NYG/Dallas Under 49 [3%] - Better Number than when i played it are actually available, I fully expected NYG' pass rush to wake up from their post superbowl slump while the 43 system will suit Ware and Spencer even more so i see less time being given to QB to throw here. I love how Coughlin takes advantage of Romo's weakness (which is his reluctance to go through his progression, he has a covetous eyes), they always try give Romo illusion of 1v1 coverage then drop someone a safety in leading to interception. NYG's lack of TE doesn't hurt here either too.
Car +2 [1st half] [2%] -
Ari/Stl under 42 [1%]: Statistical profiling here says neither can move the ball in the pass so clock should keep on ticking here, advantage Stl here with rush while hidden edge in special teams belongs to Arizona. [Slug-fest]
SF -4.5 [1%]: Fundamental play, GB issues from last year still exists and even if SF's passing isn't dynamite, they can always go to the jumbo package and just enforce their will. Respect for Rodgers' ability to make plays on his own is the only reason why this play is rated higher.
Other Thoughts:
NEP/Buff - NEP doesn't take foot of the pedal when in front and they have found useful TE, this could get very ugly for Buffalo, totally agree with the money on NEP. Also don't like the fact that Buffalo coaching turnover which leaves them with less knowledge of NEP tendencies, to be fair it wasn't like the previous coaching setup solved NEP riddle.
TB/NYJ: Edge here to TB in the run & special teams but i can't lay the number on the road with the way Freeman is playing.
Tenn/Pitt: For the love of God, don't fall into trap here, thinking Tenn is a good wager, watch those -6.5 get gobbled up closer to post, statistically speaking this is a terrible match-up for Tenn.
Cin/Chi - I would lean under here, Cincy can get after QB and Chicago's OL is still a work in progress while Chicago had Number 1 defence against the pass & run last season. This is game that i can give me the most afterthoughts regarding future plays as well.
Mia -1 [3.3%]: Atlanta's pass rush hasn't improved from last year hence they rely heavily to disguised blitz to put QB under pressure they are also coming to this game banged up. Miami has the better defence here and improving QB, i am laying the cheap number.
Here i have the better team offensively and defensively, NYG are banged up, no run game, turning the ball over like confetti vs a home team off a home loss and a team that knows how to create turnovers. Chicago rolls by double digit here.
Oak/KC Under 41 [5%]
KC's defence has been money this year and they did play M.Vick [QB that can run] very well, they should be able to look after Pryor today, based on Oak's defensive metric last week vs SD, they really should have suffered more but they proved otherwise which is sign they trending up on defence again. Also Smith threw an interception last week, i expect him to be very cautious so it will be check down extreme passes which also mean Charles's run lanes may shrink too.
Denver team total Over 37.5 [3%]
3 team 6pt teaser Oak/KC Under, Cin/Buff Under, TB [1%]
Played Cincy -5.5 on few days ago for [10%], i considered laying a bit of it off after yesterday but i will let it roll.
The penny has finally dropped with Dalton, start throwing downfield to your best players in 1v1 coverage or we will find a replacement for you soon. Dalton has been far too timid over his Bengals career, almost waiting for only wide open receivers but last 2 games 6TD & 1 Int with 68% completion rate.
Another thing i like was Bengals's defence was lopsided to start the season showing good advance metrics vs the run but below average vs the pass. Now they are playing the pass and run well simultaneously.
Reviewing the situation spot, NYJ off that big win vs NEP are now on the road and Geno Smith the turnover machine is also playing against a team that can rush the passer well. Bengals should run away here
Last game on NFL is usually my top play but i like too many things here. I know NOS off a loss where offence was inefficient will respond offensively better. Defensively they aren't playing that well as the league starts to make them play both pass equally and they are dropping like flies on that side of the ball too or not fully healthy. I have observed Dallas closely more so on the road, offensively they don't look potent [why]?
On grass, they don't seem to quite complete marginal plays [KC, S.Diego], different story indoors on artificial grass, their only such scenario at Detroit, they put up points against good 3rd down defence. I believe they are likely to be playing behind which gives this Dallas coaching setup no invitation to air out the ball.
We have good QBs that figures to be efficient today, banged up defence, I like over a lot.
Minn/GB Over 44 [5%] - Simply put when i look at the output of Jared Allen & Everson Griffen [players i consider top notch], i think Minny players have given up and are now tanking to make sure they get very high draft pick [at least 2nd overall for acquiring new QB] and inevitable coaching change as well. Look for GB to do damage on the ground here as Minny plays soft
GB -4.5 & Over 44 parlay [1%]
Ten/Oak Over 41.5 [1%]
Last edited by neutral; 11-24-13 at 10:08 AM.
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