[SteveRyan]

64% on New England and the line moved up to the key 3.

It's been at -3 since the 15th and there has been little change to the betting percentages since that time. It's mostly been bouncing back and forth between 53% and 57% for the last couple days. There was a slight rise today to 58%-60% on NE spread but the line did not change. It's still at -3.

11/15	10:31 PM	28%	72%	34%	66%	26%	74%
11/16	12:19 AM	27%	73%	34%	66%	26%	74%
11/16	01:04 AM	28%	72%	34%	66%	26%	74%
11/16	06:34 AM	28%	72%	35%	65%	26%	74%
11/16	08:25 AM	28%	72%	36%	64%	26%	74%
11/16	11:13 AM	29%	71%	36%	64%	26%	74%
11/16	11:40 AM	31%	69%	36%	64%	26%	74%
11/16	11:52 AM	31%	69%	36%	64%	25%	75%
11/16	12:25 PM	32%	68%	36%	64%	25%	75%
11/16	01:10 PM	32%	68%	36%	64%	26%	74%
11/16	01:37 PM	33%	67%	36%	64%	26%	74%
11/16	02:37 PM	34%	66%	36%	64%	26%	74%
11/16	03:04 PM	34%	66%	37%	63%	26%	74%
11/16	03:28 PM	34%	66%	36%	64%	26%	74%
11/16	04:16 PM	34%	66%	36%	64%	27%	73%
11/16	04:28 PM	34%	66%	37%	63%	27%	73%
11/16	04:52 PM	36%	64%	37%	63%	27%	73%
11/16	05:16 PM	36%	64%	37%	63%	28%	72%
11/16	05:28 PM	38%	62%	37%	63%	28%	72%
11/16	07:10 PM	38%	62%	37%	63%	27%	73%
11/16	07:34 PM	39%	61%	38%	62%	27%	73%
11/16	08:04 PM	39%	61%	38%	62%	28%	72%
11/16	08:52 PM	38%	62%	38%	62%	28%	72%
11/16	09:28 PM	39%	61%	38%	62%	28%	72%
11/16	10:22 PM	37%	63%	38%	62%	28%	72%
11/16	10:58 PM	38%	62%	38%	62%	28%	72%
11/16	11:34 PM	37%	63%	38%	62%	28%	72%
11/16	11:58 PM	38%	62%	39%	61%	28%	72%
11/17	12:10 AM	37%	63%	38%	62%	28%	72%
11/17	12:13 AM	38%	62%	39%	61%	28%	72%
11/17	12:19 AM	37%	63%	39%	61%	27%	73%
11/17	12:31 AM	38%	62%	39%	61%	28%	72%
11/17	01:13 AM	38%	62%	39%	61%	29%	71%
11/17	01:52 AM	38%	62%	43%	57%	29%	71%
11/17	02:49 AM	37%	63%	43%	57%	30%	70%
11/17	03:16 AM	47%	53%	43%	57%	30%	70%
11/17	03:22 AM	48%	52%	44%	56%	30%	70%
11/17	06:43 AM	49%	51%	44%	56%	30%	70%
11/17	07:10 AM	48%	52%	44%	56%	30%	70%
11/17	07:46 AM	49%	51%	44%	56%	30%	70%
11/17	07:55 AM	48%	52%	44%	56%	30%	70%
11/17	08:25 AM	49%	51%	44%	56%	30%	70%
11/17	08:34 AM	49%	51%	44%	56%	31%	69%
11/17	09:01 AM	49%	51%	46%	54%	31%	69%
11/17	09:28 AM	49%	51%	45%	55%	31%	69%
11/17	09:37 AM	48%	52%	46%	54%	31%	69%
11/17	10:07 AM	48%	52%	46%	54%	32%	68%
11/17	10:34 AM	49%	51%	46%	54%	32%	68%
11/17	10:43 AM	48%	52%	45%	55%	32%	68%
11/17	11:10 AM	48%	52%	45%	55%	31%	69%
11/17	11:58 AM	48%	52%	45%	55%	32%	68%
11/17	12:31 PM	48%	52%	45%	55%	33%	67%
11/17	01:04 PM	47%	53%	44%	56%	33%	67%
11/17	01:13 PM	46%	54%	44%	56%	33%	67%
11/17	01:22 PM	46%	54%	44%	56%	34%	66%
11/17	01:40 PM	46%	54%	44%	56%	35%	65%
11/17	01:49 PM	46%	54%	45%	55%	35%	65%
11/17	02:43 PM	46%	54%	44%	56%	35%	65%
11/17	03:31 PM	46%	54%	44%	56%	36%	64%
11/17	03:40 PM	45%	55%	44%	56%	36%	64%
11/17	04:37 PM	44%	56%	44%	56%	36%	64%
11/17	04:55 PM	44%	56%	45%	55%	36%	64%
11/17	05:04 PM	44%	56%	45%	55%	38%	62%
11/17	05:22 PM	43%	57%	45%	55%	38%	62%
11/17	05:31 PM	44%	56%	45%	55%	38%	62%
11/17	05:40 PM	42%	58%	45%	55%	38%	62%
11/17	06:19 PM	42%	58%	45%	55%	39%	61%
11/17	06:28 PM	42%	58%	44%	56%	39%	61%
11/17	06:37 PM	41%	59%	45%	55%	39%	61%
11/17	06:55 PM	41%	59%	44%	56%	39%	61%
11/17	07:25 PM	41%	59%	43%	57%	40%	60%
11/17	07:46 PM	40%	60%	43%	57%	40%	60%
11/17	07:58 PM	39%	61%	43%	57%	41%	59%
11/17	08:10 PM	39%	61%	43%	57%	43%	57%
11/17	08:22 PM	39%	61%	43%	57%	45%	55%
11/17	08:49 PM	39%	61%	43%	57%	46%	54%
11/17	09:16 PM	38%	62%	43%	57%	46%	54%
11/17	09:55 PM	38%	62%	44%	56%	47%	53%
11/17	10:16 PM	38%	62%	44%	56%	46%	54%
11/17	10:25 PM	38%	62%	43%	57%	47%	53%
11/17	10:37 PM	35%	65%	44%	56%	47%	53%
11/17	11:01 PM	35%	65%	43%	57%	47%	53%
11/17	11:10 PM	35%	65%	44%	56%	47%	53%
11/18	12:04 AM	34%	66%	44%	56%	47%	53%
11/18	12:13 AM	34%	66%	44%	56%	48%	52%
11/18	12:22 AM	32%	68%	44%	56%	54%	46%
11/18	12:31 AM	33%	67%	44%	56%	54%	46%
11/18	12:40 AM	32%	68%	44%	56%	54%	46%
11/18	12:49 AM	31%	69%	44%	56%	55%	45%
11/18	01:01 AM	29%	71%	46%	54%	55%	45%
11/18	01:10 AM	29%	71%	47%	53%	57%	43%
11/18	01:25 AM	30%	70%	47%	53%	57%	43%
11/18	01:34 AM	31%	69%	48%	52%	57%	43%
11/18	01:52 AM	31%	69%	48%	52%	58%	42%
11/18	01:58 AM	30%	70%	48%	52%	57%	43%
11/18	02:49 AM	30%	70%	48%	52%	58%	42%
11/18	05:10 AM	30%	70%	48%	52%	59%	41%
11/18	05:31 AM	29%	71%	48%	52%	59%	41%
11/18	06:34 AM	29%	71%	46%	54%	59%	41%
11/18	07:28 AM	29%	71%	46%	54%	58%	42%
11/18	07:40 AM	29%	71%	46%	54%	59%	41%
11/18	08:22 AM	29%	71%	47%	53%	59%	41%
11/18	08:25 AM	29%	71%	46%	54%	59%	41%
11/18	08:52 AM	29%	71%	46%	54%	58%	42%
11/18	09:01 AM	28%	72%	46%	54%	58%	42%
11/18	09:04 AM	28%	72%	46%	54%	59%	41%
11/18	09:10 AM	28%	72%	46%	54%	60%	40%
11/18	09:28 AM	28%	72%	46%	54%	59%	41%
11/18	09:46 AM	27%	73%	46%	54%	58%	42%
11/18	09:49 AM	28%	72%	47%	53%	57%	43%
11/18	09:55 AM	27%	73%	47%	53%	58%	42%
11/18	10:01 AM	27%	73%	47%	53%	57%	43%
11/18	10:04 AM	27%	73%	48%	52%	57%	43%
11/18	10:10 AM	27%	73%	47%	53%	57%	43%
11/18	10:16 AM	27%	73%	48%	52%	57%	43%
11/18	10:25 AM	27%	73%	45%	55%	57%	43%
11/18	10:34 AM	26%	74%	45%	55%	58%	42%
11/18	10:46 AM	27%	73%	45%	55%	48%	52%
11/18	10:52 AM	26%	74%	45%	55%	48%	52%
11/18	11:10 AM	26%	74%	44%	56%	48%	52%
11/18	11:16 AM	26%	74%	44%	56%	47%	53%
11/18	11:19 AM	26%	74%	44%	56%	48%	52%
11/18	11:49 AM	25%	75%	44%	56%	49%	51%
11/18	11:55 AM	25%	75%	43%	57%	49%	51%
11/18	11:58 AM	25%	75%	43%	57%	48%	52%
11/18	12:04 PM	25%	75%	43%	57%	49%	51%
11/18	12:16 PM	25%	75%	43%	57%	48%	52%
11/18	12:25 PM	25%	75%	44%	56%	48%	52%
11/18	12:28 PM	25%	75%	43%	57%	48%	52%
11/18	12:34 PM	24%	76%	43%	57%	48%	52%
11/18	12:40 PM	24%	76%	43%	57%	49%	51%
11/18	12:55 PM	23%	77%	43%	57%	49%	51%
11/18	01:10 PM	23%	77%	43%	57%	50%	50%
11/18	01:16 PM	23%	77%	43%	57%	49%	51%
11/18	01:25 PM	23%	77%	43%	57%	50%	50%
11/18	01:28 PM	23%	77%	44%	56%	50%	50%
11/18	01:46 PM	22%	78%	44%	56%	50%	50%
11/18	02:04 PM	22%	78%	45%	55%	49%	51%
11/18	02:16 PM	22%	78%	45%	55%	50%	50%
11/18	02:28 PM	23%	77%	45%	55%	50%	50%
11/18	02:40 PM	23%	77%	45%	55%	49%	51%
11/18	02:46 PM	23%	77%	45%	55%	50%	50%
11/18	03:04 PM	23%	77%	46%	54%	49%	51%
11/18	03:10 PM	22%	78%	46%	54%	50%	50%
11/18	03:22 PM	24%	76%	46%	54%	50%	50%
11/18	03:34 PM	24%	76%	45%	55%	50%	50%
11/18	03:46 PM	24%	76%	45%	55%	51%	49%
11/18	03:55 PM	25%	75%	45%	55%	51%	49%
11/18	04:01 PM	25%	75%	45%	55%	50%	50%
11/18	04:10 PM	25%	75%	45%	55%	51%	49%
11/18	04:16 PM	25%	75%	46%	54%	51%	49%
11/18	04:19 PM	25%	75%	45%	55%	51%	49%
11/18	04:25 PM	24%	76%	45%	55%	51%	49%
11/18	04:28 PM	25%	75%	45%	55%	50%	50%
11/18	04:31 PM	25%	75%	46%	54%	50%	50%
11/18	04:40 PM	25%	75%	45%	55%	50%	50%
11/18	04:55 PM	24%	76%	45%	55%	51%	49%
11/18	04:58 PM	24%	76%	45%	55%	50%	50%
11/18	05:04 PM	24%	76%	44%	56%	50%	50%
11/18	05:10 PM	24%	76%	43%	57%	54%	46%
11/18	05:16 PM	24%	76%	43%	57%	53%	47%
11/18	05:46 PM	23%	77%	42%	58%	53%	47%
11/18	06:01 PM	23%	77%	41%	59%	54%	46%
11/18	06:10 PM	23%	77%	40%	60%	54%	46%

[Ra77er]

I think I can dodge bullets now thanks for the matrix.

[Pivotpoint]

Doubt $10k-$50k is moving line on to key # of 3.

Handle on this game is huge. Maybe rapid hits on Panthers occuring in short time frame would cause adjustments. Books are looking for dollars, fierce competition on the strip. Vegas Hilton and Southpoint will take serious bets, among others.

People are always superstitious, love conspiracy theories.

I'd like to say, stick with your original thought, bets, or how you think this game will play out.

Have to be honest though, on the fence if I want to hedge and attempt to middle Pats +9. Last leg of a big teaser. I'm a little surprised by the move to + 3 for the Pats on MNF.

Many fans of Panthers, now, cashing 5 straight.

Pats + points is usually rare and solid. Can be risky on the road. No team has burned me more than the Pats. I've been wrong on the Panthers before, tough to trust as fav, solid dog play.

gl with your picks boys

[SteveRyan]

Some people don't even know what RLM actually is. They see the line go the other way and think it's reverse line movement.

[LT Profits]

It's been at -3 since the 15th and there has been little change to the betting percentages since that time. It's mostly been bouncing back and forth between 53% and 57% for the last couple days. There was a slight rise today to 58%-60% on NE spread but the line did not change. It's still at -3.

OK I didn't realize it went to -3 Friday. I thought I saw -2.5 yesterday. As for the percentages, they will vary depending on your source because different sources use different sportsbooks.

[Ra77er]

RLM hit Carolina -1 at a few different books. Steam at CRIS on the total O and U. Good luck

[Mayonnaise]

i wish everybody the best of luck tonite, but i think people are drinking the carolina kool aid. i know they have been playing great ball, but against shiity teams.... i have LARGE money on the Pats to win sraight up tonite, and if they, lose, i can hapily hang my hat on tom brady on MNF comin off a bye week playing the panthers..... as a dog.... GL to everyone tonite

[LT Profits]

I have always used 70's as a threshold percentage for RLM myself. Also a full point in movement.

I don't see either here, but maybe others differentiate on the parameters.

In the NFL, 2.5 to 3 and 3 to 3.5 are equivalent to full-point moves. Costs at least 25 cents to buy those half-points.

[RubberKettle]

Pats for me, cam newton not that great and pats are off a bye.

[jimminn]

Just saw Belicheck's daughter on ESPN. A real wide bottom. He has to tell her to put the fork down!!

[odog11]

Patriots D gets Talib back and Vereen returns. Carolina has not faced an offense like this all year, faced overall soft/mediocre O's. Patriots off the buy with the points, was going to get greedy and take the ML, but 3 points in NFL is big. Also see this one going over most likely.

[swordsandtequila]

Talib isn't 100% (hip) and no Wilfork/Mayo so their run defense is questionable at best. Be surprised if Carolina doesn't come out pounding the rock. Toss up imo, no play for me. Good luck with your picks.

[BettingWizard]

RLM stopped mattering 5 years ago

[stevenash]

And I'll say it again, don't let RLM get you off your bet.
You like a side, you bet the side, shop around for the best number you can get, but I can not stress this enough, you like a side, bet the side.

Simple

[atofsu32111]

his daughter..... look at that pic next time you wonder how ugly your wife is

[Ra77er]

Handsome dude there, motley crue making a comeback.

[Dr.Gonzo]

his daughter..... look at that pic next time you wonder how ugly your wife is

She's lucky she's rich, that's all I'm gonna say.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Pinny lean is also on Carolina.

[swissmix19]

his daughter..... look at that pic next time you wonder how ugly your wife is

actually, his name clay matthews

[stevenash]

his daughter..... look at that pic next time you wonder how ugly your wife is

She probably can take on half of all dudes.

[pavyracer]

How in the fukk it's reverse line movement? The line hasn't budged from +3 all week.

[stevenash]

How in the fukk it's reverse line movement? The line hasn't budged from +3 all week.

True.
Bovada has been +1 all week, but that's Bovada

[ChalkyDog]

In the NFL, 2.5 to 3 and 3 to 3.5 are equivalent to full-point moves. Costs at least 25 cents to buy those half-points.

That's an absolutely fair point.