighter/shorter routes and seeing much more success.
2. Initially I was thinking Panthers might be a good pick here, but looking back and seeing the Falcons record is really eye-opening, they're 5-3 losing only to the top teams and I'm liking Falcons a lot in this matchup.
3. KC I lean towards taking the ML when playing in Oakland, I give edge to the Chiefs and think that releasing LJ is good for the team, less drama etc., thus I expect a better running game for Chiefs here. QB comparisions I also give edge to KC.
4. Chargers/Eagles I'm leaning Philly, this game is tricky I'll have to look at more info, might even be a no play for me.
5. Lions/Vikings I had as a no play, but might drop small bet on Lions. 17 points is a ton, even vs. these 2 teams.
6. I like your Over/Under Picks, especially Saints/Rams. This would require Saints to be doing almost all of the scoring.
Thanks guys, it is really nice to get some intelligent and detailed feedback. (My picks tend to get ignored, probably because there is a lot to read!). A little feedback to your feedback:
balman: Re the Carolina game, I would equally say don't let Atlanta's home wins over Miami (a turnover win in which the Falcons were outperformed in almost every category) or Carolina (outyardaged) fool you. As for Romo, I wouldn't like to try to predict when he'll be good or bad. Fundamentally, I just think the Packers are undervalued by the line of +3.
Sportscruncher, regarding Oak/KC, you make some good points. However, both teams' run defenses are giving up almost identical ypc, while Oakland's pass defense has been dramatically better than the Chiefs', against comparable schedules. I really like Matt Cassell in the long term, agreed, but it just isn't happening for him at KC at present, it's check-downs all the way. Perhaps Randy Moss and Wes Welker made him look a bit better than he really is, last season. The fact that the Chiefs heavily outgained Oakland in the reverse fixture is definitely a red flag - but some baffling coaching decisions helped throw away the win for KC and that's a red flag in the opposite direction.
Anyway, all you guys make good points and - curse you! - undermine my confidence in my picks. However, my handicapping process is what it is (heavily stat-based) and the results have been good recently. I'd take 6-3 this weekend if it were offered to me
Limey thanks for the feed back... trust me i wouldnt lose confidence in your picks, we all know these games can always go either way. We can all look at stats till we are BLUE in the face but who knows who will win the turnover battle as that decides more game than yards for.... best of luck hopefully we all make some moeny. what do you think about Denver -3 at Wash?
car reaLLY? THIS GM TOUGH FOR ME TO CALL LOVE ATL A LEGIT PLAYOFF TEAM IN MY BOOK.. LINE DEF FISHY AND CAR MAY BE THE PLAY BUT I LIKE THAT ATL DOESNT LOSE WHEN TURNER GETS 100 AND I DONT THINK THAT GONNA BE A PROBLEM IN THIS CASE
Heartbreaking results elsewhere: I lost on the Lions by the half-point that I lost by placing my bet at the exact wrong time. Miami only needed to run out the clock under two minutes to keep their game under, but turned it over leading to 10 points in the final two minutes, if I understand correctly. Saints/Rams went over by ONE frickin' point. Ugh.
2-1 in the late games with San Diego and GREEN BAY winning for me. 5-4 for the weekend. (6-4 if you count the Packers ML and spread bets as two separate bets, which I suppose they are, really).
nice picks.. if you had hit detroit you wouldve had a gigantic day.
i had the detroit pick as well... actually thought they would win straight up . to be honest, they had their chances.. just did not execute when required. no matter what anybody says, they were the right upset pick even on a ML bet.
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