1. 11-10-13 06:48 PM #1
    Eric22174
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    Cowboys and Over.....Cowboys ML

    The last two times these teams have met, the scores have been high, with the Saints pulling out three-point wins both times. I see another high-scoring game, with the Cowboys' offense not holding back, knowing they must put up points against Drew Brees & Co. They will, but will it be enough? I'm going to say it will. The Cowboys are 11-0 when DeMarco Murray has more than 18 carries. But I think the impact of Ramon Harper and Malcolm Jenkins being out on the back end for the Saints will really cause trouble for this Saints secondary. Bryant and Terrance Williams will have huge games. The Saints are banged up, especially on the defensive end, while Dallas gets DeMarcus Ware back. I think this is the week Tony Romo takes down one of the NFC's best teams and the Cowboys officially arrive as a serious contender in the NFC
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  2. 11-10-13 07:02 PM #2
    Eric22174
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    Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement

    Since the start of the 2010 NFL season there have been 225 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points less than the opening line.
    In these games, the team like Dallas did better against the spread, going 118-105-2 (52.9% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.


    Closing Spread Game Count Win Record Win % Average MOV Cover Record Cover %
    -26.5 1 1-0-0 100.0% 16 0-1-0 0.0%
    -19.5 1 1-0-0 100.0% 28 1-0-0 100.0%
    -16 3 3-0-0 100.0% 17 1-1-1 50.0%
    -13 1 1-0-0 100.0% 5 0-1-0 0.0%
    -11.5 1 0-1-0 0.0% -2 0-1-0 0.0%
    -11 4 4-0-0 100.0% 12.25 2-2-0 50.0%
    -10.5 4 3-1-0 75.0% 8.25 2-2-0 50.0%
    -10 7 5-2-0 71.4% 6.57 3-4-0 42.9%
    -9.5 3 2-1-0 66.7% 5 1-2-0 33.3%
    -9 1 1-0-0 100.0% 18 1-0-0 100.0%
    -8 1 1-0-0 100.0% 24 1-0-0 100.0%
    -7.5 12 10-2-0 83.3% 8.58 7-5-0 58.3%
    -7 5 4-1-0 80.0% 6.8 2-3-0 40.0%
    -6.5 2 2-0-0 100.0% 14 2-0-0 100.0%
    -6 8 4-4-0 50.0% 3.88 2-6-0 25.0%


    Results Based on Closing Over/Under Line

    All Teams
    Closing Over/Under Game Count Record Over % Under % Push % Average Score
    60 1 1-0-0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 61.00
    59.5 1 1-0-0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 73.00
    58.5 1 1-0-0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.00
    58 1 1-0-0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59.00
    57.5 1 1-0-0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 72.00
    57 3 2-1-0 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 59.67
    56.5 5 2-3-0 40.0% 60.0% 0.0% 55.40
    56 4 3-1-0 75.0% 25.0% 0.0% 69.50
    55.5 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 60.00
    55 9 3-6-0 33.3% 66.7% 0.0% 51.22
    54.5 9 3-6-0 33.3% 66.7% 0.0% 50.56
    54 7 5-2-0 71.4% 28.6% 0.0% 54.29
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  3. 11-10-13 07:02 PM #3
    Eric22174
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    "
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  4. 11-10-13 07:05 PM #4
    brigade125
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    Shouldn't the line move up for the saints if the public is on the saints?
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  5. 11-10-13 07:06 PM #5
    Eric22174
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    You would think but it's reverse line movement. Looks like the right side maybe the Cowboys.
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  6. 11-10-13 07:09 PM #6
    flyboy
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    Not always. I think the public gets buried tonight on this game.
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  7. 11-10-13 07:09 PM #7
    Eric22174
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    L Defensive End






    Nose Tackle






    R Defensive End







    L Outside Linebacker






    L Inside Linebacker






    R Inside Linebacker






    R Outside Linebacker







    L Cornerback






    Strong Safety






    Free Safety






    R Cornerback








    BASE 3-4 D


    If you've played football you know how important it is to have your starting safeties in the game.
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  8. 11-10-13 07:48 PM #8
    Eric22174
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    Would like more pts but i'll take 3. Got Dallas at -6.5
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  9. 11-10-13 09:40 PM #9
    Goatboy
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    How's that chart working out for you?

    just curious what do you do for a living with such stats...and then everything go completly wrong?
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  10. 11-10-13 09:41 PM #10
    pulledclear
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    Great write up!
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  11. 11-10-13 09:42 PM #11
    pulledclear
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    "Tony Romo takes down one of the NFC's best teams and the Cowboys officially arrive as a serious contender in the NFC"

    SBR Dumbest quote of the year front runner.
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  12. 11-10-13 10:23 PM #12
    Eric22174
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    May have lost the Cowboys but cashed the over. You can always rag on someone when ur on top but just remember when u r down.
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