[Filmoz]

I got straight up buried today, no doubt. When I looked at the 49ers/Seahawks game, my first two instincts were "Seahawks win and cover, easy" and "this goes under, easy." Then I just plain overthought the shit out of it. Told myself "don't be a square, you haven't even capped the game yet, you are just thinking like every hamburger that ever got off a plane in Vegas." I somehow talked myself into thinking that the "sharp" side was either 49ers plus the points, or the over. Ultimately went big on 49ers. Literally as soon as the game began I knew it was dead money. Hindsight is a bitch. I'm thinking how many times in the past have I seen Harbaugh on the sidelines all flustered and frustrated? A million fukking times. And how many times have I seen Pete Carroll on the sidelines with an ear-to-ear, shit-eating grin because his team is killing it, benefiting off every fukking penalty, every fukking good stroke of fortune? A million fukking times. This story has already been written. And yet I disregard all of this shit and bet the other way.

Basically, the moral of the story is, don't talk yourself out of your first instinct simply because you feel like it is only a hunch and is "square." Because if you're on this site, you are a more-than-casual sports bettor, and if you are a more-than-casual sports bettor, then you have watched more games than your average schmuck by a large margin. And when you watch all these games, your subconscious mind is taking in and storing all kinds of information. Your brain is an amazing computer. So what seems like just a hunch and an instinct may actually be a very well-reasoned, calculated prediction. You just don't fukking know it because your brain just spits it out in the form of a hunch, and because you have all these preconceived notions that sports betting is about data and shit, you shake it off and waste a bunch of time "capping" only to end up looking like an even bigger hamburger than the one you were trying to avoid being in the first place. Don't overthink some of this shit. Square, sharp, fukk all that. Trust your instincts.

That is all. I'm out.

[JayDeezy]

Words of wisdom, something I will def use.

[dirtycash66]

I agree with you 100%....everyone knows that the seahawks are a beast at home, that should have been the easiest bet of the day,but when u get scared to pull the trigger and start trying to over think, that's when you screw yourself.

[Jikos]

Same thing happens to me sometimes. I agree with you completely on that our brains work like that. You have to think long term and realize that your original feeling was a good one and learn to follow that feeling consistently and efficiently.

[shopbar picks]

Amen. If I can still say that in this country.

[lecubs28]

yeah i agree you can really overthink these things. best to put as little analysis into it as possible.

sometimes i just hit myself in the head with a ball peen hammer and look at the rotation schedule and bet on whichever team pops out at me first

[The Samurai]

yeah i agree you can really overthink these things. best to put as little analysis into it as possible.

sometimes i just hit myself in the head with a ball peen hammer and look at the rotation schedule and bet on whichever team pops out at me first

I prefer the dead-blow type hammers with the little BBs inside as apposed to the ball peen. That or I lean against a wall and drop a ten pound dumbbell on my temple repeatedly. Then I know it'll be a big day.

[face]

this week none of the line moves mattered, you were either right or wrong

broncos line moved all over the place - blowout
seahawks same thing
titans + points; all the numbers hit
jets + points; all the numbers hit
etc. etc, every game was like that except maybe rams, where if you got +7 real early you pushed

i bet early so no line moves psyched me out this week
might do it again like this this week, because honestly when the line moves i start overthink things

glad i took raider and denver before i started reading stuff on forums

good luck filmo

[ZINISTER]

I wish I could follow this advice. If you change your mind after you have thought seriously about going the other way, just refrain from betting, if you are not a degenerate you can do it.

[slacker00]

First instinct is trash. Do proper analysis and make an informed decision. WTF is wrong with u guys?

[BIGSACK]

Yeah, good point. I did the same on broncs yesterday, talked myself out taking the broncos ml and took giants with the pts. But thank god I trusted my instinct and made biggest play on the seahawks yesterday.