1. #1
    Run the Table
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    NFL Quick Picks for Week 6: Largest Spread in History, and Other Matchups

    New York Giants @ Chicago Bears

    TABLE TALK
    If the Giants are going to win this week, it will have to be on the arm of Eli. Chicago has a top 10 run defense at home, and the Giants have one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL. Chicago, on the other hand, is averaging 4.6 yards per rush on offense and should have a favorable match up against a weak road rushing defense from the Giants. Chicago is 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants. I think Chicago wins, but I see New York getting the cover.

    RUN THE TABLE WITH
    New York Giants points


    Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens

    TABLE TALK
    Green Bay still has their prototypical high-powered offense, averaging 8 yards per pass and 5 yards per rush. Baltimore has been strong on defense at home in their two games this season, averaging 182 passing yards allowed and 80 rushing yards. Baltimore is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home. Green Bay is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore. However, Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. I'll take the home points.

    RUN THE TABLE WITH
    Baltimore Ravens points


    Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

    TABLE TALK
    Buffalo owns the series with Cincinnati, having won 8 of the last 9. We have a couple of head-to-head comparisons for this matchup. Buffalo opened the season with a loss at home to New England 21-23, while Cincinnati just beat New England at home 13-6. Both teams have also played, and lost, at Cleveland this season. Buffalo's strong rushing game will be put to the test. They are currently averaging 4.3 yards per rush, but Cincy is only allowing 85 rushing yards per game on the road. This is too many points to pass up at home for Buffalo.

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    Buffalo Bills points


    Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns

    TABLE TALK
    Matthew Stafford has been strong on the road this season, averaging 291 passing yards per game. Cleveland, on the other hand, has a top 10 pass defense at home, only allowing 215 yards. We have one comparable matchup with Minnesota, as Detroit won at home during week one 34-24 and Cleveland won on the road in week three 31-27. Cleveland has done well since trading Trent Richardson, and Detroit*is 1-5 SU & ATS in its last 6 games on the road. I don't like this game, but if forced I would take the points for Cleveland.

    RUN THE TABLE WITH
    Cleveland Browns points


    St Louis Rams @ Houston Texans

    TABLE TALK
    Neither team has a marquee win this season, and both have struggled mightily. In terms of comparable match ups, the Rams lost at home to the 49ers in week four 35-11 while Houston was blown out on the road last week 34-3. Houston has been pitiful on defense, allowing one point for every 9.4 yards. On the flip side, the Texans are averaging a very high 21 yards per point on offense. In their two games at home, Houston ranks in the top 10 offensively for average passing and rushing yards. The rams are historically weak on the road, and Houston looks like they have something going when playing at home, so my money's on the Texans.

    RUN THE TABLE WITH
    Houston Texans points


    Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

    TABLE TALK
    Who would have thought that the Chiefs would be undefeated in week 6? Andy Reid is making quick work in KC, and Alex Smith is acting as a serviceable play caller. We have a comparable matchup with Jacksonville, as both teams easily beat the Jaguars (as has happened in every other matchup with Jacksonville). I'm not comfortable with the line though, so I will take the points for Oakland. Terrelle Pryor is performing well and should at least keep the Raiders in the game.

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    Oakland Raiders points


    Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings

    TABLE TALK
    With Minnesota playing QB musical chairs, their season is up in the air. Josh Freeman was signed, and will eventually start, but it probably won't happen this week. In terms of comparable match ups, both teams have beat the Steelers at home. Adrian Peterson is off to a good start, but not quite on that 2,500 yard pace that we heard so much about before the season started. Minnesota ranks in the top 10 in rushing, averaging 126 yards per game. They have been even stronger at home, averaging 139 rushing yards per game. Also, Minnesota is coming off a bye week and should be ready to play. With both teams struggling, I'm going with the home team. Not much faith though.

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    Minnesota Vikings ML


    Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets

    TABLE TALK
    Let's hope the Steelers found their mojo in the bye week. They have been awful this season, but the Jets and Geno Smith have been just good enough to come into week 6 with a winning record. For comparables, both teams have lost to Tennessee this season. Pittsburgh, normally a stalwart defense, is -11 on turnover margin with no takeaways this season. I'm going with the home team money.

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    New York Jets ML


    Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    TABLE TALK
    The Eagles have a much better offense than the Bucs, averaging 8.3/5.6 in yards per pass and rush respectively. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is only averaging 5.1/3.6. Tampa Bay may have a chance if they can stop the run.*Philadelphia is #1 in rushing yards per game on the road, while Tampa Bay is #4 in rushing defense at home.*Philadelphia is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road.*Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home. I lean towards the Eagles here.

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    Philadelphia Eagles ML


    Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos

    TABLE TALK
    The largest point spread in NFL history was set for this game. It has recently dropped to -26.5, but it's still an impressive number. Denver continued their hot start with an impressive, last minute win against the Dallas Cowboys last week. Peyton Manning is lighting the world on fire, leading the league with 1,884 yards passing. The Broncos are the #1 passing team in the league, averaging 374 yards per game, with an even more impressive 383 yards per game at home. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is in the bottom 5 offensively for passing and rushing. This line is uncharted territory, but I can't bet against Peyton Manning here.

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    Denver Broncos points


    Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks

    TABLE TALK
    Two touchdowns is a big line for Seattle to overcome, even at home. Tennessee lost on the road to Houston earlier in the year, so they aren't exactly a challenge. Especially since Seattle won on the road in Houston a few weeks ago. However, the Titans aren't exactly a pushover with Chris Johnson in the backfield. They have to go without their primary signal caller again, so this won't help them. With Seattle's stout defense, and their strong running game, I believe they can cover at home.

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    Seattle Seahawks points


    New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots

    TABLE TALK
    Could this be a preview of the Super Bowl? Probably not, but these are two strong teams. New Orleans is a pass happy team, and New England is a well-balanced offensive machine. For comparable match ups, both teams have handled the Buccaneers and the Falcons. I think the Patriots' pass defense may make the difference here, as long as they don't get torched like the Falcons did a few weeks ago.*New England is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home.*New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road, but Gillette Stadium holds too much sway in this decision.

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    New England Patriots ML


    Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

    TABLE TALK
    The 49ers might be back to the team we remember. They have two strong wins over the last few weeks against teams that they should have easily beat. Arizona is an average team who has three average wins so far. Their offense is nothing to get excited about, with 6.2/3.5 yards per pass and rush, respectively. For a comparable match up, both teams have played the Rams on the road. Arizona lost 27-24, while San Francisco won easily 35-11. The line continues to increase (now in the double digits), but I think the 49ers can cover.*San Francisco is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home.

    RUN THE TABLE WITH
    San Francisco 49ers points


    Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

    TABLE TALK
    This NFC East match up should be exciting. Dallas is still trying to prove they are a good team, and Washington is just trying to win. The Redskins won both meetings last season, so the Cowboys will definitely want revenge. Dallas has the league's worst home passing defense (346 ypg), but they conversely have the league's best home rushing defense (63 ypg). Dallas also has a top 10 home passing offense, while Washington has one of the worst road passing offenses.*Washington is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games, but*Dallas is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Washington. My money is on Dallas for the win.

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    Dallas Cowboys ML


    Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers

    TABLE TALK
    Having just lost at Oakland, San Diego has shown a total lack of improvement from last year. They also lost to Houston in week 1, and we have recently seen*how bad the Texans really are this season. Indianapolis, on the other hand, pulled off an impressive win against Seattle last week. They also beat Oakland at home in week 1 (although they didn't win by much), for a comparable matchup with San Diego. Philip Rivers had another high-powered performance last week, completing 35 of 48 for 411 yards, but tarnished it with 3 interceptions. Indy is in the top 5 for turnover margin with a +6 so far this season. My money is on the Colts.

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    Indianapolis Colts ML

  2. #2
    JM17
    JM17's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-19-13
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    Tennessee barely lost to Houston in overtime you tard.

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