1. 09-13-13 03:17 AM #1
    mebaran
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    Allusions of Grandeur

    Let's play a game. I post my plays starting in the next couple of weeks, and you try to figure out how I'm picking them (patterns).

    Tried this in other sports, to no avail. But one night I had an epiphany and the next morning I decided to tackle the worlds sharpest lines. Months later (now), I believe the fruit is hanging low enough for me to grab some edge. I'll post my plays here because what better way to test a strategy than to test it in a live market!?

    Plays will start in the next two weeks and will pick up in volume as the season progresses. Good luck, me!

    (As always, feel free to critique, contribute, berate, or follow.)
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  2. 09-16-13 02:44 AM #2
    mebaran
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    Alright, so I'm going to release these early. There may be some more plays as the lines keep coming out too, so just watch for them.

    The first 5-6 weeks of the season, I'm going to bet a little less than my normal unit size since there are small samples. Edge exists, but there is more risk, so adjust accordingly.

    Plays for week 3:

    TEN -3 (-120) to win 0.75 units
    STL +3.5 to win 0.75 units
    ARI +7.5 to win 0.75 units

    Also leaning BAL +2.5, but this is assuming Ray Rice gets some touches this week. He doesn't haveto get 25+ touches for me to dislike +2.5....but he does have to play at a high level.
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  3. 09-18-13 08:27 PM #3
    mebaran
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    Happy about the movement in the ARI line. Looks like it will settle on 7 barring anything crazy. STL line is hanging at 4, which I'm not happy about...but my model HATES the Cowboys right now. Going to keep an eye on that. TEN I paid extra juice on 3 when I probably could have been patient and got it for even vig. Oh well.

    (For the record, if I don't post prices on the spreads, assume they're -110....I unfortunately don't have access to Pinny... =(
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  4. 09-18-13 08:42 PM #4
    Noleafclover
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    There is no more apt place to say:

    I do not think that word means what you think it means.

    What does that have to do with the price of butter, you may ask?

    To that I say- Wrong wrong wrong wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong. You're wrong. You're wrong.

    2 betpoints here for anyone who got all 3... erm... whatchamacallems.
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  5. 09-18-13 09:57 PM #5
    mebaran
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noleafclover View Post
    There is no more apt place to say:

    I do not think that word means what you think it means.

    What does that have to do with the price of butter, you may ask?

    To that I say- Wrong wrong wrong wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong. You're wrong. You're wrong.

    2 betpoints here for anyone who got all 3... erm... whatchamacallems.
    I'm sorry, I don't follow. Are you referring to line movement as not being an indicator anymore?
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  6. 09-18-13 10:01 PM #6
    Noleafclover
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    Allusions are references, illusions are false presentations. Since no one played my game, the allusions were to Princess Bride, Kingkiller Chronicle books, and Scrubs.

    Edit: You might say I was alluding to your vocabulary's eluding you and leaving you ill-used.
    Last edited by Noleafclover; 09-18-13 at 10:09 PM.
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  7. 09-18-13 10:04 PM #7
    mebaran
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    ...was wondering when I'd get someone to tell me "Dude....I think you mean DELUSIONS..."
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  8. 09-18-13 10:19 PM #8
    Noleafclover
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    Thought you were going for this: http://gatherer.wizards.com/pages/Ca...verseid=159749
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  9. 09-19-13 02:24 AM #9
    mebaran
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    Who DOESN'T want to gain +20 life ?

    Illusion of Grandeur! (Erosions of vocabulary)
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  10. 09-22-13 03:11 PM #10
    mebaran
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    0-2-1 this week, -1.65 units
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  11. 09-22-13 09:26 PM #11
    mebaran
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    Early bet for next week:

    DAL -2 to win 1 unit
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  12. 09-22-13 09:27 PM #12
    mebaran
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    Quote Originally Posted by mebaran View Post
    Early bet for next week:

    DAL -2 to win 1 unit
    and adding NYG +4 to win 1 unit
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  13. 09-22-13 10:54 PM #13
    mebaran
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    adding:

    IND -8 to win 1 unit
    SEA -3 (+101) to win 1.01 units
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  14. 09-22-13 10:57 PM #14
    pulledclear
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    Dead as a Hammer.
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  15. 09-22-13 11:22 PM #15
    mebaran
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    Quote Originally Posted by pulledclear View Post
    Dead as a Hammer.
    Pardon? You on a different side/sides?
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  16. 09-23-13 04:37 PM #16
    mebaran
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    adding:

    PIT PK
    CHI +3

    Saw the PIT line come up on Bookmaker at +1.5 and immediately clicked it to enter a bet, and when I entered it, it had already shot to PK....DAMN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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  17. 09-24-13 02:57 PM #17
    mebaran
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    Just cleaning up a bit and consolidating all plays for week 4 into one post:

    DAL -2 to win 1 unit
    NYG +4 to win 1 unit
    IND -8 to win 1 unit
    SEA -3 (+101) to win 1.01 units
    PIT PK to win 1 unit
    CHI +3 to win 1 unit
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  18. 09-30-13 12:07 AM #18
    mebaran
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    This week: 1-4-1, -3.4 units
    Overall: 1-6-2, -5.05 units

    ^^Fade material
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  19. 09-30-13 11:50 PM #19
    mebaran
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    Plays for next week (please be 18):

    BAL +3 to win 1 unit
    NE +2 to win 1 unit
    SEA -2.5 to win 1 unit
    SD -4 to win 1 unit
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