[on3]

Any thoughts on tonights NCAAF?

trends point to Air Force. but no play for me.

[J.M. Disciple]

trends point to Air Force. but no play for me.

I was orginially going to pick Airforce with a teaser at +30.5, but now I learned their QB is out. I am not sure how big of an impact that will make since they run the ball 90% of the time. I know its an QB Option, so i guess it all depends on how big of a runner their back up QB is. I ended up taking BSU 1st half -13.5 for a small amount. Might chase 2nd half if they do not cover. I am trying not to step out of systems too much as my own plays and leans have been losing quite a bit past two weeks.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/service-pl...l#post19621268

Here is a heads up on unders system that is hitting 70% on the entire season with lots of plays. Some thing I will be on big next year. I think best way to stop labby lines from getting so heavy is to combine a couple systems in a similar labby fashion.

Today I only took STL and WAS as other two plays didn't meet the juice on my book. Also I am trying to make sure the team is +.500 record and opponent is -.500 record to increase winning chances instead of only having a home record. I think overall, it might eliminate too much profit but should be a bit more consistent. Just a theory as it has not been tested.

Make sure you check out that unders thread though. I am trying to finish the season off with an aggressive labby approach with it. Probably a slightly bad idea being in sept...

[J.M. Disciple]

Should be a middle bet coming up in the NCAAF today. Airforce is currently a +13.5 underdog 1st half and they are up 17-14 getting close to half time.

[J.M. Disciple]

confirm the math really quick.


airforce losing 17-21 at half.
2nd half line +11
adjusted line +15
entire game line +23.5

15 - 23.5 = 8.5
no play...

or do i add +23.5 since they are underdog...

[alexknyc]

confirm the math really quick.


airforce losing 17-21 at half.
2nd half line +11
adjusted line +15
entire game line +23.5

15 - 23.5 = 8.5
no play...

or do i add +23.5 since they are underdog...

If you aren't sure how this system works, you may want to consider not using it.

I don't get the system (must have a mental block but I'm not understanding what I'm supposed to be adding or subtracting) so I'm sitting it out.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

So full game line: DEN -7 and 49
Half time score: 14-17
2h line: DEN -6 and 24.5
Adjusted line: DEN -3 and 55.5
55.5 - 49 = 6.5, o/u doesnt qualify
-7-(-3) = 4, spread doesnt qualify

NO PLAYS FOR 2H

I saw this 2nd half system a few years ago. On that thread (on a different sight) was different than how you do it. To do the Over/Under is really easy. Using the full game O/U number (49), you subtract the half time total (31)...18. If it's a play you would play the Over cause it's trending over. You would subtract the number you got (18) from the 2nd half line (24.5), to give you 6.5...no play.

However, I believe you got the team play wrong (after typing this and realizing a missed point on my part, you weren't wrong...but I'm not retyping!!). Den was -7 at the start, and were down 3 points at the half. Therefore, the Broncos need 10 points just to PUSH, which makes the adjusted line to be Denver -10 or Balt +10. The half time lines, which are added suntracted to the adjusted lines to see if there is a play, were Den -6/Bal +6....which equals Den-4/Bal+4....no play. My mistake was adding to the lines to get +/- 14.
Here is an excellent explanation from last year on another site. His sarcasm, not mine:

-------For the current people dying to figure out how we get to the conclusion, read my 2nd to last post.

You write down the opening lines. Then at halftime, you write down what the true (adjusted) 2H lines should be according to the opening lines. So tonight Chicago was +5.

Green bay is up 13-0 at half. So we must assume since chicago was predicted to lose by 5 points, that they will out score Green Bay by 8 points in the 2nd half. So we now know the TRUE (adjusted) 2H line should be Chicago -8.

The real lines came out and Green Bay was a -2 point favorite. So that's a 10 point swing from what the true line should be so you can make a play on Green Bay -2 because they were the favorite to begin the game and have been on pace to cover. Now you stick with the favorite in the 2H if there's a 10 point difference.

The same logic is used for the Over/Under numbers. Which tonight, the under hit in the 1H so now you stick with the under in the 2H because there's over a 10 point differential. Get it? Now relax LOL--------

Hope this helps

[J.M. Disciple]

In your last example
Greenbay 13 - chicago 0

2nd half line GB -2

Adjusted line -15

adjusted line (-15) - whole game line -5 = -10 so its a play.

chicago adjusted line +15 whole game line +5 so its a play?

I am still a bit confused on this system as well. Maybe I will sit it out for a while. I am really just waiting on Basketball as my hands will be completely filled with a couple systems there.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

In your last example
Greenbay 13 - chicago 0

2nd half line GB -2

Adjusted line -15

adjusted line (-15) - whole game line -5 = -10 so its a play.

chicago adjusted line +15 whole game line +5 so its a play? (This is wrong)

I am still a bit confused on this system as well. Maybe I will sit it out for a while. I am really just waiting on Basketball as my hands will be completely filled with a couple systems there.

(copied from the quote I posted):
Green bay is up 13-0 at half. So we must assume since chicago was predicted to lose by 5 points (the spread was Chc +5/GB -5), that they will out score Green Bay by 8 points in the 2nd half. So we now know the TRUE (adjusted) 2H line should be Chicago -8.

The adjusted line was made by adding the Chicago +5 (pregame line) to their score in the game (13-0 to 13-5) and then subtracting Chicago's score from Green Bays' (13-5=8). Same way is looking at the GB side. They were the Fav at -5, so you would subtract the line from their score (13-0 to 8-0). Chicago needs 8 points to get to the push (or make the pregame line TRUE), so the adjusted line is Chc -8/GB +8. The halftime line is GB -2.....adjusted line minus actual line....8-(-2)=10.

Anyway, it's taken me a few days to wrap my head around it. I'm making a spread sheet where I just have to plug the numbers in and get the plays. I already have the formulas done for Over/Under, getting ready to do the Team plays. The O/U plays are more profitable, anyway.

I will make a link to the spreadsheet, if On3 doesn't mind. This way we won't have questions every week about these plays when the actual plays of the thread get started soon.

I just checked On3's post #21, we take different roads to get the same point.

Geez, I got confused again.

[J.M. Disciple]

please do post spread sheet. Someone else posted spread sheet, but something that was a play, spread sheet showed no play, so guess didn't work correctly. If you get something that works correctly that would be really helpful. Looking forward to it by Sunday hopefully.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

please do post spread sheet. Someone else posted spread sheet, but something that was a play, spread sheet showed no play, so guess didn't work correctly. If you get something that works correctly that would be really helpful. Looking forward to it by Sunday hopefully.

Just finished one. I'm gonna clean it up and post it later tonight or tomorrow morning a couple of hours before game time

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Here is the link. Check it out...do some fake games compare it to your own manual figures and let me know how it does.

On3...since you know the system well, let me know how it stacks up to the computations you did the last few weeks.

You can use this with any Excel version...or should, I believe.


https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr...it?usp=sharing

Back to work.

[Want2Win]

Nice job and a lot of work you did Buckeye!

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Thanx. I've been following around with spreadsheets this last baseball season and this was relatively easy to do. Just a matter of figuring out the formulas.

[Want2Win]

Thanx. I've been following around with spreadsheets this last baseball season and this was relatively easy to do. Just a matter of figuring out the formulas.

I had to down load an update from micro soft because I guess my version of excel wouldn't let me open your sheet. All is cool and thanks again for the work!

[playr101]

I am not understanding still. The data sheet says no play.

But we have a 5pt underdog who is winning by 14pts! And they are a 7pt underdog 2nd half.
Why is this a no play on the spread sheet?

-14 at half +7 2nd half so adjusted line is -7, +5 = 12 right?

My spreadsheet is set to 13... you can change what number you want it to go off of.
So you are playing 12 and above?

[BuckeyeKaptn]

I found a problem in mine...fixing...it's fine for over/unders though

It's fixed...It wouldn't have given you a bad play, just wouldn't have told you if it's a play or not.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr...it?usp=sharing

same as before

MAKE SURE YOU ONLY EDIT THE BLUE>>>THE OTHER COLORS HAVE FORMULAS IN THEM!!!

[Want2Win]

I found a problem in mine...fixing...it's fine for over/unders though

It's fixed...It wouldn't have given you a bad play, just wouldn't have told you if it's a play or not.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr...it?usp=sharing

same as before

MAKE SURE YOU ONLY EDIT THE BLUE>>>THE OTHER COLORS HAVE FORMULAS IN THEM!!!

Buck, should I delete the other one and use this one? Thanks for your time!

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Buck, should I delete the other one and use this one? Thanks for your time!

yep.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Question for all that are playing the 2 Half system. Which Pregame lines are you using? Some of them are a difference of 1, 1.5..2 points of each other.

[J.M. Disciple]

I just go off covers for pregame lines and use my book for 2nd half line.

[J.M. Disciple]

Have to actually download it? I Signed into my google account, but cant seem to type anything. I saved it to my desktop, but every time i tried to open just has another save option.

[J.M. Disciple]

If you do not mind, can you post the 2h bets that are plays? Was up until 5am pacific time last night and do not feel like double checking all of my guerrilla math.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

If you do not mind, can you post the 2h bets that are plays? Was up until 5am pacific time last night and do not feel like double checking all of my guerrilla math.

You're supposed to download it.....I'll see if I can post it to the cloud. I've never done that before so I'll try and do it this week, for those that don't have excel.
Sure I'll post.
I'm going to use Vegas Insider's casino consensus.

[on3]

Dal/kc -- NO PLAY
stl/atl -- ATL +.5
car/buf -- UNDER 21
min/chi -- OVER 20
was/gb -- GB -1.5
mia/ind -- OVER 23
sd/phi -- NO PLAY
cle/bal -- UNDER 21
ten/hou -- NO PLAY

[BuckeyeKaptn]

I'm just going to edit this post...so keep refreshing.

SD/Philly...No plays
Cle/Bal....Under 21
Ten/Hou....No Plays
Car/Buf...Under 21
Dal/KC...No Plays
Was/GB...GB -2.5
Mia/Ind...Over 23
Stl/Atl...Atl +1
Min/Chc...Over 20.5

[on3]

thats it for the AM games. see you guys in the afternoon.

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks for the plays

[on3]

I'm just going to edit this post...so keep refreshing.

SD/Philly...No plays
Cle/Bal....Under 21
Ten/Hou....No Plays
Car/Buf...Under 21
Dal/KC...No Plays
Was/GB...GB -2.5
Mia/Ind...No Plays
Stl/Atl...Atl +1
Min/Chc...

Mia/Ind -- 34 at half, 23 2h, adj = 57, game 43.5, diff of 13.5, YES PLAY OVER 23

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Mia/Ind -- 34 at half, 23 2h, adj = 57, game 43.5, diff of 13.5, YES PLAY OVER 23

You caught me in mid retyping...I forgot to change the score on the spreadsheet and had to retype it. Glad to see that the plays are the same, though.

Next time, I'll check my work before I repost!!!

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Here ya go, JMD...in the cloud. Easier to do than I thought


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...lE&usp=sharing

[J.M. Disciple]

thanks buck I got it!

[J.M. Disciple]

1-3 this 2h system is not performing very well this season so far. Pretty close to 50/50 or below 50% overall?

[on3]

Det/ari no play

[on3]

Jax/oak no play

[on3]

Denver/nyg no play