this game is this guy walterfootball's game of the month, he's on ravens
think i would rather go with walker though
this from his webiste: not trying to spam walker's thread, just copy & pasting some discussion
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: "The Ravens can't score. Their offense stinks." That's the mindset most people have with Baltimore right now. Given that the team tallied 14 points versus Cleveland last week, it's a natural reaction.
However, I think the notion is inaccurate. The Ravens weren't that bad offensively last week - at least not in the second half. They had four real drives. Two ended up being touchdowns; one was interrupted by a Ray Rice fumble; while the fourth was ruined by a holding penalty. Baltimore didn't score in the first half, but Justin Tucker missed two field goals. It also must be noted that the Browns definitely have a top-10 defense in the NFL (if not top-five). So, given that Baltimore should have scored 20 points, I don't think that's too bad.
But what about Houston's defense? Can't they shut the Ravens down? Well, everyone knows of J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing, but the Texans have been a bit disappointing defensively this season. The linebackers, excluding Cushing, have played poorly, while there are some concerns in the secondary. Johnathan Joseph hasn't quite been himself, and the safeties have struggled at times.
It must be noted that Ray Rice could be out for this game, but I don't think that would downgrade Baltimore's offense at all. Bernard Pierce is a fantastic runner and will be able to fill in nicely.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: Rice has the prominent injury in this matchup, but the Texans have a pretty big one of their own. Stud left tackle Duane Brown has turf toe and could miss this contest. If so, backup Ryan Harris will be asked to block Terrell Suggs.
This is just yet another problem the Texans have with their scoring unit. The front line isn't blocking very well, as left guard Wade Smith and right tackle Derek Newton have both been liabilities. It also hurts Houston that the coaching staff is stubborn and refuses to utilize the top running back on the roster. Ben Tate is playing so much better than Arian Foster right now; thanks to multiple injuries and a huge workload, Foster looks like a shell of his former self.
Because of these issues, Houston has had a tough time sustaining drives this season, save for the second half against San Diego. And here's the thing - the Chargers and Titans don't have great stop units. Baltimore maintains a much better defense than San Diego and Tennessee, so the Texans should continue to have problems scoring.
RECAP: This is my September NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Ravens for the following reasons:
1. This spread makes absolutely zero sense. Texans -2.5 at Ravens would translate to Texans -8.5 at home versus Ravens. Houston was -8 over Tennessee, so this is saying that the Titans are a half point better than Baltimore. What?
2. That brings me to the misconception the public has of these two teams. Average bettors think the Ravens are garbage because they can't score, but as noted above, that's simply not true. Baltimore put together some quality drives against a tough Cleveland defense last week. In the opener, the Ravens struggled because Michael Oher suffered an injury, and the coaching staff couldn't adjust for a fifth-round rookie tackle blocking Shaun Phillips. Baltimore has a great defense and a solid running attack, even if Rice is out.
Meanwhile, the Texans could very easily be 0-2. They needed a crazy comeback and help from the officials to beat the Chargers. They then were trailing in the second half at home against the Titans. Why are they road favorites against a decent team?
I have Houston and Baltimore Nos. 7 and 11 in my
NFL Power Rankings. The Texans are slightly better, so my calculated line would normally be maybe Ravens -2. So, why is it -3.5? Read on...
3. The Texans just won in overtime. Home teams that prevail in an extra session and then have to travel usually struggle in terms of covering.
4. The Ravens have a pretty strong homefield advantage. They're a ridiculous 24-3 as hosts since 2010, with only the Packers (25-3) maintaining a better record in that span. Two of the three defeats have been to the rival Steelers, who know how to play in Baltimore, while the other was to Peyton Manning last year. Last time I checked, Matt Schaub was no Peyton Manning.
5. This is a big revenge game. Houston beat Baltimore last year, 43-13. Do you think a prideful team like the Ravens will let something like that go? The Texans were obviously not 30 points better than Baltimore last year, so what happened? Well, that was the first game in which Ray Lewis was out. Suggs happened to return from an Achilles that contest, but he wasn't himself quite yet. The Ravens were simply out of sorts, while Houston was out for blood after losing to Baltimore in the playoffs the year before. Well, it's the Ravens' turn for vengeance.
6. While the Ravens will be hyped up to get a victory here, the Texans don't really need this game. They're 2-0 right now. Following this contest, they have to deal with the 49ers and Seahawks. Those are non-conference foes, but they're perceived to be the top teams in the NFL (perhaps aside from Denver). Houston may have one eye on those two tilts.
7. Home underdogs seem to be the way to go this season. It's a small sample size, but thus far, they're 6-3 against the spread.
8. There's a great trend that supports the Ravens: Home underdogs who will be road favorites (Baltimore is at Buffalo next week) are fantastic bets in between Weeks 2-10: They were 61-26 against the spread since 1989 (that's how far back my records go).
The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
The Ravens are out for revenge.
The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
A bit of action on the road favorite.
Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (6,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
See Ravens trend above.
Opening Line: Texans -2.5.
Opening Total: 44.5.
Weather: .
Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 17
Ravens +2.5 (7 Units - September NFL Pick of the Month)