No plays yet, but wanted to post some way too early leans before the Week 2 MNF game after looking at the opens:
SD@TEN-3
ARI+7.5@NO
CLE+4.5@MIN
TB@NE-7
NYG@CAR-1.5
STL+4@DAL
DET+2.5@WAS
HOU@BAL+2.5
GB@CIN-PK
ATL@MIA-1
IND+10.5@SF
Just looking at the BetDSI poll, these are almost all non-public sides, so likely a lot of late-week plays. Favorites are:
CLE: Getting Gordon back and finally have someone who can stretch the field should open everything up if Weeden had time to throw. Their O-Line has been one of the biggest disappointments for me this year and it would be the stone cold nuts if Shawn Lauvao came back too. The kid filling in at RG has gotten wrecked last 2 weeks but either way I don't think he could get any worse with 2 starts under his belt. If CLE can't cover here I'm going to stop betting them for a bit until they can show that they can score. If they become the Norv Turner offense that they now have the personnel to be, this team is going to be an ATS cash cow for the next 4 weeks. They have an elite D and it was gut-wrenching seeing them blow the cover weeks 1 and 2.
NE: If they can get one more target back for Brady and it doesn't rain, this is a lock. Freeman is scaring the shit out of me and TB is almost un-bettable IMO until he gets his confidence back and we can stop talking about Mike Glennon starting.
CAR: This line is going to flip and probably close NYG+2.5 or something because Joe Public is going to load up on the G-Men rebound. I am firmly on the "NYG are just an 8-8 team" bandwagon, and Eli cannot carry this team. Too many problems in their back 7 and no run game make this team very beatable. CAR is on the cusp of a breakout with an elite front 7 and Cam running the read-option.
DET: I don't like the Lions, but WAS is still way over-rated. They made the playoffs out of a weak division last year with the league unable to stop RGIII. He doesn't look anywhere near healthy, and certainly isn't running all over the place. WAS has regressed to the dregs of the NFC East until RGIII is mobile, and that means we're looking at probably a 5-win team. Easy to say after 2 losses including a blow-out, but tell me where we saw anything that looked like a capable QB or a competent stop-unit in WAS. The fact that WAS-2.5 is getting crushed by the public is hilarious and I think that might not last if the media piles on the criticism this week.
MIA: Damn MIA is good. I was selling them to start the season with their free-agency spending spree, but they are absolutely stacked on D and their offense has looked really balanced. MIA might be a Top 10 team right now. ATL has Matty Ice to Julio in the GA dome and das it. If it rains in MIA this weekend, this could be a blood-bath. Loading up on MIA and the public looks to be on the other side so I'm going to see if this can get all the way to MIA+3 and then go all-in.
IND+10.5: I was initially surprised by this line as any live dog +10.5 or greater is an auto-bet for me, and I've got IND as the 19th best team in the league. I thought this would open at +7.5, but I'll take Andrew Luck for a shot at AT LEAST the backdoor cover any day of the week.