Hey everyone. Here are the remaining picks I made today, with the analysis made from my capper. Good luck to everyone!

Washington @ Carolina: Pick Panthers @ +4 1.0 Units Bet

My Spread: 6.5. Over the past 7 seasons a 0-3 team has never been favored over a team that is 2-2. There was a 0-4 team favored over a 2-2 back in week 5 of 2005 (GB -3), and the Packers won 52-3. The fact that the Redskins are not in 2nd place in the NFC East at 3-1 has a lot to do with this. Three of their first four opponents were St. Louis, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. They barely got past the Rams (9-7) and the Bucs (16-13.) Of course, nobody could forget breaking the Lions losing streak (19-14.) You may be thinking 'well, the Panthers are still 0-3.' That is true, but when you look at their schedule at least their record makes sense. The only real concern for the Panthers has to be containing Clinton Portis. The Redskins win the overwhelming majority of games when he gains over 100 yards, and vice versa. I believe they can contain him despite the fact their season average is over 180 rushing yards allowed per game. Statistics are not always as clear cut as we would like. For example, the number of sacks a team has is usually used to show how much pressure a defense can bring. However, there are many ways that this stat can be skewed. The fact that they were playing with large leads allowed all three opponents to keep the ball on the ground all game. In fact, Carolina's opponents have averaged nearly 34 rushes per game. That is the 3rd highest avg in the NFL, behind the Bucs and Raiders. Washington has not had an early lead all season, not even against the Bucs. That should force them to give up on the run by halftime. I am not expecting a stellar performance from the Panthers, but there is plenty of reason to doubt the Redskins ability to stay in this game.

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs: Pick Chief @ +7.5 0.5 Units Bet

My spread: 4.5 - 5. This is a team that has not proven that it is able to win, or even cover a game this season. However, there is so much information to support this bet that we have to get at least ½ unit in on it. In order to silence some skeptics I would like to share some info with you on similarly terrible teams in the recent past. The Chiefs currently have a 0-4 record and are 0-4 ATS. Underdogs with a 0-4 record straight up have covered 70% of the time, and are 4-0 when dogs at home. Dogs with a 0-4 record ATS have covered 81%, and are 3-0 when dogs at home. When you combine these two statistics and research teams that are 0-4 straight up and ATS they cover 83%, and are 2-0 when dogs at home. This is just the beginning of a long list of reasons to bet the Chiefs.

Tampa Bay Bucs @ Philadelphia Eagles: Pick Eagles @ -15 0.5 Units Bet

High spreads in the NFL usually stay solid or trend downward (like the Giants game this week.) This game was off the board for the first few days, and then after it opened up at 14.5 it has continued to go up as high as 15.5. What I find interesting is that all of TB spreads have been set between 4.5-7.5. Even after Dallas blew them out in Tampa as a 5.5 point favorite, the Giants came to town favored by only 1 more point (6.5). Over the past three weeks the Bucs have been dogged by more points in each game (4.5 - 6.5 - 7.5.) However, last week they finally performed well and almost beat the Redskins, and now the spread literally DOUBLES. That is a huge jump, but there is good reason for it. The Tampa Bay defense is at the bottom of the league in several important statistical categories that should allow the rejuvenated Eagles to have their way with them. The QB rating against the Bucs is 101.1 (3rd highest in NFL) yards per pass 8.6 (31st) Net Yards 393 (31st) Rush yards per game 172 (30), just to name a few.