With a cold, rainy, and windy afternoon expected at Gillette Stadium today, the total in the Tennesse Titans, New England Patriots game has moved down to a very inviting 40.
Although it will look tempting for bettors to take the under when they are on the chase at 4:00 p.m. ET today, this handicapper looks for some gusty scoring to make the game go over the total.
It should be a wet and wild game today when the Tennessee Titans make a road trip they cannot be looking forward to when facing the New England Patriots. With the Titans yet to win a game this season and failing to score a touchdown last week against the Indianapolis Colts, the under would normally not be a bad choice here today. But for a game to go under, generally both teams have to do their part to make it happen. Even if the Titans cannot find a way to get points on the board, the Patriots should be able to keep Stephen Gostkowski kicking extra points after some sloppy looking drives for touchdowns.
With more running plays expected to happen than usual today due to the weather, some gamblers may look at how the Titans have had the third best defense in the NFL against the run thinking that should keep the ball from moving big. However, it should be the short passing game from Tom Brady and his weapons like Wes Welker who should be able to keep driving down the field. Welker led the Patriots last week in receptions with eight against a Denver Broncos defense that has started out the season among the best of all time.
Welker should have an even easier time today and if he happens to be covered, Brady always has Randy Moss to go to with some passing routes that should be good for some easy catches even with the wind and rain. Welker and Moss have helped the Patriots be second highest in the league for first downs averaging 23 of them per game and third for time of possession with an average of over 34 minutes of ball control each week.
Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney should also provide some dimensions to the Patriots offense that can keep a few long drives going out of the backfield. Last week, Morris had 17 carries for 68 yards against the Broncos and one 35 yard gain through the air. Maroney just about matched his best game of the season last week in Denver carrying the ball five times for an average of over four yards gained each time. With a day like today, I would expect Maroney to get even more touches and for the Titans defense to have a tough time stopping him.
Even with the Titans not putting any touchdowns on the board last week, having to rely more on the running game today with weather like this could be a blessing in disguise. Tennessee has averaged 128 yards per game on the ground making them have one of the league’s top ten rushing offenses. I would expect that average to be exceeded today with the only question being will the attack be enough to get into the red zone and translate into points. Chris Johnson has averaged a very impressive six yards per carry this season for the Titans and his 468 yards gained this season put him only behind Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson there.
The Titans may also have an easy time getting a touchdown scored if they can have some better field position than in most of their games this season. In four out of five games this season, New England’s defense has allowed a touchdown to be scored in the red zone at least half of the time by opponents. So despite the Patriots having the 11th-best defense in league for their averages in yards and points allowed per game, look for some touchdowns by the Titans should they be able to get close.
In last week’s game against the Colts, Tennessee failed to even reach the red zone but with them falling behind early I feel it led to some desperation with the ball through most of the game resulting in no success. This week, it should be different as Jeff Fisher will have to alter the game plan and the weather should result in a few slips on tackles by the Patriots defense allowing the Titans to move the ball a little easier at times.
Games involving bad weather can sometimes too impulsively cause gamblers to get down on the under without really thinking about all of the factors. With the total on this game dropping from 43 ½ to 40 at press time this means it has already fallen through a key total number of 41 which puts anyone taking the under at a disadvantage before the ball is even kicked off. Remember that the defense on both sides can have just as much trouble with rain making it tougher to catch the offense as a play is executed and this may especially be the case in the second half after halftime adjustments are made.
Another factor when looking at how explosive scoring can be is what both teams have coming up next week. The Titans have a bye next week so you know they are coming in very motivated to get that first win of the year and have something positive to build on. New England has a visit to London against Tampa Bay which will feel more like a vacation than anything else, and off a loss last week you know they will really look to run it up here so they can to get back on track.
Scoring today will also depend on the flow of the game and if one team gets up by a lot or if it stays close. If it becomes a blowout, you will probably see some defensive starters get taken out and not want to risk injury on a wet field. This could result in a late back door score or two, or perhaps some more turnovers than expected leading to better field position for a score than the first half.
Special teams can also have a very tough day with weather like this and runbacks on kicks could have all sorts of variance to them. You will likely see more turnovers and muffs deeper in a receiving team’s own end than if the weather conditions were clearer. Additionally, even if the return man gets a good handle on the ball, the kicking team can have a tougher time catching him while they slip and slide on the field without holding their lines.
Good luck with your wagers today, and do not get sucked into taking an already over-valued under with this matchup today. Go with the Over 40 instead and look for those chains to keep moving.
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Titans and Patriots blow Over 40 despite bad weather and wind
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