1. #1
    C-Gold
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    2012 Best ATS NFL team 5 way tie @ 11-5, Indy, Denver, Wash, Seattle, St. Louis

    2012 Best teams against the spread were

    #1 tie @ 11-5 - Indy, Denver, Washington, Seattle, and St. Louis
    #6 tie @ 9-6-1 - New England, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Tampa
    #10 tie @ 9-7 - Houston, Green Bay, Carolina, San Fran
    Made money @ 8-7-1 - Cleveland, Minnesota
    Broke even @ 8-8 - Saints

    Everybody else lost money, here were the biggest losers
    4-12 ATS Eagles
    5-11 ATS, Oakland, Kansas City,
    5-10-1 ATS, Detroit
    6-10 ATS, Dallas and Tennesse

    Lots of Parity last year. A lot of teams were in between 6 and 9 wins ATS. The Colts and Redskins obviously beat expectations last year. Seattle and Denver lived up to the hype. Jeff Fisher kept the Rams close in enough games to go 11-5 ATS for a team many didn't predict much from.

    The Eagles were a big flop. Oakland and the Chiefs lived up to their crappy expectations. Dallas was another disappointment. Detroit was an example of an offensive team that got more credit than they deserves because everybody knows they can score points.

    I made good money last year playing the Rams and fading the Eagles. I knew Philly and Pittsburgh were going to disappoint.

  2. #2
    C-Gold
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    Here are some interesting stats.

    Buffalo was 5-2 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS as a dog.
    Pittsburgh was 4-8 ATS as a favorite and 2-1-1 as a dog.
    Indianapolis was 5-1 ATS as a favorite and 6-4 as a dog.
    Denver was 10-2 ATS as a favorite and 1-3 ATS as a dog.
    Oakland was 1-4 ATS as a favorite and 4-7 ATS as a dog.
    Washington was 4-3 ATS as a favorite and 7-2 ATS as a dog.
    Dallas was 2-7 ATS as a favorite and 4-3 ATS as a dog.
    Minnesota was 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 7-3 ATS as a dog.
    Tampa was 2-3 ATS as a favorite and 7-3-1 ATS as a dog.
    Seattle was 5-4 ATS as a favorite and 6-1 ATS as a dog.
    St. Louis was 0-2 ATS as a favorite and 11-3 ATS as a dog.
    Arizona was 0-4 ATS as a favorite and 7-4-1 ATS as a dog.

  3. #3
    k13
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    Nfc west > *

  4. #4
    Darkside Magick
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    Made so much money off Denver last year it was nuts....even when they was big favs they cashed

  5. #5
    C-Gold
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    Over/Unders

    Overs
    #1 @ 11-5 New England
    #2 @ 10-5-1 Denver, Detroit,
    #4 @ 10-6 New Orleans, San Diego

    This is exactly what you would expect with New England, Denver, New Orleans and Detroit cashing in on overs.

    Unders
    #1 @ 5-11 Miami, New York Giants, Atlanta
    #4 @ 6-8-2 Kansas City
    #5 @ 6-9-1 Oakland
    #6 @ 6-10 Cleveland

    I am surprised the Giants and Atlanta are on the Unders list. Miami with their defense is no surprise. Kansas City with a lot of running the ball is no surprise. Oakland and KC are no surprise.

    AFCE Net 1 under
    AFCN Net 9 unders
    AFCS Net 5 unders
    AFCW Net 4 overs

    NFCE Net 3 unders
    NFCN Net 5 overs
    NFCS Flat
    NFCW Net 2 overs

    My math could be off but overall the NFL had 2 more unders than overs last year.

  6. #6
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkside Magick View Post
    Made so much money off Denver last year it was nuts....even when they was big favs they cashed
    10-2 ATS as a favorite is impressive. Peyton beats the teams he is supposed to beat.

  7. #7
    easyliving
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    Rams will be money again this year

  8. #8
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Nfc west > *
    Seattle and the Rams were the best in the league ATS.
    San Fran was 9-7 ATS
    Even Arizona was 7-4-1 as a dog which was 75% of their games.

  9. #9
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by easyliving View Post
    Rams will be money again this year
    I was higher than anybody on the Rams last year, nobody gave them a chance with San Fran and Seattle in their division.

    I like them as dogs, they were 11-3 as dogs. Fisher made that team better than people expected but I must admit they got lucky on a couple wins.

    Also, the loss of Amendola will hurt. Bradford would just feed him over and over and over again. Who is he going to go to now? Jackson loss is probably overrated, Richardson looked like a good back from everything I saw.

    I am not sure about the Rams but I want to study that team more. If Bradford takes a step forward they could be the surprise team.

  10. #10
    nvrlose37
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    Too bad Seahawks won't be the dogs for even 4 of their games this year, they were money with pts.

  11. #11
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by nvrlose37 View Post
    Too bad Seahawks won't be the dogs for even 4 of their games this year, they were money with pts.
    Everybody wants to talk about how great Seattle was last year. They were a favorite only 9 times and a dog 7 times.

  12. #12
    nvrlose37
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post
    Everybody wants to talk about how great Seattle was last year. They were a favorite only 9 times and a dog 7 times.
    I'm not drinking the Seattle kool-aid at all but there is no way they will be a dog this year and that's what they were fantastic as last year.

  13. #13
    JRWnPHX
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    Great info, man.
    Thanks.

  14. #14
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by nvrlose37 View Post
    I'm not drinking the Seattle kool-aid at all but there is no way they will be a dog this year and that's what they were fantastic as last year.
    but that's the point. Seattle was 5-4 as a Favorite and 6-1 ATS as a dog. They probably won't be a dog at home, maybe 1-2 games depending on schedule/SF. They could be a favorite in let's say 50% of their road games, that makes them a favorite 12 times and a dog or about even 4 times.

    What was Seattle going into last year? People saw them as a sleeper team. The expectations weren't there, now people are talking about the super bowl.

  15. #15
    billysink
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    Nice effort,

    Means jack shit.

    Good luck with your plays.

  16. #16
    frogsrangers
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    Fade Dallas again this year, their lines are always inflated. Washington should also be a good fade early in the year

  17. #17
    easyliving
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    Quote Originally Posted by nvrlose37 View Post
    I'm not drinking the Seattle kool-aid at all but there is no way they will be a dog this year and that's what they were fantastic as last year.
    if anything they will be overrated this year. Everytime they are favorites on the road fade them.

  18. #18
    C-Gold
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    Week 1 Seattle travels across the country to play Carolina. Remember this is a cross country 1 PM game so you will automatically have system players on Carolina. Seattle is currently listed as -3. This would be the time to test that theory to fade Seattle as a road favorite. You know for damn sure the public will be on Seattle, because they are the better team and ONLY -3. I'd feel more comfortable fading Seattle as a road favorite more into the season, week 1 there is a lot of testosterone flowing as everybody wants to go 1-0 and teams are at their healthiest.

    Week 2 Seattle hosts San Fran for Sunday night football. Depending on what happens from now until then they will probably be a 2 or 2.5 point favorite against the 49ers at home. They might be a 3 point favorite but depending on what happens but I still feel like most people think the 49ers are the better team.

    Week 3 they host Jacksonville. They will probably be a 10 or so point favorite at home depending on what happens. If this was later in the year they might be a 14 point favorite but I feel like the lines have less variance earlier in the year.

    Week 4 at Houston. Houston will probably be a small favorite in this game. Let's say Seattle is 2-1 going into this game.

    Week 5 @ Indy. This game should be very interesting. These teams had identical records last year but you would never know it.
    Indy made the playoffs last year but most people still don't think they are very good. They also lost their true head coach. Most people still don't see them as an 11-5 team and you can argue that they are underrated by the public. Most people are very high on Seattle. You can argue that they are overrated by the public. So what happens when Seattle goes to Indy? Is Seattle a 1 point road favorite?

    If Seattle is 2-2 I feel like most people will think THEY the superior team are due for a win against the inferior Colts. I mean come on, Seattle isn't dropping to 2-3 right?

    If Seattle is 3-1 people will see them keep on rolling against the inferior colts. Yeah they are on the road but they are better right? Then there will be faders pointing out that Seattle has a tendency to shit the bed on the road.

    Week 6. Host the Titians. If they are 2-3 or 3-2 or 4-1 I don't think it matters much. It just depends on how many points, let's say Seattle is a 7.5 point favorite in this game. So how are they going to respond as a decent favorite? How did they do against Jacksonville earlier in the year when they were a very obvious favorite? Do they get comfortable with the lead, slack off? Does that defense come after the opponent in that loud stadium with the lead? Jake Locker is local so this game means more to him.

    Week 7. On the road against Arizona for Thursday night football. Seattle has a short week and goes on the road the Cardinals. Let's say Seattle is a 3 or 4 point road fav. Arizona's defense was pretty good last year but their QB play sucked. Maybe this is a lower scoring ugly game, where the added rest help the Cards keep it close and cover? Another good chance to test the fade Seattle as a road fav theory.

    Week 8 @ the Rams on Monday night football. Two nationally televised games two weeks in a row. The Hawks are a small road favorite again against the rams. Another chance to test the theory. This game's line will probably be affected by the last weeks game on national TV. I am also curious what the rams record is up to this point. The Rams have a shot at competing in this division and you never know, maybe they are in the mix.

  19. #19
    tblues2005
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    C-Gold you have some very valid points on the Seahawks this season and I think that it is possible their quarterback could have some trouble this season because teams have had a chance to figure him out. Looks like their schedule is a bit harder also so I would beware on them and San Francisco because both of them could have a 2nd season issue this year.

  20. #20
    C-Gold
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    A lot of people are drinking the Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick Kool-Aide.

    Kaepernick played 1/2 a season on the most talented roster in the NFL with a very good coach. He threw 10 touchdowns in the regular season last year and he lost his favorite receiver going into this year. He's far from a hall of fame lock.

    RW averaged under 200 yards passing last year. That puts him in company with Matt Cassell 199, Jack Locker 197, Kevin Kolb 194, Mark Sanchez 192. He completed 64% of his passes last year which screams dump offs.

    These two guys have gotten a lot of hype, what if Sam Bradford is the best quarterback in the division next year? He threw for 600 more yards than RW last year and he was a former overall #1 pick with all of the skills. RW is the shortest QB in the league which makes his job a whole lot harder, you can't roll the guy out all the time.

  21. #21
    MobFade
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    RW 6th in the NFL in Yards Per Attempt, tied 5th in the league for pass plays 40+. Lynch only averaged 1.5 receptions a game ... doesn't sound like a lot of checkdown stuff to me. RW's not going to have the stats as long as Seattle keeps running the ball the most in the league, and passing the fewest. Lynch only averaged 1.5 receptions a game ... doesn't sound like a lot of checkdown stuff to me. Don't get me wrong he has his short-comings (lel), but he's efficient as hell (set the NCAA record for efficiency), can extend the play like nobodies business, and is always a threat to run. Especially with the read-option, which is NOT a fluke and I think that wrinkle will change the NFL. It's no more flukey than play-action, the naked bootleg, the shotgun formation, etc. I think teams will get better at defending it and some guy from Stanford has a good YouTube video up about the best way to defend it, but it's still going to at least slow your read-side DE down ... no two ways about it.

  22. #22
    C-Gold
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    Solid rebuttal MobFade but I disagree.

    Take away 1 Golden Tate hail Mary and he's tied for 4 guys with 10, 40+ passes. That's what they do sometimes, short stuff, short stuff, run the ball and then play action when they catch you sleeping. It's not that they are reading the defense and taking the long option, they just set their plays up systematically to take shorts. That's a big difference between what Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning do.

    He is efficient but he's a game manager at this point. Not some elite QB running for his life racking up yards passing and running like ESPN makes him out to be. Plus you can find efficient game managers to win games with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL behind you.

    I disagree with the Read option. After the big injuries it will die down until maybe playoff time you'll see it again. No way NFL offenses are structured like that for the long term. He's our 100 million dollar QB - now tee off and kill him, we are begging you to do it?

    The Redskins are already trying to get Rg3 to run less not more.
    Cam slides and tries to avoid contact
    Vick is the most injury prone QB in the league.
    Kaepernick could turn into a passer, they don't need to run his legs into the ground and risk destroying him.
    RW is already undersized, how many big hits does he need to take before they cut the read option?

  23. #23
    MobFade
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    The Seahawks as a whole I think are going to start out slow. No Bruce Irvin for 4 weeks. Chris Clemons coming off an ACL last year in the playoffs and hasn't practiced w/ the team yet. You got Avril, added some nice interior pressure in Bennett and Jordan Hill, but it's gonna take a bit for these guys to start playing well together. They've also brought in a new DC (used to be with the team in 2010 but not with 90% of these players) who is going to run a similar but different defense. They are moving to a more pure 3-4. Last year they played a 4-3 w/ 3-4 personnel. You had Clemons playing LEO or a Jack OLB, Red Bryant was a 5-tech DE at 330lbs and they played KJ at SAM up at the LOS a lot.

    They've now moved KJ Wright to the WILL from the SAM, and they want to put Bruce Irvin at the SAM when he comes back. Not a huge change and I think once you get everyone back and healthy by say Week 6 the pass rush is going to be insane, but for now it is going to be shaky at best.

    I think Carolina is a legit team with the ceiling of being last year's Bengals and Week 1 without your 2 leading sack guys for an early East Coast game ... tough out. I'm not gonna take a side here

  24. #24
    MobFade
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    For these teams, why would you not just run all your play-action like a read-option and at least freeze the DE. It's perfect in zone-blocking because the hole takes a second to develop anyway. That's what I see the future of the read-option as ... very very similar to play action keeping your safeties honest, the read-option keeps your DE honest and you slow one guy down on the play fo' free. QB keeps maybe 3-5 times a game, maybe run a drag 5-10yds deep and you can just turn it into a bootleg. If you watched RW last year most of his running stuff was behind the LOS extending the play, or some kind of bootleg. Only really at Buffalo did he run all over the place. He also didn't take any big hits last year that I recall.

    I agree that RW is a game manager, but he has a cannon and the accuracy to be elite. I was hearing today that he's been working on his footwork and trying specifically to make his first step deeper and really clean up his last step so he can have a further dropback and see over the line better. Also footwork in the pocket is huge and is what makes Drew Brees so good. Being able to move in there and see through lanes without wasting any steps and still being able to get the ball out as soon as it needs to go without having to reset his weight.

  25. #25
    C-Gold
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    but don't you agree that after an offseason of ESPN that Joe Public is going to be all over Seattle while the sharper betters will be taking Carolina here? Carolina as a home dog getting a FG while Seattle is missing guys and has that brutal travel.

  26. #26
    C-Gold
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    I'd ease off the Drew Brees comparisons.

    Why less read option? To save your QB from hits.
    Rg3 is going to run less
    Vick is the perfect example of hits on a QB and the negative aspects. Even when he isn't hurt he plays scared.
    Cam slides and doesn't run wild.
    RW isn't stupid, they won't be running him his entire career.

    He's a game manager at this point, not some elite QB like espn makes him out to be.

  27. #27
    MobFade
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    Wasn't a Brees comparison, just a fact that shorter guys have less room for error in their footwork and timing with Brees being the prototype of how to make it.

    I think you're also lumping RW in with what Cam, Kaep, and RGIII were doing last year. RW averaged 5.9 rush attempts per game, with a good amount of them being scrambles. If you watch him play he does this a lot and never took a big hit. I would imagine Seattle ran 3 designed QB keepers per game last year. Again, ESPN is over-blowing how much read-option he ran. Cam averaged 7.9 carries per game. RGIII 7.5. Kaep 6.3.

    All I'm saying is it's a legitimate wrinkle that gives the offense an advantage. You only need to have your QB tuck it and run 2-3 times a game to keep that DE from crashing down on inside runs, which can blow up the ZBS because the offense has to react to the defense and it takes longer. Those 2-3 runs your QB has to make a game are like having an extra blocker in on run plays. That's why the read-option will be around for a long time, unlike the wildcat and Tim Tebow which were flukes and gimmicks that were limited because they were essentially 1 dimensional.

    As far as the Carolina game, yes I would lean Carolina in that game. Seahawks are too hyped up, will probably start 2-3 or 3-2 and everyone will lose their minds. Dream team this, dream team that. Won't matter because of what I said before in them missing all their sack guys and re-tooling their defense. This team is still going to win >10 games.

  28. #28
    FlaxMartin
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    Automatic bet on cards +6 vs rams first game of the season?

  29. #29
    ThaTopMoron
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    play the OVER in Colts games vs teams like SF and Seattle, Denver game too.

    Colts in Houston too = play the over.

  30. #30
    Fred The Hammer
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    I like the Over (whatever it is) in the first game....Denver and Baltimore. Flacco is coming into his prime and Von Miller will be suspended...taking away most of Denver's pass rush. Peyton and the 3 amigos will shred the Ravens as well.

    Denver 34
    Ravens 24

  31. #31
    Fred The Hammer
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    As for last years ATS winners....I'm BIG on the Bengals this year!

    Over 8.5 wins
    5-2 to win the AFC North

    I like the big TE from Notre Dame and they'll be able to throw out some 2 TE formations with Gresham to get some nice mismatches there. AJ Green is a monster weapon that opens up everyone else anyway. The defense is very solid....only thing in question is AJ Dalton. I think he can atleast be as good as a Schaub type that can win alot of games and manage the game in the regular season which will make Cincy profitable again.

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