[Potentate]

Colts so clearly the better looking team, but favored by less than a field goal?

Obviously, the biggest bet your entire bankroll set up ever... but what's the scoop?

What do they know that we (I) don't know?

[SteveRyan]

You should pass on this game.

Let's see if you can tell me why.

[Potentate]

You should pass on this game.

Let's see if you can tell me why.

Looking for specific angles here... not more questions

[DR225]

Who knows what that offense is going to look like Without Reggie Wayne.

[SteveRyan]

Who knows what that offense is going to look like Without Reggie Wayne.

Good point and that would be part of it, but there is a betting trend here that is being neutralized.

What is it?

[2daBank]

Good point and that would be part of it, but there is a betting trend here that is being neutralized.

What is it?

not a trend guy,, i have wrote plenty about this gm in my thread tho if anyone cares to hear my thoughts on it, not gonna repeat them tho..

[2daBank]

Looking for specific angles here... not more questions

if you thumb thru the last page or 2 of my thread there some good discussion on this gm and i think plenty of very valid reasons not to unload on indy.. i mean if you feel good about them by all means make a play even tho it hou or nothing to me but dont unload cause this gm gonna be a lot tougher than you may think.. not gonne repeat everything i wrote but should be easy enough to find if interested..

[SteveRyan]

not a trend guy,, i have wrote plenty about this gm in my thread tho if anyone cares to hear my thoughts on it, not gonna repeat them tho..

Ya a trend guy. You didn't mention it in your write-up.

[Potentate]

if you thumb thru the last page or 2 of my thread there some good discussion on this gm and i think plenty of very valid reasons not to unload on indy.. i mean if you feel good about them by all means make a play even tho it hou or nothing to me but dont unload cause this gm gonna be a lot tougher than you may think.. not gonne repeat everything i wrote but should be easy enough to find if interested..

...

there no way i can play indy this week. whether i can make a play on hou has a lot to do w the status of the rbs which is still unclear...i dont think the loss of wayne can be overstated here, he has been luck's security blanket and main man since he been in the league. it been mentioned repeatedly how much i dislike Pep hamilton as OC of this team (maybe foolishly as they are after all winning gms), i think the way to beat hou defense is to spread them out a little and let it fly and while indy has the ability to do that good old pep rather pound they ball into the line for 2 yards a carry on 1st and 2nd down, that all well and good when you had wayne to make plays and move the sticks but he not there now and do we really think stone hands DHB is gonna consistently make those plays? i can pretty much bet he drops half of them! i know your retort on this will be TY and i luv that kid and think he been being severely underused with this OC and while i do think with wayne gone he is gonna start to shine, just not sure he ready to be thrust into role of a guy that can make all those huge 3rd down plays that extend drives and keep this wanna be power run gm moving.. other side i think putting keenum in and now leaving him in may be best move kubiak's dumb ass ever made, ive heard nothing but good things about this kid and i thought he played very solid being thrust into a tough spot at arrowhead, now with a bye and more 1st team reps at home id expect him to be even better, dont think indy corners can bump up on hopkins and johnson the way they bullied den wrs and dared peyton to beat them deep as keenum showed me he can do just that in kc making some nice throws for hopkins to go up and get.. we gonna find out a lot bout indy's corners who played great vs den this week who are in the bottom 10 in yards per completion against.. think we would agree that indy can def be run on, so again it huge to me whether foster or tate (hopefully both) can go and i have not much a clue at this point, then again think hou prob has another guy they could put in behind that scheme and push indy around a little..this no doubt hou or nothing to me, maybe a hou tease but the only thing im certain on right or wrong there no way ill be on indy...

So far, a lot of what I'm seeing, from you included, are concerns about Wayne being out. That's understandable. I do remember watching a couple games where the Colts should have easily won, but Luck was basically betrayed by his receivers, dropping balls all over the place. And you've got to figure that will get worse without Wayne. So, the angle is that the offense is in trouble because Wayne being gone almost fatally hurts Indys offense especially since the they really don't run well, and that's without figuring in the Texans run defense. Whereas, the Texans are at home with a QB that didn't look half bad in his last game who should look better now. Plus, they have a strong running game (if Foster/Tate play) and the Colts run defense is vulnerable.

[Potentate]

Ya a trend guy. You didn't mention it in your write-up.

The only trend I can find is the Colts often struggling in Houston, in general.

[Eddy Munny]

Houston is playing for their season and although their record to date may not reflect it, they are still a talented football team. Keenum potentially injects some life into what had become a stagnant, predictable offense. Couple this with the fact they are playing at home against a team without it's top option at WR and you get the small line.....Nothing fishy or elusive about it imo. I personally expected the line that Vegas gave us. I thought it may get to Indy -3, but the current number is in the same ballpark. I'll be betting the Texans Sunday night without a second thought.

[NittanyLionsFan]

Houston is the better team and will win this game. It's been that way all year, why would it change now?

[NittanyLionsFan]

Being surprised by this line shows that you don't watch sports much at all, or if you do you don't pay much attention.

[Potentate]

Being surprised by this line shows that you don't watch sports much at all, or if you do you don't pay much attention.

Unnecessary and incorrect. And, your responses have been the weakest contributions to this discussion so far. So you obviously don't have anything good to say. Angles and insight or just FSTFU.

[Potentate]

Houston is playing for their season and although their record to date may not reflect it, they are still a talented football team. Keenum potentially injects some life into what had become a stagnant, predictable offense. Couple this with the fact they are playing at home against a team without it's top option at WR and you get the small line.....Nothing fishy or elusive about it imo. I personally expected the line that Vegas gave us. I thought it may get to Indy -3, but the current number is in the same ballpark. I'll be betting the Texans Sunday night without a second thought.

Good point regarding the Texans' motivation. Motivation matters.

[rolltideroll0]

"Reverse trap" play is all it is. Books want to induce the "big boys" to back Houston. At true odds, Colts should be -6 (b/c of the road factor). Big boys will back Houston and get killed this weekend..because Houston LOOKS like a perfect dead cat bounce play.... Colts just off of a big win... Houston had time to adjust on their bye.... playing for their season. Normally, Houston +3 would be the play but Colts actually need to win this game. They are planning playoffs ... want to get best position possible. Final analysis: Looks are deceiving, Colts roll and win by 7 or more.

[2daBank]

"Reverse trap" play is all it is. Books want to induce the "big boys" to back Houston. At true odds, Colts should be -6 (b/c of the road factor). Big boys will back Houston and get killed this weekend..because Houston LOOKS like a perfect dead cat bounce play.... Colts just off of a big win... Houston had time to adjust on their bye.... playing for their season. Normally, Houston +3 would be the play but Colts actually need to win this game. They are planning playoffs ... want to get best position possible. Final analysis: Looks are deceiving, Colts roll and win by 7 or more.

this is by far the stupidest shit i ever heard, in fairness ive heard it before so you aint the 1st but this train of thought is beyond ignorant and if this is how i capped gms i would find a new hobby. maybe colts win, maybe they lose but it has nothing to do with this gibberish.. i got news for you "the big boys" dont bet games based on the shit you saying, they actually cap gms with numbers and angles, make their line and play accordingly.. a line is just a line, and books dont make a line 6 points off like you claiming for a sunday night gm with a ton of action to try and trick anyone cause it would get them buried (of coarse they never gotta worry bout that when they have cats betting gms calling them traps, reverse traps, triple dipper super duper double reverse traps, or any other penetrating nonsense).. if i play hou it will be because of the plenty of reasons i gave as to why i dont feel like indy is nearly the play you seem to think cause you clearly dont understand the nfl..great job, 22 post in and already clear what you say is meaningless..

[2daBank]

Unnecessary and incorrect. And, your responses have been the weakest contributions to this discussion so far. So you obviously don't have anything good to say. Angles and insight or just FSTFU.

just when that was true we have a second contender for not knowing jack shit below..

"Reverse trap" play is all it is. Books want to induce the "big boys" to back Houston. At true odds, Colts should be -6 (b/c of the road factor). Big boys will back Houston and get killed this weekend..because Houston LOOKS like a perfect dead cat bounce play.... Colts just off of a big win... Houston had time to adjust on their bye.... playing for their season. Normally, Houston +3 would be the play but Colts actually need to win this game. They are planning playoffs ... want to get best position possible. Final analysis: Looks are deceiving, Colts roll and win by 7 or more.

way to go, you are now in the running with the biggest dipshit on the forum Nittylionbitch for dumbest post in the thread, congrats, he hard to compete with..

[rolltideroll0]

this is by far the stupidest shit i ever heard, in fairness ive heard it before so you aint the 1st but this train of thought is beyond ignorant and if this is how i capped gms i would find a new hobby. maybe colts win, maybe they lose but it has nothing to do with this gibberish.. i got news for you "the big boys" dont bet games based on the shit you saying, they actually cap gms with numbers and angles, make their line and play accordingly.. a line is just a line, and books dont make a line 6 points off like you claiming for a sunday night gm with a ton of action to try and trick anyone cause it would get them buried (of coarse they never gotta worry bout that when they have cats betting gms calling them traps, reverse traps, triple dipper super duper double reverse traps, or any other penetrating nonsense).. if i play hou it will be because of the plenty of reasons i gave as to why i dont feel like indy is nearly the play you seem to think cause you clearly dont understand the nfl..great job, 22 post in and already clear what you say is meaningless..

What I find comical about your reply is that you actually believe that the statistical, historical, and injury information --that is publicly available-- is what is going to give you an “edge?” What group do you think has the most resources to access and analyze this information? It’s the sportsbooks themselves. That is actually how the line is created. So then if you cap games with “angles and publicly known numbers” (as you suggest) and bet on every one of them. You would end up betting only on favorites and you would also end up broke…eventually. I may be new to SBR but I’ve been doing this for a long time. My first post here was last Sunday night: “don’t fall for the Seattle trap game” where I told everybody how much money the books stood to lose Monday, if Seattle won ATS and suggested that everybody take St.Louis +13.

BTW: I am not your buddy, guy ….lol

[2daBank]

What I find comical about your reply is that you actually believe that the statistical, historical, and injury information --that is publicly available-- is what is going to give you an “edge?” What group do you think has the most resources to access and analyze this information? It’s the sportsbooks themselves. That is actually how the line is created. So then if you cap games with “angles and publicly known numbers” (as you suggest) and bet on every one of them. You would end up betting only on favorites and you would also end up broke…eventually. I may be new to SBR but I’ve been doing this for a long time. My first post here was last Sunday night: “don’t fall for the Seattle trap game” where I told everybody how much money the books stood to lose Monday, if Seattle won ATS and suggested that everybody take St.Louis +13.

BTW: I am not your buddy, guy ….lol

you a fukkin idiot,, i play just as many or more dogs and i cap with stats all day,, maybe you should figure out the right ones to use,, glad you got a gm right, sea wasnt a trap, if you laid double digits in that gm you were a moron, congrats on not being completly stupid.. i have a season long thread full of winners by analyzing numbers creating my own and betting where i see a advatange.. let me know when you can say the same.. damn right you not my buddy, i dont fukk with idiots.

stupid rabbit, traps are for kids..

even more comical after you saying analyzing gms is meaningless (prob cause your math and analytical skills are crap) then you continue on to say "colts are playing for playoff position"..talk about a contradictory bunch of deep fried bs you managed to create in 2 post..

[SteveRyan]

The only trend I can find is the Colts often struggling in Houston, in general.

Nobody has hit the nail on the head here. This is the deal; remember this.

Road favorites after a bye are almost always a solid bet. This is a strong betting trend and you need to look for it from week to week. If you aren't catching this, you are missing out on $$$. Between 2006-2012 it hit ATS 70%. The fav is the better team, who has had time to rest and prepare for the game. The adjustments they make usually give them a strong edge over the home dog.

However, when a road fave after a bye is playing a team WHO ALSO is coming off a bye, then you have a problem. These games are hard to cap because you cannot accurately predict what types of adjustments both teams have made. It's usually a pass. On top of that, it's inner-divisional. Good luck finding an edge here. In Vegas it either opened as a PK or became a PK at some point in most of the books. Pass, pass, pass, pass.

[Eddy Munny]

I think the bye benefits the Texans more than the Colts and here's why.........we know what Andrew Luck is. With Case Keenum however, there is basically only one game Indy's coaches can review in preparation. I expect a few new wrinkles in Houston's offense that accentuate the strengths of Case Keenum. He offers more mobility than his predecessor and can extend plays when the pocket begins to fold. He also seemingly has a greater ability to find bigger plays in the passing game, possibly making DeAndre Hopkins a greater threat moving forward. It looks like Ben Tate will be ready to go and Foster is still questionable so the Texans at least will have some running threat. I also have a hard time buying T.Y. Hilton as a WR1.......and Darius Heyward-Bay's promotion probably means more dropped balls. All things considered, I'm betting the Texans and I can live with the consequences.

[Jikos]

you guys are retards seriously the line is way off and i see every other person overthinking it and outsmarting themselves trying to be sharp, no.... indy is a fuckin good bet they are borderline elite, houston is a bag of potatoes and cant score for shit. indy is the bet, not a lock, but i cant stand seeing half the forum trying to be fancy and avoiding easy spots like this week after week you guys shouldnt be gambling..

[k13]

Houston is the better team.

[k13]

"Reverse trap" play is all it is. Books want to induce the "big boys" to back Houston. At true odds, Colts should be -6 (b/c of the road factor). Big boys will back Houston and get killed this weekend..because Houston LOOKS like a perfect dead cat bounce play.... Colts just off of a big win... Houston had time to adjust on their bye.... playing for their season. Normally, Houston +3 would be the play but Colts actually need to win this game. They are planning playoffs ... want to get best position possible. Final analysis: Looks are deceiving, Colts roll and win by 7 or more.

You have it the other way around, Houston should be -6.

[Eddy Munny]

you guys are retards seriously the line is way off and i see every other person overthinking it and outsmarting themselves trying to be sharp, no.... indy is a fuckin good bet they are borderline elite, houston is a bag of potatoes and cant score for shit. indy is the bet, not a lock, but i cant stand seeing half the forum trying to be fancy and avoiding easy spots like this week after week you guys shouldnt be gambling..

Who's trying to be fancy? The points I've raised are the kinds of things you have to consider when capping this sport. It's not as simple as glancing at two teams' records and then just throwing money down on the "better" team. Most people agree with you and are quick to bet the Colts, don't act like you're in the minority. I'm just offering another perspective or else what use is a message board if we all just agree to agree with one another? I'm sticking to my guns on this one. Texans is probably my favorite NFL play on the card this week.

[SteveRyan]

you guys are retards seriously the line is way off and i see every other person overthinking it and outsmarting themselves trying to be sharp, no.... indy is a fuckin good bet they are borderline elite, houston is a bag of potatoes and cant score for shit. indy is the bet, not a lock, but i cant stand seeing half the forum trying to be fancy and avoiding easy spots like this week after week you guys shouldnt be gambling..

Very typical public opinion. You sound like a spokesperson for all the masses laying cash on Indy this week. You were probably on Cincinnati on Thursday huh?

[Potentate]

Nobody has hit the nail on the head here. This is the deal; remember this.

Road favorites after a bye are almost always a solid bet. This is a strong betting trend and you need to look for it from week to week. If you aren't catching this, you are missing out on $$$. Between 2006-2012 it hit ATS 70%. The fav is the better team, who has had time to rest and prepare for the game. The adjustments they make usually give them a strong edge over the home dog.

However, when a road fave after a bye is playing a team WHO ALSO is coming off a bye, then you have a problem. These games are hard to cap because you cannot accurately predict what types of adjustments both teams have made. It's usually a pass. On top of that, it's inner-divisional. Good luck finding an edge here. In Vegas it either opened as a PK or became a PK at some point in most of the books. Pass, pass, pass, pass.

Great insight, thanks!

[Jikos]

Reasons to back Houston
-they "might" show up
-they are coming off a bye

Reasons to back Indy
-they have been playing well
-they are likely to continue playing well
-their offense is many times better, on paper, and off
-they are coming off a bye

[Potentate]

I think the bye benefits the Texans more than the Colts and here's why.........we know what Andrew Luck is. With Case Keenum however, there is basically only one game Indy's coaches can review in preparation. I expect a few new wrinkles in Houston's offense that accentuate the strengths of Case Keenum. He offers more mobility than his predecessor and can extend plays when the pocket begins to fold. He also seemingly has a greater ability to find bigger plays in the passing game, possibly making DeAndre Hopkins a greater threat moving forward. It looks like Ben Tate will be ready to go and Foster is still questionable so the Texans at least will have some running threat. I also have a hard time buying T.Y. Hilton as a WR1.......and Darius Heyward-Bay's promotion probably means more dropped balls. All things considered, I'm betting the Texans and I can live with the consequences.

Good stuff. And your first sentence there is probably my biggest hang up with this line. We know what Andrew Luck is, and he's really good, and seemingly always getting better. On a totally level playing field it often comes down to quarterback play and Luck is quality. I think Hilton is capable of stepping up in this spot.

[Eddy Munny]

Good stuff. And your first sentence there is probably my biggest hang up with this line. We know what Andrew Luck is, and he's really good, and seemingly always getting better. On a totally level playing field it often comes down to quarterback play and Luck is quality. I think Hilton is capable of stepping up in this spot.

Yes, Luck is good. I wasn't suggesting anything less. But with Keenum getting the start off a bye, there's a good chance for the Texans to catch the Colts off guard early in this game with some offensive twists. If they Texans can get out to an early lead, it bodes well for them, as the players will gain confidence in the new QB and the home crowd will stay interested.

[joco]

indy should be favored by atleast 5....line is off becuz its a trap. stay away or fade the public

[2daBank]

you guys are retards seriously the line is way off and i see every other person overthinking it and outsmarting themselves trying to be sharp, no.... indy is a fuckin good bet they are borderline elite, houston is a bag of potatoes and cant score for shit. indy is the bet, not a lock, but i cant stand seeing half the forum trying to be fancy and avoiding easy spots like this week after week you guys shouldnt be gambling..

i see you continually making shit plays and shocker here ya go again... you could use some fukkin thought in your life you stupid bitch, so sick of retarded monkeys saying "your over thinking it" (2 words by the way you stupid illiterate nig)..learning to think would do you some good but considering who in your avatar i woulndt expect you to have a iq over 60..

[2daBank]

Reasons to back Houston
-they "might" show up
-they are coming off a bye

Reasons to back Indy
-they have been playing well
-they are likely to continue playing well
-their offense is many times better, on paper, and off
-they are coming off a bye

awesome capping...im sure you killing it this nfl season..

[2daBank]

Very typical public opinion. You sound like a spokesperson for all the masses laying cash on Indy this week. You were probably on Cincinnati on Thursday huh?

he a moron, pick a shit losing side and you will find his dumb ass donating his mommies lunch money..