1. #1
    Pivotpoint
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    Bears + 10 1/2 and Over for me. Here's why......

    Full disclosure- Huge Bear fan. Regardless, I'm grabbing the points and would do so even if I wasn't.

    Yes, the Bears D is an embarrassment right now. Especially that penetrating safety combo of Major Wright and that huge punta' Conte.

    Peppers hasn't done jack all year. He goes against a rookie LT tonight. Have a gut feeling he steps up on MNF. Lots of people questioning Julius in Chicago + his massive $ contract.

    Tillman and Jennings are always very dangerous on the corners. Tillman should be fresh and aching knee impoved from bye. Peanut is one of my favorite Bears and here's to him punching out a ball tonight, pick 6 would be even better.

    McCown isn't that bad and we will see what the QB whisperer can do tonight with an extra week. If McCown gets rid of the ball quickly and Forte can take some heat off him, that would be huge. Coach, how about some off tackle runs and avoid "A" gap runs. Get Forte some screen passes, draws to slow down rush.

    Hair boy Matthews is out, Pack thin at receiver.

    Pack special teams soft. Giving up over 40 yards , on a punt or kick 3 wks in a row. Hester loves the lights and should provide some good field position once or twice, maybe go yard?

    Bears have tons of weapons yet on O and Line improving. If they double team Marshall, which they will, Martellus Bennet could have a big game in addition to Jeffrey.

    Packers have obvious edge on Defense + QB and Home field. Bears have edge with receivers and RB, and special teams with kicker Gould and Hester.

    I know all about the history of this match-up. But, before you lay double digits in a heated divisional game, don't forget that these teams are playing for 1st place.

    I haven't seen one newsletter or talking head say they like the Bears plus the points. Not one ! We all know how that usually works out when every newsletter says team A rolls over tean B. That should give one some pause.I might have overheard that Keyshawn Johnson like the Bears?

    Yeah, the Bears might get pounded tonite, then again maybe not. Lay double digits at your own risk in the NFL. It's one thing if we are talking Jaguars. Quite another when we are talking a heated rivalry, playing for 1st place in division against a team with weapons on offense and can score. Yes, I would love to see Cutler out there tonight. He's improved, but still can force throws, especially on MNF. McCown might end up doing a better job managing the game? We'll see.

    McCown is serviceable and knows the O. Trestman surely will try to get him to get rid of the ball quickly, get Forte a bunch of touches and go to Martellus often to set up Marshall and Jeffrey.

    I'm going to be aggressive here and grab the points. Hopefully the total will offset that play, if that Bear D collapses.


    Moneyline seems greedy, but points look juicy.

    Bears + 10 1/2 (2X)

    Chi/GB Over + 50 1/2 (3X)

    Two team Parlay

    Bears + 10 1/2 and Over 50 1/2 (1X)

    Gl TONITE. Hope it's a great game.


  2. #2
    meader99
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    Not sure the Bears have much of an edge at RB. The Packers can stop the run, and run the ball. The Bears can not stop the run. Things you couldn't have said about these two teams in their recent match ups.

  3. #3
    Pivotpoint
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    @ meader99 - I see Forte having a big edge, not only running, but more so as an all purpose back and receiving.

    Forte 116 carries ~ 533 yards ~ 4.6 ypc ~ 6 TD

    Lacy 112 carries ~ 466 yards ~ 4.0 ypc ~ 3 TD

    Big edge with Forte on receiving yards.

    Forte #107 with 262 yards

    Lacy # 210 with 78 yards

    Jordy Nelson has the best receiver stats on the field tonight @ #13 receiver.

    Bears counter with Jeffrey # 20 and Marshall #24.

    Looking at the last two games, as mentioned, Bears have rumbled for 293 yards on the ground and 4.5 ypc.

    Bears 16 takeaways and Packs #'s ATS not great when they turn the ball over.

    Tremendous respect for Rodgers, but he will have less options minus, Cobb,Jones and Finley.

    McCown has a bunch of options and Bears should (try) minimize Nelson with double teams. Bears receivers have big height advantage against smallish Pack secondary. As mentioned Conte and Wright worry me.

    If the Bears can jump out on top quick with Hester or a deep ball to Marshall or Jeffrey, Pack backers will be looking at down 17 1/2. That's a big if. Gl with your play.
    Last edited by Pivotpoint; 11-04-13 at 01:11 PM. Reason: typo

  4. #4
    brewcrew2k
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    Bears are garbage and lucky to be playing or first. But I think having Mr. Interception(Cutler) out tonight will help the bears.

    The only thing I will miss tonight is Charles Woodson intercepting a Jay Cutler pass.

  5. #5
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pivotpoint View Post
    @ meader99 - I see Forte having a big edge, not only running, but more so as an all purpose back and receiving.

    Forte 116 carries ~ 533 yards ~ 4.6 ypc ~ 6 TD

    Lacy 112 carries ~ 466 yards ~ 4.0 ypc ~ 3 TD

    Big edge with Forte on receiving yards.

    Forte #107 with 262 yards

    Lacy # 210 with 78 yards

    Jordy Nelson has the best receiver stats on the field tonight @ #13 receiver.

    Bears counter with Jeffrey # 20 and Marshall #24.

    Looking at the last two games, as mentioned, Bears have rumbled for 293 yards on the ground and 4.5 ypc.

    Bears 16 takeaways and Packs #'s ATS not great when they turn the ball over.

    Tremendous respect for Rodgers, but he will have less options minus, Cobb,Jones and Finley.

    McCown has a bunch of options and Bears should (try) minimize Finley with double teams. Bears receivers have big height advantage against smallish Pack secondary. As mentioned Conte and Wright worry me.

    If the Bears can jump out on top quick with Hester or a deep ball to Marshall or Jeffrey, Pack backers will be looking at down 17 1/2. That's a big if. Gl with your play.
    Finley? Did you mean Jordy Nelson?

  6. #6
    PorkChop
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    Bears TT o 20 (-120)

  7. #7
    Pivotpoint
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Finley? Did you mean Jordy Nelson?
    Yes, good catch. Bounced up and corrected.

  8. #8
    Pivotpoint
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    Quote Originally Posted by brewcrew2k View Post
    Bears are garbage and lucky to be playing or first. But I think having Mr. Interception(Cutler) out tonight will help the bears.

    The only thing I will miss tonight is Charles Woodson intercepting a Jay Cutler pass.
    Well, they haven't looked great at times, but "Garbage" is a little strong. You laying double digits here tonight with your Packers? Might be the play, but seems very risky to me. I hope it's a good game.

  9. #9
    jpot34
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    I do believe you'd have a better chance cashing with the dog tonight.
    Points Awarded:

    Black Hills gave jpot34 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  10. #10
    Black Hills
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    Great write- up, not sure I'm convinced yet but appreciate the info.....

  11. #11
    jpot34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Black Hills View Post
    Great write- up, not sure I'm convinced yet but appreciate the info.....


    No write up needed. If you've ever gambled, the writings on the wall. GL if you do play! :>))

  12. #12
    Eric22174
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    Chicago at Green Bay

    Monday Nov 4, 2013 - 8:40 pm - Green Bay, WI | Odds: Green Bay by 10, Total Points: 51 | Team Pages: CHI | GNB

    Head To Head (Since 1985 Season)

    Date Winner Winner H/A/N Score ATS Cover O/U Result
    12/16/12 Green Bay Away 21-13 Green Bay -3.0 Under 43.0
    09/13/12 Green Bay Home 23-10 Green Bay -5.0 Under 50.5
    12/25/11 Green Bay Home 35-21 Green Bay -13.0 Over 41.5
    09/25/11 Green Bay Away 27-17 Green Bay -4.0 Under 45.5
    01/23/11 Green Bay Away 21-14 Green Bay -3.5 Under 42.0
    01/02/11 Green Bay Home 10-3 Chicago +11.0 Under 43.5
    09/27/10 Chicago Home 20-17 Chicago +3.0 Under 45.5
    12/13/09 Green Bay Away 21-14 Green Bay -4.0 Under 41.0
    09/13/09 Green Bay Home 21-15 Green Bay -4.5 Under 47.0
    12/22/08 Chicago Home 20-17 Green Bay +4.0 Under 40.0
    11/16/08 Green Bay Home 37-3 Green Bay -3.5 Under 43.0
    12/23/07 Chicago Home 35-7 Chicago +9.0 Over 32.0
    10/07/07 Chicago Away 27-20 Chicago +3.0 Over 40.5
    12/31/06 Green Bay Away 26-7 Green Bay +3.5 Under 38.0
    09/10/06 Chicago Away 26-0 Chicago -3.5 Under 34.5
    12/25/05 Chicago Away 24-17 Green Bay +7.0 Over 31.0
    12/04/05 Chicago Home 19-7 Chicago -7.0 Under 32.0
    01/02/05 Green Bay Away 31-14 Green Bay +3.0 Over 34.0
    09/19/04 Chicago Away 21-10 Chicago +9.0 Under 42.0
    12/07/03 Green Bay Home 34-21 Green Bay -7.0 Over 39.0
    09/29/03 Green Bay Away 38-23 Green Bay -4.0 Over 41.5
    12/01/02 Green Bay Home 30-20 Green Bay -9.5 Over 37.5
    10/07/02 Green Bay Away 34-21 Green Bay +1.0 Over 44.5
    12/09/01 Green Bay Home 17-7 Green Bay -4.5 Under 37.0
    11/11/01 Green Bay Away 20-12 Green Bay -3.0 Under 38.0
    12/03/00 Green Bay Away 28-6 Green Bay -2.5 Under 39.5
    10/01/00 Chicago Away 27-24 Chicago +6.0 Over 41.0
    12/05/99 Green Bay Away 35-19 Green Bay -3.5 Over 36.5
    11/07/99 Chicago Away 14-13 Chicago +9.0 Under 40.5
    12/27/98 Green Bay Away 16-13 Chicago +6.5 Under 40.5


  13. #13
    Eric22174
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    Book

    51 points is the highest point total that this match up has seen in quite sometime. I'm guessing that this game is expected to be high scoring.

  14. #14
    Black Hills
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    Hey, sorry Jpot34, that was for the OP, accidentally gave you the pts.. Lol Good Luck,

  15. #15
    meader99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pivotpoint View Post
    @ meader99 - I see Forte having a big edge, not only running, but more so as an all purpose back and receiving.

    Forte 116 carries ~ 533 yards ~ 4.6 ypc ~ 6 TD

    Lacy 112 carries ~ 466 yards ~ 4.0 ypc ~ 3 TD

    Big edge with Forte on receiving yards.

    Forte #107 with 262 yards

    Lacy # 210 with 78 yards

    Jordy Nelson has the best receiver stats on the field tonight @ #13 receiver.

    Bears counter with Jeffrey # 20 and Marshall #24.

    Looking at the last two games, as mentioned, Bears have rumbled for 293 yards on the ground and 4.5 ypc.

    Bears 16 takeaways and Packs #'s ATS not great when they turn the ball over.

    Tremendous respect for Rodgers, but he will have less options minus, Cobb,Jones and Finley.

    McCown has a bunch of options and Bears should (try) minimize Nelson with double teams. Bears receivers have big height advantage against smallish Pack secondary. As mentioned Conte and Wright worry me.

    If the Bears can jump out on top quick with Hester or a deep ball to Marshall or Jeffrey, Pack backers will be looking at down 17 1/2. That's a big if. Gl with your play.
    Not just speaking of only Lacy, but the Packers run game in general. Lacy missed 2 games and in those 2 games, Starks and Franklin each put up over 100 yards. I believe the Pack wins by double digits, however, I rarely bet for or against the Pack, including tonight.

  16. #16
    Matty Mo
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    All Packers tonight... GB has covered 5 straight ATS vs Bears. This one is at home and Bears are lost right now.. easy W for GB. Look at last Sunday - Rodgers and GB play well under the spotlight. 35-20 GB W prediction.

  17. #17
    I am the one
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    GB covers

  18. #18
    greatcapping
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    I saw this linked up to over at CappersList, great write up. I'm leaning more and more on the dog. Can't make up my mind, this helped though thanks for taking to time.

  19. #19
    Mako-SBR
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    Sucks, said it last night, worst feeling bet I've made in ages, but a big div dog is a big div dog. Have to go with the stinky Bears.

    As bad as they are, they're not the Vikings.

  20. #20
    Noleafclover
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pivotpoint View Post

    Forte 116 carries ~ 533 yards ~ 4.6 ypc ~ 6 TD

    Lacy 112 carries ~ 466 yards ~ 4.0 ypc ~ 3 TD

    Big edge with Forte on receiving yards.

    Forte #107 with 262 yards

    Lacy # 210 with 78 yards
    Both of these stats are misleading. With Lacy injured, he's gotten more carries in the games he has played. And as carries go up, yards a carry goes down because defenses are keying in on the run. It's also worth mentioning the Packers play with a large lead often, where you see them cram it up the middle for a yard and punt late in 3rd and in the 4th.

    He's started catching the ball more these past two games as well, seriously considering Lacy > 2.5 catches -140.

    What do you think of McCown over 20.5 receptions (-115)? I chose that over yards since he seems to throw shorter passes, is that pretty much a correct assessment? But I think even if you're taking the points you might not take a largely deviant view of my picture of the game, which is McCown gets the passes as the bears trail most of the game.

    Also, your avatar is pretty damn distracting. Don't think I've seen a perkier pair. How... gravity.. just how.

  21. #21
    Pivotpoint
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    Quote Originally Posted by meader99 View Post
    Not just speaking of only Lacy, but the Packers run game in general. Lacy missed 2 games and in those 2 games, Starks and Franklin each put up over 100 yards. I believe the Pack wins by double digits, however, I rarely bet for or against the Pack, including tonight.
    I hear ya. I'll grab the Bears here and there, but it's silly to bet with your heart. Been playing mostly the over in the games . Mostly due to D and more aggressive play calling with Trestman. If I bet the Bears every week, my account would be lighter, since they're a miserable 1-6 ATS. When you can get a division matchup and double digits, well that gets my attention. Unless of course we are talking Viqueens. Frazier is a buffon and QB situation a clusterpenetrate. New word.

    I'm a fan of Lacy, since he hails from the Tide. Won a lot of money on him and Tide, most recently the BCS. Hoping the Bears can slow him down. Could be tough starting two rookie LB's, but he's a rookie also. I like this kid Bostic, hope he steps up and plays aggressive. Lacy can get his yards in other games than tonight.

    Got a gut feeling Marshall and Jeffrey have big games. Nelson will get his catches, but wagering Bennet can also hurt the Pack in the middle with Matthews out.

    Is it true that Clay hurt his thumb due to weakness developed from excess combing and whipping his hair back and forth? Ihear those chunky soup commercial producers are awfully demanding ? Clay wanted his hair just right. Just bustin your balls.

    Even if things don't pan out, back door should be open late.

    Hope the refs don't come into play and the best team wins.

  22. #22
    gummybear00
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    The trend for CHI vs GB has been UNDER. The problem is this is in GB and primetime. The Packers might want to show off and make a statement by blowing out the Bears.

    Rogers can make any loser WR into a superstar. Boykin was terrible when Cobb/Jones went down. Ran wrong routes, dropped passes. Week later, 100 yards, 1 td, week after that 89 yards.

  23. #23
    Pivotpoint
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noleafclover View Post
    Both of these stats are misleading. With Lacy injured, he's gotten more carries in the games he has played. And as carries go up, yards a carry goes down because defenses are keying in on the run. It's also worth mentioning the Packers play with a large lead often, where you see them cram it up the middle for a yard and punt late in 3rd and in the 4th.

    He's started catching the ball more these past two games as well, seriously considering Lacy > 2.5 catches -140.

    What do you think of McCown over 20.5 receptions (-115)? I chose that over yards since he seems to throw shorter passes, is that pretty much a correct assessment? But I think even if you're taking the points you might not take a largely deviant view of my picture of the game, which is McCown gets the passes as the bears trail most of the game.

    Also, your avatar is pretty damn distracting. Don't think I've seen a perkier pair. How... gravity.. just how.
    I still contend the stats help validate Forte as better rounded + real weapon in this matchup. You can argue most stats, but it's a start. Great hands, deceptive speed and he rarely turns over the ball.

    McCown is more of a dink and dunk. Doesn't have even close to the velocity of Cutler and he knows it. Trestman likes the shorter game, setting tempo. I like the over 20.5 with lots of swings,screens, quick slants and other high % passes. I'm not betting that.

    I will tell you one prop bet I like with the Bears and it hits more often than not. SurprisIngly it's always the same # @ + 150.

    ~ CHI/GB (Yes) Special Teams or Def TD. +$150.

    Regarding avatar, you should see her when it's cold.

  24. #24
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric22174 View Post
    Chicago at Green Bay

    Monday Nov 4, 2013 - 8:40 pm - Green Bay, WI | Odds: Green Bay by 10, Total Points: 51 | Team Pages: CHI | GNB

    Head To Head (Since 1985 Season)

    Date Winner Winner H/A/N Score ATS Cover O/U Result
    12/16/12 Green Bay Away 21-13 Green Bay -3.0 Under 43.0
    09/13/12 Green Bay Home 23-10 Green Bay -5.0 Under 50.5
    12/25/11 Green Bay Home 35-21 Green Bay -13.0 Over 41.5
    09/25/11 Green Bay Away 27-17 Green Bay -4.0 Under 45.5
    01/23/11 Green Bay Away 21-14 Green Bay -3.5 Under 42.0
    01/02/11 Green Bay Home 10-3 Chicago +11.0 Under 43.5
    09/27/10 Chicago Home 20-17 Chicago +3.0 Under 45.5
    12/13/09 Green Bay Away 21-14 Green Bay -4.0 Under 41.0
    09/13/09 Green Bay Home 21-15 Green Bay -4.5 Under 47.0
    12/22/08 Chicago Home 20-17 Green Bay +4.0 Under 40.0
    11/16/08 Green Bay Home 37-3 Green Bay -3.5 Under 43.0
    12/23/07 Chicago Home 35-7 Chicago +9.0 Over 32.0
    10/07/07 Chicago Away 27-20 Chicago +3.0 Over 40.5
    12/31/06 Green Bay Away 26-7 Green Bay +3.5 Under 38.0
    09/10/06 Chicago Away 26-0 Chicago -3.5 Under 34.5
    12/25/05 Chicago Away 24-17 Green Bay +7.0 Over 31.0
    12/04/05 Chicago Home 19-7 Chicago -7.0 Under 32.0
    01/02/05 Green Bay Away 31-14 Green Bay +3.0 Over 34.0
    09/19/04 Chicago Away 21-10 Chicago +9.0 Under 42.0
    12/07/03 Green Bay Home 34-21 Green Bay -7.0 Over 39.0
    09/29/03 Green Bay Away 38-23 Green Bay -4.0 Over 41.5
    12/01/02 Green Bay Home 30-20 Green Bay -9.5 Over 37.5
    10/07/02 Green Bay Away 34-21 Green Bay +1.0 Over 44.5
    12/09/01 Green Bay Home 17-7 Green Bay -4.5 Under 37.0
    11/11/01 Green Bay Away 20-12 Green Bay -3.0 Under 38.0
    12/03/00 Green Bay Away 28-6 Green Bay -2.5 Under 39.5
    10/01/00 Chicago Away 27-24 Chicago +6.0 Over 41.0
    12/05/99 Green Bay Away 35-19 Green Bay -3.5 Over 36.5
    11/07/99 Chicago Away 14-13 Chicago +9.0 Under 40.5
    12/27/98 Green Bay Away 16-13 Chicago +6.5 Under 40.5

    What does that have to do with anything?

  25. #25
    Noleafclover
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    Oh yea, that's always a good Chi/GB prop, thanks for the reminder.

    Gotta disagree on the stats, though I admit I didn't look at turnovers.

    BTW, Jones is playing.

  26. #26
    etothep
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pivotpoint View Post
    @ meader99 - I see Forte having a big edge, not only running, but more so as an all purpose back and receiving.

    Forte 116 carries ~ 533 yards ~ 4.6 ypc ~ 6 TD

    Lacy 112 carries ~ 466 yards ~ 4.0 ypc ~ 3 TD

    Big edge with Forte on receiving yards.

    Forte #107 with 262 yards

    Lacy # 210 with 78 yards

    Jordy Nelson has the best receiver stats on the field tonight @ #13 receiver.

    Bears counter with Jeffrey # 20 and Marshall #24.

    Looking at the last two games, as mentioned, Bears have rumbled for 293 yards on the ground and 4.5 ypc.

    Bears 16 takeaways and Packs #'s ATS not great when they turn the ball over.

    Tremendous respect for Rodgers, but he will have less options minus, Cobb,Jones and Finley.

    McCown has a bunch of options and Bears should (try) minimize Nelson with double teams. Bears receivers have big height advantage against smallish Pack secondary. As mentioned Conte and Wright worry me.

    If the Bears can jump out on top quick with Hester or a deep ball to Marshall or Jeffrey, Pack backers will be looking at down 17 1/2. That's a big if. Gl with your play.
    Not knocking the Bears or Over pick, but I am curious why you're comparing WR to WR & RB to RB?

    Shouldn't you be comparing WRs to DBs & RBs (with OL) to front 7s?

  27. #27
    King tut
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    The under is the play. Lay off the game. You heard it from the King

  28. #28
    Pivotpoint
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    Quote Originally Posted by etothep View Post
    Not knocking the Bears or Over pick, but I am curious why you're comparing WR to WR & RB to RB?

    Shouldn't you be comparing WRs to DBs & RBs (with OL) to front 7s?

    Got off on a tangent with Lacy/Forte comps.

    Believed I mentioned "smallish" pack secondary doesn't match up well with long and tall Bears receivers. Talking Jeffrey and Marshall. Tillman and Woodson are studs in secondary for each team. Really like this kid Jennings. Fast feet and plays the ball.

    Enough talking about this game. Time to play ball.

    Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

  29. #29
    Pivotpoint
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    Quote Originally Posted by King tut View Post
    The under is the play. Lay off the game. You heard it from the King

    Lay off MNF? Surely you jest !

  30. #30
    King tut
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    Pivot You could of had both if you listened to the king. Under and Bears

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