[keel44]

O.K. I am lazy. I was looking into a little technique. The way I figure it. The NFL lines are really really sharp.

The way NFL games can go.... penalties, fumbles, tipped balls, missed tackles, you name it. I was going to take the underdog moneyline of every game +6.5 to +1. So I looked at previous years, I just eyeballed over the results. I thought it was pretty darn good. If I need a slight money management technique instead of flat betting, so be it.

So, I was wondering if anybody wants to back test this with the closing line of course. You can pm me or post here. I would be willing to pay for your efforts. Maybe somebody already has this data and my theory is a losing one, I don't know?


my would be signature: "Press when your hot, chase when your not"

[keel44]

O.K. after further looking, it seems that maybe it will be 40%. 40% may even be pushing it. I thought it would be better, but what do I know.

[chopperocker]

Road Dogs are 29-28 SU when facing a Pre-BYE week Home Fav since '08. try running your query from +6.5 to +2.5 on Road Dogs and you should get better results. NFC East Dogs vs NFC East have good SU results in recent years also.