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Value Plays of the Week!
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Biggest game of the year at this point of the season. The Saints are coming off a bye rested after a big win over the Jets. The Giants are coming off a practice squad exhibition game against a team called the Raiders. The analysis from the so called "experts" on this one is that these are two very evenly matched teams? They actually aren't, but I'll get into that later.
First off, I never like betting teams off a bye week against strong opponents, in this case, a very strong opponent in the Giants. There always seems to be some rust and lay off on both sides of the ball, at least through the 1st half of a game. Both of these teams are hot and playing with a ton of confidence, and I will admit that the Superdome is one tough place to pull out a win in. The Giants though are one of the best road teams I have ever seen in all of sports. For some odd reason they tend to look much better on the road, then at home.
Eli Manning is making his case this year as a top 5 QB in the NFL and in the 2-minute drill or under pressure he's simply the best! Eli is actually making a push for MVP this year as well, and if you dont believe me, go check the numbers yourself. Eli has the best passer rating out of the shotgun this year too, yes, better than Brees and better than his brother! The Giants have put together a nice crop of WR's this year including Smith, Manningham, & Hicks. Kevin Boss is an excellent tight end, not to mention the fact that they might have the best 1-2 punch in the game with Jacobs & Bradshaw. Actually the Giants real strength is the offensive line, they are hands down the best unit in the game. These guys are big, smart, strong, quick off the line, and they punch you right in the mouth!
This game could very easily come down to the wire in the last 2 minutes, but fortunately for the Giants, they're more conditioned and battle tested in those affairs. I'm still not sold on the Saints yet as an elite NFL team, they're good, but they're not in the class of the Giants. The Giants, in addition to having an explosive offense, have an excellent defense. They're among the league leaders in sacks and they have Pro Bowl talent at nearly every position. The Giants defensive line is also hands down the best in the NFL. This might be the 1st week you see Brees under pressure.
The Saints defense has played well this year but against inferior offensive teams. They did beat the Jets at home even though they looked terrible on offense, they beat the eagles without McNabb, they beat the bills in a game that was very close in the 4th quarter, and they beat the Lions at home. I'm not that impressed and I'm not buying it. The Giants are too good on the road, and overall a much better team than the Saints in almost every comparable area of the game. Giants have great value here!
New York Giants +160
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
After watching Minnesota over the past five weeks I can honestly say that the team is really starting to gell. Brett Favre has looked great, shaky at times back there, but overall he's been rather efficient. The one aspect of the Vikings game that hasn't been all that explosive yet, is the running game. Much of that can be attributed to 8 man fronts and teams playing a run stop first defense. The best player on the Vikings does not play on the offensive side of the ball, nope. It's not Favre, or Peterson, or Harvin, or Taylor. Jared Allen is the Vikings best player right now, the guy is an absolute monster, reminds a lot of LT (late 80's early 90's).
Anyway let's take a look at who the Vikings have played and how they've done. They beat Cleveland (more so in the 2nd half), the beat Green Bay at home in a wild one (I'll give them credit in that contest), they beat San Francisco at home in a game they were totally out classed & out played in and should have lost (Favre is a God-send), they crushed St. Louis (who hasn't?), and I believe they beat Detriot? Have these wins elevated Minnesota to the level of an elite NFL team? Maybe, but not for me, at least not yet!
Baltimore comes into this one pissed off after two tough loses to the Pats and the Bengals, games they should have won. All in all the Ravens offense looks pretty good this year. Question: Did anyone else see that Ray Rice play on Sunday? This guy's got a ton of talent, the Ravens need to get the ball to this weapon much, much more! The Ravens offensive line has played very well this year, so I think Rice has the potential here to have another big game, if given the opportunities to do so. Steady Joe Flacco has been very sharp this year. Joe's going to have a long career in this league, guy's got a gun, now only if his wideouts can catch the God*** ball. Minnesota's secondary can be expossed as seen in the SF and GB games, so look for Flacco to have a big game.
What intrigues me about this matchup is the play of defenses. Baltimore has been stout as hell against the run this year, even more so than Minnesota. Baltimore is ranked 3rd against the run, compared to Minnesota at 11th. What concerns me for both sides is the defensive backfields, both secondary's have been burned against the pass this year. With that said, I like a pissed off Ravens team in this spot looking to stay in the hunt for first place in the AFC North. The motivation here is clearly on Baltimore's side, if they lose this week they'll have a hell of a time climbing back into that race with Pitt and Cinci. If Minnesota loses, big deal, they're still 5-1 and they're still in first place. I'll take Flacco this time around over Favre, as both of these teams may meet again in the post season. Expect a high scoring game here.
Baltimore Ravens +125
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Begals
The Texans have a ton of talent, unfortunately their coaching is terrible! With exception of the Jets game, the Texans should be undefeated with a 4-1 record. In last weeks game I think we saw some of the worst goal line play calling in the history of the entire National Football League. I don't know who pissed me off more, Chris Brown or Gary Kubiak? Cincinnati on the other hand doesn't have these problems and has looked fairly strong this year, even though everyone of their games this year has been a nail bitter to the very end. Nevertheless the team is still 4-1, and now everyone has a hard on for the Bengals.
Cinicinnati is being bet somewhat heavy in this one, heavier than I thought, but I've yet to see much line movement in this one. I think the line went from -4.5 to -5, not much in the way of movement. As far as the game is concerned I think this will be another close one. The Bengals have done an excellent job this year of shuting down the top WR of opposing teams. Only this week they get Andre Johnson, the best in the business (IMO). Outside of Andre Johnson the Texans have plenty of surrounding talent including Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, and Kevin Walter. The Texans should be able to move the ball and score enough on Cinci in this one to keep it close. I also think Houston has a good chance to get the running game going this week, as the Bengals are not very stout against the run. We saw a lot of bad tackling on the part of the Bengals last week too!
Carson Palmer is an excellent QB, so I expect him to have success in this one, but that's not where Houston is vunerable. Houston struggles against the run and Cedric Benson has had a hell of year. So here's the question, why the hell do I like the Texans in this one? Cincinnati has come off 4 emotional wins in a row, especially last week against the Ravens. Look what happened to this team after their win against the Steelers, they almost lost to the helpless Browns. The Texans are much, much better than Cleveland. 90% of the action in this game is on Cincinnati probably because of last week and the fact that they're playing at home. I'm betting on a let down this week and not only a Texans +5 cover, but an outright Houston victory!
Houston Texans +215
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Originally Posted by pimike
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