1. 11-10-13 10:34 AM #1
    ThaTopMoron
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    Easy Week Guys... Its Simple

    Lots of points this week

    Carolina San Fran over 43.... this one is a laugher
    Giants Over 41
    Denver Over 57 automatic
    Dallas Over 53... Romo in November, In Dome. Brees vs Cover 2 w/Jimmy... night game. Nuff said

    Put $200 on this as a parlay and make a quick 2k
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  2. 11-10-13 11:04 AM #2
    Eddy Munny
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    Don't like the Over in the Frisco-Carolina game at all.......I'm seeing a 24-17 ballgame at the most.
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  3. 11-10-13 11:07 AM #3
    dymd3z
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    my book has a .5 on every one of these !!
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  4. 11-10-13 11:10 AM #4
    DOM-Ganador
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    Your advice is a 4 team parlay? For $200.00. Bookies absolutely love these bets. Ticket?
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  5. 11-10-13 11:10 AM #5
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by dymd3z View Post
    my book has a .5 on every one of these !!
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  6. 11-10-13 11:11 AM #6
    No coincidences
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    Overs hitting at over 56% right now -- I wouldn't bet any over at this point unless you had really solid info. That # will be in the 51-52% range by season's end. There are some serious corrections coming.
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  7. 11-10-13 11:16 AM #7
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Overs hitting at over 56% right now -- I wouldn't bet any over at this point unless you had really solid info. That # will be in the 51-52% range by season's end. There are some serious corrections coming.
    of the 4 he choose the sunday nighter the only one i think is inflated (not that they all gonna hit, i have no idea) and i guess for good reason cause sun night been freakng shootout city,, i made that one lower but scared of it..
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  8. 11-10-13 11:17 AM #8
    jayc88
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Overs hitting at over 56% right now -- I wouldn't bet any over at this point unless you had really solid info. That # will be in the 51-52% range by season's end. There are some serious corrections coming.
    ink
    this makes absolutely no sense sorry
    how many nfl games were played so far this season ?
    I think it might be around 130.

    Just because overs have been hitting at 56 % does not mean the lines were off and books will adjust.
    Bet all unders from now on and if you are ahead at the end i will ship you 1000
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  9. 11-10-13 11:18 AM #9
    Christopher1991
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    I quite like this parley,the only concern for me is the Denver game.I see the chargers doing the same gameplan they did to the Colts and keeping Manning of the field for as long as possible.That being said I'm still going to tail you.
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  10. 11-10-13 11:19 AM #10
    mbs4
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Overs hitting at over 56% right now -- I wouldn't bet any over at this point unless you had really solid info. That # will be in the 51-52% range by season's end. There are some serious corrections coming.
    This is the definition of the gambler's fallacy.
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  11. 11-10-13 11:21 AM #11
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christopher1991 View Post
    I quite like this parley,the only concern for me is the Denver game.I see the chargers doing the same gameplan they did to the Colts and keeping Manning of the field for as long as possible.That being said I'm still going to tail you.
    if you go back a page or 2 in my thread i kinda addressed your concerns on this gm and they are valid but think there reasonable counterpoints to make for the over but dont wanna re-write.
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  12. 11-10-13 11:25 AM #12
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by jayc88 View Post
    Just because overs have been hitting at 56 % does not mean the lines were off and books will adjust.
    Bet all unders from now on and if you are ahead at the end i will ship you 1000
    Are you kidding me?
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  13. 11-10-13 11:26 AM #13
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by mbs4 View Post
    This is the definition of the gambler's fallacy.
    Not in the NFL it isn't.

    I'll gladly bump this thread at the end of the regular season.
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  14. 11-10-13 11:42 AM #14
    jjgold
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaTopMoron View Post
    Lots of points this week

    Carolina San Fran over 43.... this one is a laugher
    Giants Over 41
    Denver Over 57 automatic
    Dallas Over 53... Romo in November, In Dome. Brees vs Cover 2 w/Jimmy... night game. Nuff said

    Put $200 on this as a parlay and make a quick 2k
    Its not that easy guy, I wish it was

    best of luck
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  15. 11-10-13 11:50 AM #15
    jayc88
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Are you kidding me?
    do you know the probabilites of one side coming up 56 times or more if you flip a coin 100 times?
    I guess not
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  16. 11-10-13 11:59 AM #16
    stevenash
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    Love the NYG over myself.
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  17. 11-10-13 12:41 PM #17
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Love the NYG over myself.
    17 first quarter pts so far. Good start
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  18. 11-10-13 12:49 PM #18
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by jayc88 View Post
    do you know the probabilites of one side coming up 56 times or more if you flip a coin 100 times?
    I guess not
    We're not flipping coins here, chief.
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  19. 11-10-13 01:24 PM #19
    Noleafclover
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    So make your own numbers, and lay off when you see a correction. These numbers still look suited to overs.
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  20. 11-10-13 02:10 PM #20
    qweretyq
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    Quote Originally Posted by jayc88 View Post
    do you know the probabilites of one side coming up 56 times or more if you flip a coin 100 times?
    I guess not
    It is actually pretty good, around 13%
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  21. 11-10-13 02:16 PM #21
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Coin I agree you are overthinking this one. It's a new modern era of pass/flag happy football and books are unwilling to adjust to this point. If overs for the season hit at a clip of 55%-57% I would not be shocked!
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  22. 11-10-13 02:18 PM #22
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Coin I agree you are overthinking this one. It's a new modern era of pass/flag happy football and books are unwilling to adjust to this point. If overs for the season hit at a clip of 55%-57% I would not be shocked!
    he isn't really... you just gotta pick the right games

    Bears game way under / Steelers game / Falcons game maybe / Packers game under
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