[SBRPicks]

Peter Loshak has his weekly phone call with Dr. Bob, getting answers to posters' questions about Dr. Bob's handicapping methods as well as some last-minute advice on notable upcoming games.



Math Models and Technical Analysis






Expected Future Results






Turnovers






Indiana/Iowa






Georgia/Florida







USC/Oregon






Texans/Bills






Big Favorites Covering in the NFL

[HoulihansTX]

Thanks for answering my question Bob, and also for Loshak for asking. I didnt think that yall would take it seriously with all the emoticons I put within my question.

New found respect, but the "OK Corral 'Stache" still has to go.

I'm betting against WVU today, due to their struggles with turnovers. Also putting a small bet on Nebraska, as I see their past turnovers as an aberration.

[saintjames]

[ikeyman31]

Great Stuff. Thanks for asking my question Loshak, and Bob for answering it. Bob actually went on and answered some more of my questions besides that too.

[statnerds]

Thank you for the input gentleman and the chance to ask the question. i predict lines every week before they get posted Sunday night at an unamed sportsbook, and actually had Hou 4.5 on this one. so to see 3 flat knocked me off my chair.

Great dissection of the game Dr Bob. Agreed, Fitzpatrick does take care of the ball, but when you sit behind Trent Edwards, says a lot about where you are in your career. Additionally, when you have 3 brand new NFL starters on your O-line, it might not matter all that much.

I only have two issues with your analysis. First, as for winds, won't the Bills offense be playing under the same conditions? If it comes down to running, I'll take the defense that gave up 45, 44, 46 and 59 their L4 games.

Second, you quoted a lack of a running game against Dah Raiders, but failed to mention 29-6 final score.

I also like to look at situations. If the Texans have dreams of making the playoffs they need to win games like this one. With the Colts on deck 2 of next 3 games, a loss this week will be devastating.

When 67% of teams that win ITS win SU this year, and a short number, I like the Texans. I guess one of us will be wrong.

GL

Thanks again. To be addressed by one of the best cappers ever is humbling.

[Scorpion]

dr bob is not having a good year

[brock]

Thanks for the opinion.

[daneblazer]

Georgia has a decent pass rush? are you kidding?

[mmike032]

Georgia has a decent pass rush? are you kidding?

[mmike032]

Gainesville = Jacksonville by the way

[diehardfan]

Could you ask him why he ****ing sux balls?

[gomiamigo]

I'm more interested why he quotes his record as x-y since 2004...I guess he had a crappy football year in 2003?

[jellobiafra]

Georgia has a decent pass rush? are you kidding?

He doesn't watch the games. He openly admits that.

Don't ask me how he quantifies a pass rush. I'm assuming UGA has good sack numbers, but if you don't watch the games it's really hard to say if that translates to a pass rush. Pass rush and sacks are not necessarily related.

[Jaug]

Thanks for vids. I think we are seeing a general pattern of favorites covering/contrarian analysis getting killed ever since US public was taken out of betting market.

[saintjames]

[jjgold]

Guys Dr Bob is not a sports bettor or a sports fan and does not factor in personnel enough as he does not watch games which is very important. He looks at stats only which to me does not work.

[Wrigley]

what was record yesterday?

[Rio DiNero]

Guys Dr Bob is not a sports bettor or a sports fan and does not factor in personnel enough as he does not watch games which is very important. He looks at stats only which to me does not work.

I call him out on that JJ. If he does not watch the games, than how does he know details about how he unluckily lost games? (ie: his last series of videos)

[durito]

I call him out on that JJ. If he does not watch the games, than how does he know details about how he unluckily lost games? (ie: his last series of videos)

lol

[statnerds]

This post is pointless to anyone other than myself. And while one game means nothing over the season or over a year of wagering, being on the right side of this game with one of the best cappers on the other really is a confidence boost.

thanks for the opportunity to address a professional capper SBR

[311]

he bets on teams that score 0 points.... ie new mexico and tulane and supposedly won by .5 on eastern last week. why would anyone want to ask him anything? what a joke!

[GoldenBears]

I call him out on that JJ. If he does not watch the games, than how does he know details about how he unluckily lost games? (ie: his last series of videos)

Ever heard of play-by-play stats? They're published every week.

[ABEHONEST]

Ever heard of play-by-play stats? They're published every week.

wow,what a overload of x's,o's, and horse manure !
I think I'll stick with the ol' coin toss .

[ChuckyTheGoat]

What ever happened to this guy, Dr Bob?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Where is JJ's Dr Bob video?

[ZetaPsi808]

Bob says he played iowa -17.5 vs indiana and they covered by a half point

unreal

unreal

http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=293042294

smokey cradle me

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Z, what do u think of Dr Bob?

[jjgold]

DR Bob is another major FRAUD

Bet his picks and you get destroyed like ALL TOUTS

[wantitall4moi]

Here is the thing about math, math models, math guys, and all that bullshit. ANYONE can do it. Math is constant, or supposed to be. Therefore you give these guys that share databases, techniques, formulas, methods the same game and the same info they all come up with the same answer.

The guys that actually win and make money are the guys who take the info and use it with some discretion. I have databases, and models out the ass. I can get 50 different results from plugging games into a simulator, doesnt mean jack shit.

These types of guys use it to sound smart, better informed and more on top of things.

I could blow smoke up people's asses all day by posting this Micky Mouse bullshit, might even be 'accurate' enough to build some sort of cred or reputation on it as well.But it would still be bullshit. But people seem to try and respect people that are smarter or at least try to make themselves look smarter than the average audience.

Dr Bob is a smart guy and he has some good points about some things but in the end it still comes down to truth versus fiction. The truth is math and models will never ever be good enough to predict the outcome versus the spread in sports it just wont. There are simply way too many variables, and the variables are what makes the difference. Especially in the NFL.

Knowledge however is power, and thats why I can always laugh at these guys because whatever they cite as their method I have and then some. I started that a long time ago. I remember back in 95 and 96 (before I went inside) guys were on the net promoting and touting their systems and their math methodology. So I spent a lof of time inside figuring that stuff out and getting guys to prepare stuff for me. When I got out I had databases built and results scanned and got print outs of openers, closers, moves and whatever else you could think of put into a searchable format. It took almost a decade to get them close to complete.

While they are good to have, they are mostly just good for debunking and countering false assumptions and claims. Past results dont predict future events. But having the results makes it easier to debate fools who try to value or claim a value of some half point at such and such a spread with such and such a total. Because I can look it up, look at the opener, look at the moves, look at the buy backs and then look at the results. In the end it still doesnt say who did what, why, and when.

Math is just safety blanket for these guys who really cant do it by feel. So they make up terms and then compound that by calling sports betting a 'market' and then they try and equate it to analyzing and picking stocks and using that methodology.

Just more bullshit in the evolution of guys trying to make themselves sound smart than the previous generation when it comes to sports gambling. I have done it the same way since 1985 and while technology has changed and made some things easier, it surely hasnt made figuring out who is going to win and by how much one bit simpler.

[jjgold]

Dr Bob still talking about his one good year

All touts only promote rare winning seasons even if 8 years ago

Conmen and frauds

[Brock Landers]

I THINK this guy got interviewed on 60 Minutes!

[wantitall4moi]

Dr Bob still talking about his one good year

All touts only promote rare winning seasons even if 8 years ago

Conmen and frauds

Well to be honest it is the 'good' year(s) that are the real profit. I made a lot of money betting sports, did well this year so far since I picked back up again. But for the most part if youre grinding it will be like a job where you pay your expenses and bills and live a 'normal' lifestyle. Gambling is basically about making a living and not really having to work.

I have had 3 or 4 major sports scores and those are really the things that were windfalls and allowed for greater 'investments' going forward.

It isnt as easy as starting out with X amount and grinding out enough to survive, you need a couple lucky scores that will promote your bankroll beyond and more quickly than it would have been grinding and then still having the knowledge and where with all to continue making money. While you can make aliving and not have to work if you approach it 'correctly' you arent going to get 'rich' at it unless you get lucky or make some scores that dont follow any sort of 'logical' approach.

Had I not made what I made fading the lakers and betting on a few other key NBA teams this past year I wouldnt have bet baseball at all this summer. But since I got that 'lucky' score and made quite a bit of throw away money was able to churn that into a very sizable return over the past few months, with still a couple months to go.

Could I have taken some money I have and done it anyway? Sure, but then it would have been like I was 'working' it again instead of casually doing it for something to do to pass the time while I am not picking avocados, riding the bike or mowing the lawn.

[jjgold]

Wanty some top flight posts

No idea anymore what works and who tells the truth

I can assure you Dr Bob does not bet so there is your answer how sharp he is

[CanuckG]

Dr. Bob

[jerry]

Here is the thing about math, math models, math guys, and all that bullshit. ANYONE can do it. Math is constant, or supposed to be. Therefore you give these guys that share databases, techniques, formulas, methods the same game and the same info they all come up with the same answer.

The guys that actually win and make money are the guys who take the info and use it with some discretion. I have databases, and models out the ass. I can get 50 different results from plugging games into a simulator, doesnt mean jack shit.

These types of guys use it to sound smart, better informed and more on top of things.

I could blow smoke up people's asses all day by posting this Micky Mouse bullshit, might even be 'accurate' enough to build some sort of cred or reputation on it as well.But it would still be bullshit. But people seem to try and respect people that are smarter or at least try to make themselves look smarter than the average audience.

Dr Bob is a smart guy and he has some good points about some things but in the end it still comes down to truth versus fiction. The truth is math and models will never ever be good enough to predict the outcome versus the spread in sports it just wont. There are simply way too many variables, and the variables are what makes the difference. Especially in the NFL.

Knowledge however is power, and thats why I can always laugh at these guys because whatever they cite as their method I have and then some. I started that a long time ago. I remember back in 95 and 96 (before I went inside) guys were on the net promoting and touting their systems and their math methodology. So I spent a lof of time inside figuring that stuff out and getting guys to prepare stuff for me. When I got out I had databases built and results scanned and got print outs of openers, closers, moves and whatever else you could think of put into a searchable format. It took almost a decade to get them close to complete.

While they are good to have, they are mostly just good for debunking and countering false assumptions and claims. Past results dont predict future events. But having the results makes it easier to debate fools who try to value or claim a value of some half point at such and such a spread with such and such a total. Because I can look it up, look at the opener, look at the moves, look at the buy backs and then look at the results. In the end it still doesnt say who did what, why, and when.

Math is just safety blanket for these guys who really cant do it by feel. So they make up terms and then compound that by calling sports betting a 'market' and then they try and equate it to analyzing and picking stocks and using that methodology.

Just more bullshit in the evolution of guys trying to make themselves sound smart than the previous generation when it comes to sports gambling. I have done it the same way since 1985 and while technology has changed and made some things easier, it surely hasnt made figuring out who is going to win and by how much one bit simpler.

Wantit, at the beginning of each post always mention that the winner pays the vig, that way no one will waste time reading further.