My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 3 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.
I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.
Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.
It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometime it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.
Thursday
Kansas City @ Philadelphia (-3, O/U 50.5)
Nothing to report from Vegas early in the week but my oddsmaker contact did say the total was bet up a half of tick from 50 to 50.5 at his shop. Here in NYC at our local shops same exact story.
Sunday
Arizona @ New Orleans (-7, O/U 48.5)
This opened at +8 at the shop my Vegas contact works for and he told me a small early money came in on the Cardinals and the # dropped down to 7.5 He said a lot of books in town will be watching this one close and you may see shops start to move the Saints to -9 just to get out of the teaser window. He said with so much public money losing with the Saints last week they may not be as quick to bet them in this spot. Remember the public loses faith quickly in teams. Here in NYC at our local shops this opened 7.5 and books moved to 9 after taking some teaser action. At +9 they quickly took dog money from sharps and moved the line back down +7 with sharp money where it seems the love stopped. He said once they moved down to 7 they immediately saw sharp action the Saints in teasers so that’s their dilemma on this game. Total bet up half of tick from 48 to 48.5
NY Giants @ Carolina (-1, O/U 46)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this at 1.5 and has been quiet. He did point out he expects the Giants to be a popular dog even with the betting public on Sunday and books will likely be rooting for Carolina. Here in NYC this opened at +2 and was moved down to +1 which is a pretty insignificant move. Books here are in the same position with so much local recreational bettor money on the Giants books will need the Panthers here in NYC at our local shops. All is quiet on the total.
St. Louis @ Dallas (-4, O/U 47)
This opened at 4 at my Vegas oddsmaker’s shop and he told me he took a little dog money early and moved this down to 3.5 as we go to press. Nothing to report on the total early in the week. Here in NYC at our underground local shops a little different story this opened at 3.5 and was bet up to 4 as we go to press. Total up a half of tick from 46.5 to 47.
Detroit @ Washington (-2, O/U 49)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact said he opened this at 2.5 and quickly took a big bet on the dog at +2.5 and moved down to +1.5. He said as the week progressed he saw money come in on Washington and moved back up to 2.5 where all is quiet sitting under the key # of 3. Here in NYC all the early sharp money has come in on the Lions, this opened at a PK and was bet up to to -2 and my local bookie source said they’ll try to keep it under they key # of 3 as long as possible. He said if they did hit 3 other sharps would likely hop in on the dog. The total has been bet up a half of tick here.
Cleveland @ Minnesota (-6.5, O/U 41)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact told me all the reports of the QB switch had early sharp money grab the Vikings at -4.5 at his shop and he said public money will be following them. This line is up to -6.5 at his shop already and he said he wouldn’t be surprised to see this hit 7 by the weekend where some sharps who laid with the Vikings early in the week can setup a middle situation getting the favorite at -4.5 and grab the dog at 7 or higher if it pops up. Sharps laid -3.5 here in NYC at our local shops early in the week and all the money has been coming in on the favorite moving this up to 6.5. My local contact told me this is likely to be one of the most lopsided games on Sunday with all early sharp action on the Vikings early in the week and said the recreational money will follow this weekend. Both my local and Vegas books will be rooting for the Browns on Sunday.
Tampa Bay @ New England (-7. O/U 44)
Nothing to report on the key # of 7 early in the week in Sin City. The total was bet down a half of tick according to my Vegas oddsmaker contact. Here in NYC my local bookie contact told me they opened this at -7 and took some sharp teaser money on the Patriots and moved this to 9 to get out of the teaser window. At 9 he said they saw some sharp money come in on the dog and moved the line back to 7. There was big sharp money here in NYC on the Under moving this down to 43.5 from a 46 opener as sharps aren’t impressed with either of these offenses through the first two weeks.
Houston @ Baltimore (+2.5, O/U 45)
Nothing to report early in the week on the side or total from Sin City. My Vegas oddsmaker contact told me with the injury news of Ray Rice he expects the recreational money to come in on the Texans and if this hits +3 he said you’ll likely see some sharp support come in on the dog. Usually the public loves Super Bowl Champions but that isn’t the case with this Ravens team. Here in NYC at our local shops this opened -2 and is up to -2.5 as we go to press and the total has been bet up a half of tick from 44.5 to 45.
San Diego @ Tennessee (-3. O/U 43.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact had nothing early to report on this game All is quiet here in NYC but the total was bet down a half of tick from 44 to 43.5 as we go to press.
Green Bay @ Cincinnati (+2.5, O/U 48.5)
This opened at -2 and is up to -2.5 as we go to press at my Vegas oddsmakers shop. He said this is likely to go to 3 as books try to entice some dog money from sharps on the Bengals. He said the money is likely to be lopsided on this game and books will be rooting for the Bengals in this one. Same exact story here in NYC on this as my local contact told me books will need some Bengals support over the weekend as the recreational money will be all over the Packers.
Atlanta @ Miami (-2.5, O/U 44)
This opened -1.5 at my Vegas oddsmakers shop and they are to -3 with strong sharp support coming in on the Dolphins in this game. My Vegas oddsmaker contact told me recreational money will be all over the Falcons so this will be a recreational square public vs sharps on this game. Same exact story here in NYC at our local shops except it hasn’t hit 3 yet it’s up to 2.5 as we go to press.
Buffalo @ NY Jets (-2.5, O/U 38.5)
Nothing to report early in the week from Vegas. Here in NYC this opened at 3 and sharps took a shot on the dog at +3 and this line moved down to 2.5. My local NYC bookie source said at -2.5 they’ll likely see plenty of recreational money from local Jets fans and he wouldn’t be shocked if this moved back up to 3 this weekend. A little bit of movement on the Under moving down from a half of tick from the opener.
Indianapolis @ San Francisco (-10, O/U 46)
My Vegas oddsmaker said this opened at 10.5 and there was a little sharp interest on the dog at 10.5 and he moved this down to 10 where all has been quiet. Given the 49′ers proximity to Vegas he did say he expects a good amount of 49′ers to come in later in the week when 49′ers fans look to bet on their team and he said depending on how the turnout is this may move off the key # of 10 during the weekend. Here in NYC at our local shops all is quiet with nothing to report on side or total of this game.
Jacksonville @ Seattle (-19, O/U 40.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact said books wasted no time and hung a 19.5 on this game where all has been quiet during the early week. He did say the total was bet down a half of tick at his shop as we go to press. Here in NYC on our local underground scene this opened at 19.5 and a little bit of money trickled in on the dog moving this down 19 as we go press. Nothing to report on the total.
Chicago @ Pittsburgh (+2.5, O/U 40.5)
Not much to report on the side from Sin City early in the week but my Vegas contact did say early sharp sentiment is on the Over as he was bet up from 39.5 to 40.5 as we go to press. Here in NYC all is quiet as we go to press on this game.
Oakland @ Denver (-14.5, O/U 49)
My Vegas oddsmaker said the public loves betting on Peyton Manning and will be all over him in this primetime Monday Night game. He opened this at -14 and is up to -15 as we go to press. He said books will be rooting for Denver big time here and they haven’t seen any sharp support come in yet on Oakland to help them out. He said the total was bet up a half of tick as well. Here in NYC all is quiet on this game early in the week.
Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one. Long term we’ve been beating up on the books in NFL 101-62-4 (62%) L/167 NFL Bets! It’s good to have a guy like me by your side come Sunday to help utilize my contacts to make us money on some diamonds in the rough. Hop on board with me this Saturday and Sunday as I look to exploit the marketplace with the help of my contacts.
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2013 NFL Week 3 Smart Money Report
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