[MobFade]

2013: 29-24, +3.5 Units

Week 4: 7-6, -1 Unit
Week 3: 8-6, +3 Units
Week 2: 7-5, +2 Units
Week 1: 7-7, -.5 Units

Power Rankings

Rough week with both of my 2 unit plays losing. Underlined are some early leans this week, will post write-ups as they get done:

BUF@CLE
JAX@STL
NO@CHI
PHI@NYG
SEA@IND
BAL@MIA
NE@CIN
KC@TEN
DET@GB
CAR@ARI
DEN@DAL
HOU@SF
SD@OAK
NYJ@ATL

[BIGSACK]

Don't bet on the jags, with all the rest and desperation, the rams could easily win by 2 td +

[Eddy Munny]

I think I like the Houston Texan +6.5 the most out of the entire NFL card. It seems too many points for the Niners to lay considering they don't have the vertical threat to exploit Houston's biggest weakness, the secondary. The Texans match up well here.

[MobFade]

I think I like the Houston Texan +6.5 the most out of the entire NFL card. It seems too many points for the Niners to lay considering they don't have the vertical threat to exploit Houston's biggest weakness, the secondary. The Texans match up well here.

I agree. SF and HOU are about equal IMO so anything over 3 maybe 3.5 is too many here.

[MobFade]

DEN-7-115 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

Just in case this goes to more of a teaser-protect line, which I'm sure I'll add some of as the week goes on. With a total around 56 and climbing, laying 7 isn't so much with Manning who has been almost perfect in the least fluky way possible. He has a ton of weapons and though Dallas is only allowing about 21 points a game, those are buoyed by games against dink-and-dunk offenses in KC and STL. Against NYG and SD, who are not great offenses IMO, Dallas has allowed over 30 points. The trend says to tail the public if they are on a favorite scoring over 21 points a game when the spread is over 46.

[MobFade]

HOU+7-125 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

Strongest leans remaining this week are GB, CAR, and Thurs 1st half Under. Everything else looks like it might be going into teasers unless we get significant line movement throughout the week.

HOU I like here as stated before as I see these two teams as about equal, but we're somehow able to still buy it to a TD at some books. Looks like this thing has crossed the 6 some places and I see it going to a more realistic 4 or 4.5 before it's all said and done.

[Eddy Munny]

I like the Bears this week a lot also. This is more or less a gut play. The Saints, fresh off of a Monday night drubbing of the Fish, hit the road as a slight favorite against a team who just got drubbed themselves and are eager for redemption. This game is on grass, outside the friendly confines of the Superdome and something tells me the Saints get handed their first loss of the season this week.

[MobFade]

I like the Bears this week a lot also. This is more or less a gut play. The Saints, fresh off of a Monday night drubbing of the Fish, hit the road as a slight favorite against a team who just got drubbed themselves and are eager for redemption. This game is on grass, outside the friendly confines of the Superdome and something tells me the Saints get handed their first loss of the season this week.

Ya I agree with all that. Going to let that line ride out and looks like it will get to CHI+1.5 so we can tease with teams like DEN, GB, maybe NE, maybe PHI, and maybe IND. Probably going to play mostly teasers this week as I think there are a lot of good legs.

[MobFade]

Play for Thursday:

BUF/CLE 1ST HALF UNDER 20.5-110 | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT

RotoWorld already reported a 60% chance of rain so I don't think there's any chance this line gets any better and will probably get worse. CLE is the lean for tonight and there might be a play if this thing gets much closer to -3-110 or -3-115.

[Eddy Munny]

No lean on the SD/Oak game? I like the Raiders quite a bit here. Their defense is respectable, whereas the Chargers D is garbage. And with Freeney being out for the year, the Chargers are gonna have trouble getting to the quarterback, especially a mobile one like Pryor. I think Pryor will be able to keep a few key drives alive just by scrambling on third down, and with zone reads on first or second. Sprinkle in a few timely deep balls, and you have the makings of an upset. Rivers' phenomenal play of late has masked a lot of San Diego's shortcomings, but that can't keep on going forever. Raiders, Bears, and Texans.....my 3 plays in the NFL.

[MobFade]

No lean on the SD/Oak game? I like the Raiders quite a bit here. Their defense is respectable, whereas the Chargers D is garbage. And with Freeney being out for the year, the Chargers are gonna have trouble getting to the quarterback, especially a mobile one like Pryor. I think Pryor will be able to keep a few key drives alive just by scrambling on third down, and with zone reads on first or second. Sprinkle in a few timely deep balls, and you have the makings of an upset. Rivers' phenomenal play of late has masked a lot of San Diego's shortcomings, but that can't keep on going forever. Raiders, Bears, and Texans.....my 3 plays in the NFL.

Man, I've been fading SD since week 1 and they've burned me too many times. I don't trust Oakland's D to slow Rivers down, but gun to my head yeah I take the points with Oakland.

[2daBank]

No lean on the SD/Oak game? I like the Raiders quite a bit here. Their defense is respectable, whereas the Chargers D is garbage. And with Freeney being out for the year, the Chargers are gonna have trouble getting to the quarterback, especially a mobile one like Pryor. I think Pryor will be able to keep a few key drives alive just by scrambling on third down, and with zone reads on first or second. Sprinkle in a few timely deep balls, and you have the makings of an upset. Rivers' phenomenal play of late has masked a lot of San Diego's shortcomings, but that can't keep on going forever. Raiders, Bears, and Texans.....my 3 plays in the NFL.

over 45 is where it at in this gm..both defenses give up a ungodly completions percentage, both in the bottom of league of defending 3rd downs, neither can stop teams in the red zone.it gonna take terrible offense for this to stay under..i made total 48-51 so def some value at 45..

[MobFade]

Been lazy all week but got a couple things to add to the card this morning:
CAR-1.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
GB-7-115 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

Teams coming off the bye as a favorite are 103-64, 61.7% ATS in the last 10 seasons.

[MobFade]

NE-.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

I guess WagerWeb is using this .5 line as teaser protect as they have it on a couple games. Was going to take this at -1 but I'll take the free half point. Trend that applies to both this and CAR:

Road teams between -7 and +3.5 bet between 60-75% by the public according to this link at close are 264-188, 58.4% ATS in the last 10 seasons. Both games should fall in that window. Patriots are getting healthier, and Bungles are banged up on Defense. Brady might have someone to throw to today in Amendola.

[MobFade]

Couple teasers here. Don't usually play 6.5 point teases but these two lines were in teaser-protect and TopBet offers these at -120 which is kind of the industry standard for 6 points now.

CHI+7.5/PHI+7.5 | -120 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
GB-1/DEN-2.5 | -110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

GB/DEN seems obvious. CHI I like against NO outside and PHI should at least keep it close.

NE/CIN UNDER 45.5-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
SD/OAK OVER 45-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

100% chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. I don't think this line has factored that in yet as I'm sure the over got hammered all week. Tailing bank on the SD/OAK over as it makes sense.

[MobFade]

Adding TEN and another unit to Carolina which is now a 2 unit play:

TEN+3-110 | BOVADA | 1 UNIT
CAR-1.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

100% rain in Tennessee for this game and chance of thunderstorms. Getting a full FG with the home dog in what should be a low-scoring affair with total down to 39 and a capable backup in Fitzpatrick playing for TEN. Trend is teams that allow less than 21 PPG that are 3 point dogs or greater in a game with a total under 46 and that the public is less than 50% on are 115-87, 56.9% ATS. I like KC and they were the lean early in the week but a full FG was too good to pass up.

[Dfjay9]

gl today.

[SmittyZ28]

over 45 is where it at in this gm..both defenses give up a ungodly completions percentage, both in the bottom of league of defending 3rd downs, neither can stop teams in the red zone.it gonna take terrible offense for this to stay under..i made total 48-51 so def some value at 45..

I like this bet too, but no McFadden and no floyd makes me a little apprehensive

[MobFade]

Card before kickoff:

DEN-7-115 | 1 UNIT
HOU+7-125 | 1 UNIT
CAR-1.5-110 | 2 UNITS
GB-7-115 | 1 UNIT
NE-.5-110 | 1 UNIT
TEN+3-110 | 1 UNIT


CHI+7.5/PHI+7.5 -120 | 1 UNIT
DEN-2.5/GB-1 -110 | 1 UNIT


L BUF/CLE 1ST HALF UNDER 20.5-110 | 1 UNIT
SD/OAK OVER 45-110 | 1 UNIT
NE/CIN UNDER 45.5-110 | 1 UNIT

GL Everyone