1. #1
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    MobFade Week 6 Picks

    2013: 33-31, -.5 Units

    Week 5
    : 4-7, -4 Units
    Week 4
    : 7-6, -1 Unit
    Week 3: 8-6, +3 Units
    Week 2: 7-5, +2 Units
    Week 1: 7-7, -.5 Units

    Got buried last week and been getting crushed on my 2 Unit plays for a couple weeks. Probably just flat bet this week and play a bunch of teasers. Leans:


    DET @ CLE+3

    Assuming it gets to +3, if not then ML and teasers. CJ hobbled changes the face of this offense and he's going against Haden this week. Browns front 7 should be back to 100% as it sounds like Sheard and Bryant will go. Lions haven't been giving up a ton of sacks but I would think that has less to do with protection and more to do with Reggie Bush. CLE has been average defending RB's in the pass game so the Lions will have that but I don't think he'll find much room running the ball. Other side CLE is getting Shawn Lauvao back which normally wouldn't be a big deal but his replacement is maybe the worst OG in football. It all comes down to Weeden and he now has the weapons to do it. In the end this feels like a lower-scoring game and the under getting hammered down from 46 to 43.5 shows that. Going to let money keep coming in on DET and see where Bovada posts this.
    PIT @ NYJ UNDER 41

    This is another game that's in between 2.5 and 3 at the books and the total right now is at 41. I would lean slightly PIT here off the bye against the Jets on a short week. Geno Smith has played 1 good game in his career and it happened to be just a couple days ago so that's fresh in everyone's mind. Going against Dick Lebeau still means something IMO, though the PIT D is a far cry from what it used to be. NYJ also have no weapons and more importantly for the under, no one to stretch the field. Same goes for PIT when Ben has to play behind his makeshift line. NYJ D-line is going to dominate the line of scrimmage here with Levi Brown in his first week in a Steeler jersey only being a marginal upgrade at LT for now. Cromartie injury hasn't been fully reported but it sounds like PIT should get a little breathing room. Maybe my favorite angle on the under is that neither defense has been generating turnovers, which should make for a true field-position battle with few gifted short fields. Line went as high as 41.5 after opening at 40.5 but I don't think it's too risky to let it try to get back up as all books are at 41 right now.

    STL @ HOU (TEASE)

    Pretty straightforward teasing HOU across the 7 and the 3 to land around -1.5 or -2.5. Books are pretty handcuffed here and even with the questions for HOU at QB they are a run-first, defensive-minded team that just needs someone back there to manage the game. Schaub, Yates, who cares. STL can be had on the ground and through the air. They also field maybe the only NFL QB who is more physically limited than Schaub in Bradford. STL's Offense consists of only the dump-off pass, and there is not much of a chance that either the run game or deep ball get going against HOU.

    GB @ BAL

    No lean here. Gun to my head GB-2.5 but I am of the opinion that this defense is different without Clay Matthews and BAL is shoring up their offense. It might not manifest itself this week, but adding Monroe should pay huge dividends for this offense, as well as getting someone even as marginal as Jacoby Jones back with Marlon Brown developing somewhat. I would really lean OVER here, but 48 seems like a lot with a chance of rain and BAL in the mix.

    CIN (TEASE?) @ BUF UNDER??

    BUF was going to be a great play here until EJ got hurt. Now I really don't know what to make of it as -6.5 is a better value than a tease if it's available, but I wouldn't want to lay 6.5 with CIN on the road with a small chance of rain. Leon Hall coming back for the Bengals but Michael Johnson still questionable. Bills getting Byrd AND Gilmore back. Sounds like a recipe for the Under, but 41.5 is pretty low with some of the playmakers both teams have out there. The Bills Special Teams is also terrible and a backup QB coming in doesn't necessarily make for a low-scoring game if he starts throwing a bunch of picks to shorten the field. Prudent thing is to stay away until we get some favorable line movement or more news.

  2. #2
    Speedy88
    Speedy88's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-11
    Posts: 11,717
    Betpoints: 1636

    Nice write-ups as always Mob. Agreed on the Browns. Lions are always a nice fade on the road, especially if Calvin is out. Stafford and that offense just isn't right without him. Even if he does play banged up, Hayden should be able to slow him down. I'm not a huge fan of totals, but I'd lean under on both Steelers/Jets and Bengals/Bills.

    I'm tempted to play Steelers as a dog. Geno and the Jets win one game on primetime and it seems like everyone jumps on the bandwagon. Seems like a good time to fade the Jets, especially with Pitt coming off a bye. If Pit can stop the run, I don't see how the Jets move the ball on offense.

    Overall a tough looking card this week. A lot of big spreads. I'm also looking at NE and TB. Thoughts on those games?

  3. #3
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    CAR+3 @ MIN UNDER??

    Again, assuming this gets to +3, otherwise maybe buy it there or Teasers and ML. I like this spot a lot and think we're getting plenty of value after last week's results. Carolina's offense does scare me, but the Vikings haven't failed to give up tons of points at every opportunity. Carolina doesn't have anything outside of AP to worry about now with Felton back blocking for him, but I still maintain that their Front 7 is Top 5 in this league. Cassell is not going to somehow make this team good as he's a limited QB with no weapons. Public seems to be leaning on MIN, so going to hold off and see if this gets to +3.

    PHI @ TB+3

    Looks like it could get to 3 otherwise buy it, Teasers, or ML depending on how close it gets. Public leaning hard on PHI so we can afford to wait it out. Vick looked like a slam-dunk to not suit up just a few days ago but now it's not so certain. It sounds like a smoke-screen so we'll cap under that assumption. TB has been getting a ton of bad press with the messy Freeman departure, so their excellent defense has gone under the radar. I'm not a Glennon fan, but this doesn't figure to be a shoot-out if he's going against Foles who doesn't add the third dimension that Vick does. TB should be able to slow this down, feed Doug Martin, and pick apart the PHI secondary like every other QB in the league.

    OAK @ KC

    I don't like either side unless we can get OAK at a full 10, or KC in a tease to -2.5. KC's defense can be had on the ground and I think the read-option is how you can do it especially with Justin Houston questionable. Also OAK's Run D has been average, which is where KC excels. Getting double-digits with a total as low as 41 is always good value, and KC isn't the kind of team that is going to blow it up through the air. I would lean OAK here, but it could go either way depending on how this line moves.

    TEN+14 @ SEA

    I'm not going to bet against the Seahawks at home, but TEN isn't such a bad team that they need to be spotted 2 TD's. Ryan Fitzpatrick was terrible last week, but he's not a bad backup. Seattle is still missing at least both of their starting Tackles, if not their All-Pro Center as well for a third straight week. Note the lean, but I'm staying away from this.

    JAX @ DEN

    Flip a coin.

  4. #4
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    Nice write-ups as always Mob. Agreed on the Browns. Lions are always a nice fade on the road, especially if Calvin is out. Stafford and that offense just isn't right without him. Even if he does play banged up, Hayden should be able to slow him down. I'm not a huge fan of totals, but I'd lean under on both Steelers/Jets and Bengals/Bills.

    I'm tempted to play Steelers as a dog. Geno and the Jets win one game on primetime and it seems like everyone jumps on the bandwagon. Seems like a good time to fade the Jets, especially with Pitt coming off a bye. If Pit can stop the run, I don't see how the Jets move the ball on offense.

    Overall a tough looking card this week. A lot of big spreads. I'm also looking at NE and TB. Thoughts on those games?
    Thanks man. TB I like, and in the NO/NE game I think I'm going to play NO in a tease for the same reason I played NE in a tease at ATL a few weeks ago.

    NO (TEASE) @ NE

    I trust that Brees will keep this within a TD. Gronk coming back but who knows where he'll be physically and I think his forearm is more of a concern than has been let on otherwise he would have been back sooner. Both teams been under-performing in the Red Zone and been playing good D. These teams seem identical to me right now, so I think I'll take the option where I get more than a TD with one of them. Also Wilfork loss is big and that could open up things for Pierre Thomas if NO chooses to get that going.
    Last edited by MobFade; 10-11-13 at 05:13 AM.

  5. #5
    slacker00
    slacker00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-06-05
    Posts: 12,262
    Betpoints: 15653

    Mob, what do you think about teasing BAL to +8 1/2 and the over to 42?

  6. #6
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    ARI+11 @ SF

    I feel like it wasn't too long ago that everyone was down on the 9ers after getting whomped by SEA and IND in consecutive weeks. Well all-aboard yet again, but they still have some lingering issues that could manifest themselves here. Kapernick has no WR's to throw to and their Defense is pretty average without Aldon Smith or healthy NFL-caliber CB's. The Cardinals have pretty consistently burned me this year, but I'll take another shot betting that their defense can make up for the comedy of errors that is their offense. More than 10.5 points in a game with a total as low as 41 is always nice.

    WAS @ DAL??

    Good offenses meet bad defenses with a dash of bad special teams sounds like an Over to me ... so why is this line coming down from 53? Also, why don't I really want to bet DAL here? Anthony Spencer is out. WAS coming off a bye means RG3 should be a little healthier and maybe able to threaten with the read-option. That's the element that is missing from the WAS offense. If/when RG3 can tuck it and run, everything will open back up for Alfred Morris. Defense is another story and they look just plain bad out there while DAL proved last week that they can score at will even against competent defenses. The Redskins right now are like the Eagles last year. Everyone wants to be the first one to cash a WAS ticket to feel smart, but until I see RG3 run I can't bet these clowns. That said, DAL isn't exactly a good team but they can score, so again the Over looks pretty good. The problem we might have is that both teams should be able to run the ball against the other, which is what DAL did to STL. They hung 31 because Murray went off for about 170 on the ground, but I see too many instances where this is a run-first game. This could go either way during the week so I'm gonna keep thinking about this one and see where the line goes.

    IND-1.5 @ SD

    The demise of 2013 Phillip Rivers is inevitable. He had been playing at an unbelievable level until he ran into that buzzsaw in .... Oakland? I didn't want to bet Oakland last week because I didn't think they were a good enough team to be a live dog, but fade away this week. Dunlap and Fluker are both questionable but will probably both play, but I swear to God this is still one of the worst lines in the NFL and Rivers has no run game and no weapons. Yet somehow this offense has been performing like the best pass attack besides Denver in the NFL? I don't buy it. I also don't see this getting any better, so booking it now:

    IND-1.5-110 | BET DSI | 1 UNIT
    Last edited by MobFade; 10-11-13 at 11:32 PM.

  7. #7
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Mob, what do you think about teasing BAL to +8 1/2 and the over to 42?
    I don't think BAL in a tease is bad because you're crossing all the right numbers, but I can definitely see GB blowing them out whereas I can't really see BAL doing the same. If you're going to play it I'd pair it with another side. Playing totals in teasers dilutes the value of the tease significantly. I'd look to pair it with NO, HOU, CIN, CAR, TB, CLE, or PIT. Roughly in that order is how I would do it.

  8. #8
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    To recap, the teaser legs I like a lot are NO and HOU. Will probably add CIN and whichever of CLE, TB, and CAR don't get to +3. KC, PIT, and BAL are also possibilities. I'm thinking about playing these in like round-robin style teasers for maybe .1 to .2 units each. Would be like 20 teasers and add up to 2 - 4 units total which is about right. This will reduce week-to-week variance and allow me to get them all in, but I might be giving up a leg or two that moves off a tease-able number because I waited too long. I'll try it this week and see how I like it.

    Adding:

    ARI+10.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

    Can't see this getting any better either as we get close to game day and I like having the hook on the 10.

  9. #9
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    I flipped a coin and it came up Jaguars:

    JAX+27.5-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

    CAN the Broncos beat the Jaguars by 4 TD's? Yes. Will they leave Peyton Manning in there long enough for us to find out? I doubt it. Denver could be up 40 points going into the 4th quarter and we'd still be live here even as all their starters hit the bench. 27.5 was as good as I could find and it's just not worth 10 cents to buy to the full 4 TD's. The hook on 3 TD's and 2 FG's was enough for me.

  10. #10
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 88,963
    Betpoints: 78

    as much as i dog the chargers think rivers be gm to shoot it out in this one,, maybe some regression coming to their passing gm, i dunno, maybe not, maybe the coach is competent and far as weapons i def was on that train of thought but i really like keenan allen and he getting more involved every week, vincent brown has potential, and gates playing like a-rod hooked him up..most importantly to me is while indys pass d doesnt rank all that bad look at the list of qbs they have seen, pryor, tannenhill, gabbert, keapernick, wilson. i like few of those guys but lets be fair they not in rivers league as pure passers as of yet..dont get me wrong i think indy scores at will as well cause sd d is putrid, and in the end if it close i certainly cant argue trusting Luck over Rivers as the kid wins gms while we know what rivers choking ass does more times than not...think i like the over better than a side, and man everyone gonna be chasing with indy which scares me, of coarse they all prob be on the over as well..


    like most your gms, already bet panthers and browns mls.

    hou a lead pipe lock as a teaser partner, if kubiak would promise they wouldnt throw a pass id lay the points, feels like one of those games where the decent team playing like shit comes home and kicks the crap out of a scrub lambs team.. cincy prob close but still dont trust them on the road, team be sb contenders with a better qb, think their d can win this one themselves against a practice squad qb.

    cant decided if i rather play zona or under? prob go hand in hand, if palmer turns it over for scores they both prob screwed..

    lean titans also but dont wanna fade sea at home,,under seems worth looking at...like a lot of unders this week but they all in that 41 range which for the most part the new 37 these days and that number scares me as gms slip over it so easily..

    tb or nothing, not sure which? seriously crappy offense and really good d vs a decent offense and crappy d, id lean good d with a extra week and no vick means less explosive plays and not sure phi can continually drive the field on bucs w/o making mistakes..

    think it a no brainer to take the points with the skins..id imagine this comes down to a 1 score gm way more times than not..

  11. #11
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    Alright some more stuff coming out about Gronk being a true game-time decision. WagerWeb just had this line sitting there so I'm going to take it now. NO still also a teaser leg:

    NO+3-120 | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT

  12. #12
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    as much as i dog the chargers think rivers be gm to shoot it out in this one,, maybe some regression coming to their passing gm, i dunno, maybe not, maybe the coach is competent and far as weapons i def was on that train of thought but i really like keenan allen and he getting more involved every week, vincent brown has potential, and gates playing like a-rod hooked him up..most importantly to me is while indys pass d doesnt rank all that bad look at the list of qbs they have seen, pryor, tannenhill, gabbert, keapernick, wilson. i like few of those guys but lets be fair they not in rivers league as pure passers as of yet..dont get me wrong i think indy scores at will as well cause sd d is putrid, and in the end if it close i certainly cant argue trusting Luck over Rivers as the kid wins gms while we know what rivers choking ass does more times than not...think i like the over better than a side, and man everyone gonna be chasing with indy which scares me, of coarse they all prob be on the over as well..


    like most your gms, already bet panthers and browns mls.

    hou a lead pipe lock as a teaser partner, if kubiak would promise they wouldnt throw a pass id lay the points, feels like one of those games where the decent team playing like shit comes home and kicks the crap out of a scrub lambs team.. cincy prob close but still dont trust them on the road, team be sb contenders with a better qb, think their d can win this one themselves against a practice squad qb.

    cant decided if i rather play zona or under? prob go hand in hand, if palmer turns it over for scores they both prob screwed..

    lean titans also but dont wanna fade sea at home,,under seems worth looking at...like a lot of unders this week but they all in that 41 range which for the most part the new 37 these days and that number scares me as gms slip over it so easily..

    tb or nothing, not sure which? seriously crappy offense and really good d vs a decent offense and crappy d, id lean good d with a extra week and no vick means less explosive plays and not sure phi can continually drive the field on bucs w/o making mistakes..

    think it a no brainer to take the points with the skins..id imagine this comes down to a 1 score gm way more times than not..
    We'll see about the Chargers. Football Outsiders has them as the #2 passing offense and #3 overall offense but I don't see it on their roster. Keenan Allen is pretty good but still a rookie. Vincent Brown hasn't looked good IMO and most of their Red Zone production was going through Eddie Royal. Ryan Mathews didn't add much but they don't even have the threat of a run game now. No doubt they could burn me again as they've done 2 of the last 3 weeks, but I think IND is good enough to not let this farce continue.

    I'm going to have to go read your Skins writeup. The trends are pretty much a push with a slight DAL lean and as much as I know RG3 will rebound at some point, I would like to first see that he's healthy AND that the Skins will let him run with the ball.

  13. #13
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 88,963
    Betpoints: 78

    havnt played skins yet..ill get to it at some point.. think it might be his choice not to be running but honestly doesnt matter, garcon can kill this secondary and moss been killing them for years. gm gonna be tight, boys just not that much better than skins and i suspect it comes down to last possession... gm is almost always close, think dal playing w den made this line at least 2 points higher than it should be, 3.5 seems way more right..

  14. #14
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    CAR ML+120 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

    From RotoWorld "A source close to Adrian Peterson confirmed to Profootballtalk that Peterson is dealing with a "tragic" personal situation in Sioux Falls, South Dakota." Looks like BookMaker took this line down? Or maybe I'm just crazy but there was an allusion to the fact that he might not play Sunday. Jumping on this ML now in case he doesn't play but we can always add more later.

  15. #15
    arpeggiomeister
    arpeggiomeister's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-23-08
    Posts: 1,015
    Betpoints: 2918

    Great stuff. I am on the Saints as well (10 point teaser). I did grab the Seahawks at -3.5, and the Bears over which covered last night.

    I agree the Titans should not be 14 point underdogs but when I look at what the Seahawks did to the 49ers I would rather tease them just in case it is a blow out. Hope I made the right decision.

    I like your insights. Keep it up and you will right the ship.

  16. #16
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    Quote Originally Posted by arpeggiomeister View Post
    Great stuff. I am on the Saints as well (10 point teaser). I did grab the Seahawks at -3.5, and the Bears over which covered last night.

    I agree the Titans should not be 14 point underdogs but when I look at what the Seahawks did to the 49ers I would rather tease them just in case it is a blow out. Hope I made the right decision.

    I like your insights. Keep it up and you will right the ship.
    Saints were a good team in a 10 point tease crossing 3, 7, and 10. The hook on the Hawks would worry me at -3.5 but this game does feel like it has the makings of a Seattle blow-out being back at home after 2 tough games on the road.

  17. #17
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    double post

  18. #18
    FlaxMartin
    FlaxMartin's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-13-10
    Posts: 2,148
    Betpoints: 5146

    Adrian Peterson is expected to play, and the son who lives with him, Adrian Jr, is healthy.

  19. #19
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    Quote Originally Posted by FlaxMartin View Post
    Adrian Peterson is expected to play, and the son who lives with him, Adrian Jr, is healthy.
    Yeah, I'm getting the sense that he wasn't very close to the kid that passed away.

    TopBet is where I usually do my teasers because they offer 2-Teamers at -110 and they also don't charge extra for juiced numbers. For instance, every other book might have a line at +2.5-110, and they and usually Bovada will be at +3-120 as these are more "square" books where people will lay -3 when -2.5 is available. Teasing these juiced lines will get you to +9 on a 6 point tease, but still only cost -110. Pretty sweet.

    2-TM/6-PT TEASE | -110 | TOP BET
    CLE+9/TB+9 | 1 UNIT
    CAR+8.5/HOU-1.5 | 1 UNIT

  20. #20
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 88,963
    Betpoints: 78

    5D does them even money mob, just have to get around some of their teaser protected numbers. sometimes i can others i cant and gotta go with -110 on BOL..

  21. #21
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    Adding:

    TB+3-110 | BOVADA | 1 UNIT

    2-TM/6-PT TEASE | -110 | TOP BET
    CLE+8.5/KC-1.5 | 1 UNIT

  22. #22
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    Yeah I forget why I couldn't get any money on there and maybe I just didn't try hard enough, but I need to look into that again.

    PIT/NYJ UNDER 41.0-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

  23. #23
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    Final Card. All plays 1 Unit:

    JAX+27.5-110
    TB+3-110
    ARI+10.5-110
    IND-1.5-110
    NO+3-120
    CAR ML+120

    NYJ/PIT UNDER 41-110

    2-TM/6-PT TEASE:
    CLE+9/TB+9
    CLE+8.5/KC-1.5
    CAR+8.5/HOU-1.5

    GL everyone

  24. #24
    MobFade
    MobFade's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-12
    Posts: 677
    Betpoints: 987

    I still cannot believe that today resulted in going 3-5-1. Lost 3/5 teaser legs that killed all 3 teasers. TB and CLE in the morning games looked like they had a shot at winning before getting outscored in the second half a combined 41-3. ARI blows the cover by 1.5 and NO pushes on a TD w/ 5 seconds left. I usually don't complain about losing days but I feel like almost all the games played out exactly like I thought they would, and I'm still down 2 units.

    I'm tempted to add a unit to IND just to try for the push.

Top