[MobFade]

Still some sweat in our last thread on NYG-1-110 and PIT+7 in a tease:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/2522614-mobfade-preseason-week-2-preview-9-0-last-week-woop.html

Here's the thread from Week 1:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-bettin...k-1-picks.html

What I've UNDERLINED here are the numbers I would need based on the information I have now to take either side and then what I think these game WILL open at (not necessarily where I think they SHOULD open at).

As lines come out and start to move, I will post either 1, 1.5, or 2 unit plays. I've included these ranges so you can make some plays on your own if you feel so inclined, but my official picks will be posted in BOLD. These lines are a little bit shopped, but only between TopBet, Bovada, and WagerWeb which I believe are all still available to Americans. If you're not shopping lines, you're leaving money on the table, and really you should be up on way more books than this.


NE-3 @ DET+4.5 | OPEN: NE-4
Calvin Johnson is back in practice and with him, Detroit's whole offense looks different because Stafford no longer looks like Andy Dalton just throwing shit up to the 6'4" guy. Great fade spot as NE looked razor sharp last week and Detroit looked razor shit. Tom Brady will not play more than a half, Detroit needs all the practice they can get. Again, back on Jim Schwartz's tail unless we get the Pats at -3. DET 3-1 under Schwartz in Week 3 and 13-5 overall. Bellichick 6-7 in Week 3.


CAR+7-125 @ BAL-3-135 | OPEN: BAL-4.5
I like both teams into the regular season but I like Baltimore here in a night game bought from -3.5 to -3-135. I still think BAL is underrated based on this ridiculous +8.5 @ DEN line for Week 1 that I keep seeing. I'd take CAR buying them to a TD from +6.5-110. John Harbaugh 4-1 in Week 3 of pre-season. Carolina has looked flat and Cam has looked meh. Might also be taking this game first half.


SEA+3.5 @ GB-PK | OPEN: GB-2.5
God this is the classic fade spot. Seattle just hung 40 on DEN, and GB has scored like 2 points all pre-season but I still like SEA here. They are sooo deep at all positions, but this is a night game, primetime, at Lambeau, Fail Mary, Aaron Rodgers pre-season redemption, Mike McCarthy 5-2 in Week 3, etc. This is gonna be a lot of people's thuuuuuper sharp play of the week if they open less than a FG, but I can tell you already I won't be betting the Packers. There probably is value on the 2.5 but I like Seattle's depth, especially at QB and the intensity with which they are all playing. Look for a Brandon Browner suplex in a chippy game, and a tease on Seattle.


CHI-2.5 @ OAK+7.5 | OPEN: CHI-4
If you're thinking that this is an unreasonably broad range, it's because I have zero desire to bet this game. Last year I kept throwing cash away betting OAK and KC after they had given up (and fading CIN down the stretch), and I'll be damned if I'm going to lose more betting the QB circus on Oakland's depth chart in the pre-season. UNLESS I can get the hook on a TD at +7.5 because I hate money and I want to just to laugh at all the squares like "You laid how many points on the road in pre-season?!?!" CHI I think will open wayyyy too big a fave and I'll hem and haw at the line until I talk myself into taking Oakland. No meaningful Week 3 trends.


TB+4 @ MIA-2.5 | OPEN: MIA-3.5
I wish I had the records of coaches in Week 3 that start 0-2 in the pre-season. I'm going to pretend right now that it's pretty good as I think Schiano is the kind of guy that doesn't like to lose no matter what, but he is just coaching an over-rated team (there, I said it). Doug Martin is questionable right now, but hopefully his loss is going to be blown out of proportion (hence the hook on the 3). If this line is at 2.5, look for a TB tease later in the Week, maybe in addition to a bet on Miami. We might get crazy like that shooting middles in this situation as I think this is a close enough spot to do it.


PHI-3 @ JAX+7 | OPEN: PHI-2
Pretty much sold on PHI already as long as I don't have to lay more than a FG on the road in pre-season with a team that is 7 months removed from being 4-12. I like what Chip Kelly is doing, I like Ron Mexico as a starter in this system, and I like the depth at QB. I also really liked JAX coming into the off-season. I really thought Gus Bradley would go down and ra-ra them up to play inspired, physical defense and change the culture of that franchise. I thought he would take what he saw happen in Seattle in the course of 3 years and apply a lot of that. Burn down the roster, start from scratch, bring in guys that fit your system, etc. I thought a new GM might draft smartly, and you might see Seahawks - East down there in 3 years. So first thing they do is nothing. I mean like zero moves in FA, and you let a bunch of your vets walk. Okay, new regime, they want guys that fit their scheme, trim the fat, I get it. Then you take a RT 2 overall. Okay, you're really pushing it, but they got some numbers they think back this up and it could change the way we value RT's ... okay. I love econometrics or sabremetrics or whatever (I really do, after like Week 5 of the regular season) but then what do you do? You take a small school safety with some good safeties still on the board, not to mention all the talent at holes you still have. Raw in coverage and with shit measurables/40 time, so an overall questionable play on a roster too devoid of talent to be taking these long-term gambles 33rd overall. Next up, we have the second best CB at UConn, when the best one is still on the board. And then this ... Then you take penetrating Shoelace and Ace Sanders. What is your penetrating angle here? What is your team's identity? You draft a RT so Gabbert has more time in the pocket and then you turn around and draft Shoelace to be a what? An Offensive Weapon? To run the wildcat? To catch passes out of the slot? Tony Sparano, is that you? Why draft Ace Sanders then? You already have Cecil Shorts in the slot. HOW ABOUT YOU ADDRESS YOUR FRONT 7 GUS BRADLEY. WHY DID YOU NOT TAKE STAR LOTULELEI. This draft was so deep you could have shored up that part of your roster, because outside of some projects at LEO, you have nothing. Anyway, Jacksonville has zero talent on their roster, so what do they do? That's right, absolutely nothing in FA still. Maybe they really are tanking the season. NYJ and OAK are turning their franchises around (still not sure about that Hayden pick though), and JAX is headed the other way ... back to being the sideshow they've been for the last 5 years. Oh, and if you're going to draft a Wildcat quarterback in the Except I do like the CB's they took. /rant

[MobFade]

ATL-3-135 @ TEN+7-125 | OPEN: ATL-2.5
Mike Smith's records by week. 1: 1-5, 2: 1-5, 3: 4-1, 4: 1-4. Enough said, but I'll say more. This will probably also open a pseudo-sucker line, but Tennessee is bad and getting worse with Kendall Hunter I'm sure at least out next week of pre-season. I do like what they did with their O-line, but Locker is just too inaccurate. Laying less than a field goal would be money, but I'll buy this bitch off the hook at close if need be. It's like that. If we don't get a number we like, wait until just before close and I think some so-called sharps will drop the hammer on Tennessee.




STL+10 @ DEN-6.5 | OPEN: DEN-6.5
Jon Fox 7-4 in Week 3. Fisher is a pre-season champ except in Week 3 where he's 4-11. I'll be on DEN unless we get to double digits, either ATS if less than a TD, or more likely in a teaser if it's 7.5-8.5. DEN just got embarrassed, and though STL is a live dog on the road, I think that reputation has gotten too blown out of proportion. How the hell were they a 4.5-point favorite hosting GB?


CIN+4.5 @ DAL-2.5 | OPEN: DAL-2.5
Okay enough with these Ned Flanders plays, everything points to us getting great value with Dallas here. Marvin Lewis is 2-8 in Week 3. Cowbows coming off 2 losses, Bengals off 2 wins means the public perception (if the public watches pre-season), will favor Cincy. Also look for the middle-shot here.


SD+6 @ ARI-3 OPEN: ARI-3.5
The more we get into this, the more I think ARI is going to be last year's STL and cover 10 games. Everyone has written them off, but I think they are markedly better than last year. They had an elite defense already, signed Carson Palmer, are deep at WR, and they shored up their line drafting Johnathan Cooper, signing Eric Winston, and returning Levi Brown from injury. You might almost be able to say "Arizona" and "run-game" in the same sentence even though they are playing knee-less has-beens at RB. SD has maybe the worst O-line in the league, and Arizona can bring pressure. You might think that based on my logic in the Dallas game that I would take SD here. Not the case, as I think they are the 3rd worst roster in the NFL, and won't be a live dog this year.


NO+4.5 @ HOU-2.5 | OPEN: HOU-3
Another possible middle-shot here if it gets to -2.5. I love Houston and think NO is the most overrated team coming into this year. I mean, you don't go from the worst defense in the history of football, to as good as Atlanta (per Week 1 spreads) just because your head coach came back. Yes, they drafted a FS 1st round too, but that's a very heady position that will take a few years to grow into. That said, Sean Payton 6-1 in Week 3. Obviously the Saints have a lot to prove after last year, which is why I think they'd be a live middle.


MIN+7.5 @ SF-4 | OPEN: SF-5.5
SF looking like hot garbage all pre-season and MIN looking like MIN. No pre-season trends that I can see. I think SF is in the same boat right now as GB in that they're disappointing compared to where people thought they'd be. MIN and IND are the two luckbox teams last year that shouldn't have made the playoffs and I don't think the Minny fade has been fully actualized yet. I guess I don't really know how the books value either team right now because GB is still between a 4 and 5.5 point dog Week 1 in SF. Can MIN be less of a dog even though it's only Week 3 of pre-season? I don't think so, which is why I have them opening on the same dead number that GB was at for a while.




Probably going to be some first half plays here for obvious reasons. I know I saw a lot last week that I liked and felt like we left money on the table by not getting on them. Also I wrote some stuff about possibly middling one side of a teaser, with the opposite side ATS. For instance TB @ MIA this week, taking MIA-2.5 ATS and TB+8.5 in a tease. Have I done the math on this, yes and it looks good. Do I trust myself to quantify my edge enough to post those numbers for scrutiny by all of you? Not really, but suffice it to say I think we can arb about 2% FO' FREE for a half point of movement (imagine in example above that we got MIA-2 or TB+9 after the line moved), while taking a shot that should be AT LEAST breakeven, but I believe are worth almost another 1% of intrinsic value after juice. These are for games where I'm not in love with one side or the other, or maybe want to throw a team in multiple teasers but want to hedge.

[frostie]

what do you think about the under tonight first half in the giants game? 22.5

[MobFade]

TO BE CLEAR, THE "OPEN: -X" IS NOT AN ENDORSEMENT OF A TEAM.

I want to repost some of the regular season Week 1 plays from the last thread:

ATL+3.5-115 @ NO | WAGER WEB | 1.5 UNITS
HOU-3-120 @ SD | WAGER WEB | 1.5 UNITS
SEA-2.5-110 @ CAR | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT
CIN+3.5-115 @ CHI | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT
2 Team 6 Point -110
NE-1.5 @ BUF / MIA @ CLE+8 | TOP BET | 1.5 UNITS

[MobFade]

what do you think about the under tonight first half in the giants game? 22.5

I don't bet totals because I suck at it. LT Profits seems to be the guy you want to ask about totals and he's gonna tell you Under.

[MobFade]

Giants blow it, 15-4-1 now this preseason.

[tony_come]

Just winners please

[MobFade]

Just winners please

I sorry massa

[MobFade]

Some juicy openers on BookMaker:
ATL+3.5-110 | BOOKMAKER | 1.5U
DEN-6.5-110 | BOOKAMAKER | 1U
BAL-3-120 | BOOKMAKER | 1U
HOU-2.5-115 | BOOKMAKER | 1U

Also like CLE, NYJ, NE, GB in teasers if you can get them -110. Like those teams just ATS as well, but no plays yet. Greek is posting now and I'd bet CLE and NYJ we can get to 3, maybe beyond but these are two strong plays for this week. Keeping an eye on BUF, like the +3.5 but I think we got a shot at maybe public money getting this to 4. Greek also opened PHI-3-115 which is down from -3.5 that all other books got which is somewhere I'd take it.

[MobFade]

Adding 1.5 units on the brownies:

CLE+3-110 | TOP BET | 1.5U

[MobFade]

Rough finish to last week going 0-3 with NYG and PIT loss ATS and PIT dropping the teaser as well. On that note, another teaser for next week
2 TEAM / 6 POINT -110 TEASE
NE+8 / NYJ+8.5 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

Neeeeevermind line wasn't actually available.

[MobFade]

K, adding this:

DAL-2.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

Adding one more tease on NE:

2 TEAM 6 POINT -110
NE+8.5 / BUF+7.5

[hanco21]

nice write ups

[BIGSACK]

are u betting on the Seahawks tonight? Packers haven't look very good at all, rams would beat them easily if that were a regular season game. I also have the under b/c I don't think the packers will be able to score much on that tough Seahawks defense.

[MobFade]

No I didn't bet that game as I thought line should have been GB-2.5, but won't bet against the Seahawks. I thought there was better value with GB crossing the 7, as I said earlier "Also like CLE, NYJ, NE, GB in teasers if you can get them -110." This was a classic fade spot (the same dynamic we're trying to take advantage of with DAL this week) with Seahawks rolling last 2 weeks and GB looking like shit. I didn't post anything today as I didn't like either game and was kind of deflated after being on NE in 2 teasers and BAL ATS and losing the turnover battle 8-0 in both games combined for a 3 Unit loss.

I'll be looking to add NYJ and possibly ARI tomorrow if the numbers get better.

[MobFade]

And wouldn't you know it, TopBet has a good line:

2 TEAM 6 POINT -110
NYJ+8 / BUF+7.5

[BIGSACK]

I thought the Seahawks been blowing people out because they r actually trying, packers look like shit b/c of injuries, bad o line and not a very good back up qb. Packers took out Rogers early last night think in the 2nd qtr after 2 series bc McCarthy knew they r having problems to protect him.

[BIGSACK]

Packers look like shit so far maybe bc they really r. Rogers won't be very effective if he had to run for his life all day long. they r 1 injury away from a 4-12 team, think this is the year bears or lions take the division.