1. #36
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    who cares when and where the picks came from? He's thrown 5 picks in 5 games. That is the important stat.
    Again, three came in the first week.

    I'm not saying you can't pay juice on a prop, but I don't see the rationale behind a -190 bet on this particular one. To each his own.

  2. #37
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Again, three came in the first week.

    I'm not saying you can't pay juice on a prop, but I don't see the rationale behind a -190 bet on this particular one. To each his own.
    You can't pick and choose what games you include in your analysis (for the most part). Only exceptions are injuries, WR's not playing, etc

  3. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    You can't pick and choose what games you include in your analysis (for the most part). Only exceptions are injuries, WR's not playing, etc
    So you're saying quantity is more important than how often it's occurred, given you're betting on whether or not he's throwing one tonight and not how many he's throwing?

  4. #39
    BroncosBettor
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    Best of luck man. 5 receptions is a lot for a running back and a running back who will likely be sharing the field. Just my opinion.

  5. #40
    The Giant
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    I like this play.

    I've used Danny Woodhead a few weeks in fantasy daily football, and the guy is legit.

    I just followed on this prop, at -135. I can't remember the last time I played a prop, hopefully this hits. Good luck.

  6. #41
    Fernburn74
    2018-2019 season
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    I see this prop local book at 5.5 +115

  7. #42
    Fred The Hammer
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    I have Woodhead Over 5 catches (-130) for $200 myself. Was going to do another Pop the Prop thread but saw this first.....11-6 this year and 5-1 with catch props. Haven't read this whole thread but my Colts have a legit secondary and Bethea will shadow Gates leaving DW for a bunch of dump offs. He's already caught 29 in their last 4 games (over 7 per game). Imo the only way this one loses is if Indy holds the ball for 8 minutes drives every time they get the ball but pretty unlikely he only gets 4 or less w/Indy's secondary against mediocre WRs

  8. #43
    EaglesPhan36
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  9. #44
    TonyTall
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    absolute no play. matthews and him will split time. you must feel that the chargers will fall behind by a couple scores, cause if they are leading this game they will run with mathews 15+ times

    6 to win, no thanks

  10. #45
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    So you're saying quantity is more important than how often it's occurred, given you're betting on whether or not he's throwing one tonight and not how many he's throwing?
    yes, how often it occurred isn't important

  11. #46
    pavyracer
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    I have longest TD scored longer than 48.5 yards for -105.

  12. #47
    Fred The Hammer
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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTall View Post
    absolute no play. matthews and him will split time. you must feel that the chargers will fall behind by a couple scores, cause if they are leading this game they will run with mathews 15+ times

    6 to win, no thanks
    Makes sense that if you like DW^5 then you like Indy to lead and/or win. Matthews got dinged up last week and he sucks anyway....they'll try to run him some but Rivers is their only chance.

  13. #48
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    yes, how often it occurred isn't important
    Even though I said I was done I couldn't help but think out the simple math while I was out playing tennis with the woman. I don't have a financial analysis degree like you do .... so bear with me pal.

    Let's say your job that you want to quit to fund your living with this prop pays around 1K a week. Based on my non-financial degree math my brain tells me you'd be down (betting 1K a game on this prop) around $5,100 bucks betting this over Rivers last 21 games at 1K a pop at -190 for Rivers to throw a pick.

    So I guess we're just stuck with my simple math and your "+ev" prop. Fortunately if you still live with your parents you can indeed quit your job.

    Good night

  14. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    yes, how often it occurred isn't important
    I guess I don't follow.

    Good luck though TP.

  15. #50
    broadway6
    on to the next one
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    this thread made me chuckle...good night


  16. #51
    face
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    he loves keenan allen tonight
    no love for woodhead but maybe he catches 2 or more

  17. #52
    face
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    throw it to fukkin woodhead!

  18. #53
    BigDeem5
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    3 catches. Need Indy to somehow get up a TD, when Chargers throw, Matthews heads to bench

  19. #54
    EaglesPhan36
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    Yeah playing with a lead tonight didn't help much, but if the Colts can score here to keep it close - maybe we can squeak out a push.

  20. #55
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    Even though I said I was done I couldn't help but think out the simple math while I was out playing tennis with the woman. I don't have a financial analysis degree like you do .... so bear with me pal.

    Let's say your job that you want to quit to fund your living with this prop pays around 1K a week. Based on my non-financial degree math my brain tells me you'd be down (betting 1K a game on this prop) around $5,100 bucks betting this over Rivers last 21 games at 1K a pop at -190 for Rivers to throw a pick.

    So I guess we're just stuck with my simple math and your "+ev" prop. Fortunately if you still live with your parents you can indeed quit your job.

    Good night

    you square ass idiot, that isn't how you price a prop bet. Don't quit your fuggin day job
    Points Awarded:

    tatddy gave TPowell 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  21. #56
    Drew0585
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    Woodhead at 73 total yards. I have over 74.5 yards. Come on!!!

  22. #57
    The Giant
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    Very nice!



    Now let's get this to overtime and get ourselves a win.

  23. #58
    EaglesPhan36
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    Your yardage props cashed. Pushed on the receptions. I'll be okay with that. Rooting for Luck to take it down for a TD and some late passing or OT ...

  24. #59
    firedawg
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  25. #60
    Drew0585
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  26. #61
    BigDeem5
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    SDG has had no penalties or sacks, b/c when they're behind they dump to woodhead

  27. #62
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    you square ass idiot, that isn't how you price a prop bet. Don't quit your fuggin day job
    Had to send you a pt for making yourself look like a clown all thread. Night.
    Points Awarded:

    TPowell gave tatddy 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  28. #63
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDeem5 View Post
    SDG has had no penalties or sacks, b/c when they're behind they dump to woodhead

    have a feeling they dump it off again if they get the ball back.

  29. #64
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    Had to send you a pt for making yourself look like a clown all thread. Night.

    clueless pal, here's a couple back

  30. #65
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    you square ass idiot, that isn't how you price a prop bet. Don't quit your fuggin day job
    I get more confused by the post.

    What is he saying that is wrong?

  31. #66
    The Giant
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    We need a third down dump off pass right here.

  32. #67
    BigDeem5
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    fuking matthews looks great

  33. #68
    The Giant
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    That huge run by Matthews killed us.

  34. #69
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    clueless pal, here's a couple back
    Thanks. Small profit. And for the record I was rooting for both guys in this thread to win. Wasn't I who started the attacks.

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