1. #1
    AchillesTG
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    NFL Trends ATS and ML: Good Information to mull over

    I thought Vegas lines were unusually sharp this year, guess I was wrong.

    Home Favorites (ATS) at 57% and Away Dogs at 42%.

    Year in and Year Out, this number has been much closer to 50/50.

    Straight Up Trends (Won Loss Tie)

    Category Record Percent
    Away Teams 35-57-0 38.04%
    Home Teams 57-35-0 61.96%
    Favorites 64-28-0 69.57%
    Dogs 28-64-0 30.43%
    Away Favorites 20-13-0 60.61%
    Away Dogs 15-44-0 25.42%
    Home Favorites 44-15-0 74.58%
    Home Dogs 13-20-0 39.39%
    Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

    Category Record Percent
    Away Teams 39-50-3 43.82%
    Home Teams 50-39-3 56.18%
    Favorites 47-42-3 52.81%
    Dogs 42-47-3 47.19%
    Away Favorites 15-18-0 45.45%
    Away Dogs
    24-32-3 42.86%
    Home Favorites 32-24-3 57.14%
    Home Dogs 18-15-0 54.55%

  2. #2
    arpeggiomeister
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    Thanks for the info. Good stuff. We are midseason so you could see a correction. If that happens then you know to lean more on the dogs.

  3. #3
    AchillesTG
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    Quote Originally Posted by arpeggiomeister View Post
    Thanks for the info. Good stuff. We are midseason so you could see a correction. If that happens then you know to lean more on the dogs.
    You are absolutely correct! The Books will not stand for throwing away an additional 6% to 7%. They will tighten the screws. By the end of the year it should be about 51%/49%.

  4. #4
    percystark
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    home dogs and favs doing great!

  5. #5
    percystark
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    Great info. like the way things are shaping up in week 7 for home teams again

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