Last week followed a familiar pattern for me... if you took out my biggest bet of the weekend (San Francisco, ugh!) then I'd have been a nice winner at 2-1. As it was, I lost about 4 units on 23 or so units staked. Small potatoes.
Sadly, this week again I just haven't had time to go through the games like I normally do, so just four bets. Two small ones that are based more on gut feel than usual, and two over/unders that are based on a really nice statistical method of identifying good totals opportunities to bet on.
Baltimore @ Minnesota UNDER 45.5 8 unit bet
This is system-based, as I said
Detroit @ Green Bay UNDER 47.5 8 unit bet
Again, system of sorts. But I like the play, not sure where Detroit is getting points from in this game.
Tennessee +9.5 @New England 5 unit bet
Gut feel, too many points. Tennessee have had a rough, rough time of it but are somewhat unlucky to actually be winless (OT versus Steelers, two kick fumbles otherwise they beat the Jets). I don't think the Patriots are the best-equipped team, good though they are, for the kind of team Tennessee is, so I'll take the points.
Buffalo +9.5 @ New York Jets 4 unit bet
The Jets over-rated defense (look closely at some stats) got exposed somewhat at Miami, which is a shame for betting purposes, really. However, perhaps the Bills awful home loss offset that in keeping this line pretty darn high. With Buffalo abandoning the no-huddle offense, giving their linemen and defense a little more rest, who says they can't rebound from a terrible performance and make this a highly competitive game....
The Bills look absolutely lost. Until someone's head goes on the chopping block over there I am going against them ATS. Bad weather is on your side though. I have Jets and under and I'll hit at least one of them because there's very little chance BUF will score more than 13 points.
GB/DET I see it to be a very good chance of being over. GB has proven they can score 25+ points week in and week out and Detroit has an underrated offense. I think it'll be a shootout and even have some on over 53.5. I see some excuses running around like cold weather in GB will keep the score low. Well the weather is actually quite good for football there tomorrow. I think people just assume that because their city is cold for this time of year and rainy, that Green Bay somehow has it worse without actually checking lol
To be honest I have no idea about the other two plays. But I am hoping BAL/MIN will be high to keep the O/U as high as possible for an aggressive under bet once Bal returns from their bye vs Den.
2-2 for me again and a teeny loss (about 3 units on 25 staked). I seem to either be spectacularly right or spectacularly wrong:
Spectacularly right: Detroit/Green Bay under 47.5 "not sure where Detroit is getting points from". Result, total of 26 and Detroit score precisely zero points
Bills +9.5 "who says the Bills can't rebound from a terrible performance and make this a highy competitive game?" Result, Bills win outright despite losing their QB early.
Spectacularly wrong Tennessee +9.5 Um............
Ravens/Vikings under 45.5 Result a total of 64. This actually looked quite promising; 17 points at the half, 30 at the end of the 3rd quarter - how often do you see 34 fourth quarter points !?
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Week Six picks and thoughts
Reply With Quote
