This Weeks "David vs Goliath" in the NFL and NCAA Football

September 29th 2009
This Weeks "David vs Goliath" in the NFL and NCAA Football:

There are some huge favorites on the board this week in both college and the pros. Now the question is, which ones are going to cover and which ones dont stand a chance. Handicappers have put out a couple of over-inflated lines in which they know the public is going to pound away at without batting an eye, our jobs is to beat these numbers they put out. There are a couple of surprising lines out there, but on the flip side there are a couple of very very soft lines. As always, there are some solid lines to stay away from, as they offer no real value in betting either side. So lets jump into some of these lines, starting with College Football.

Soft under-inflated line = Miami-Ohio Redhawks vs Cincinatti Bearcats -28 *2 Units*

This is a WAY under-inflated line. The bookmakers are trying to tell us that the Redhawks are going to cover a 28 point spread? Lets look at why this line isnt enough for Miami-Ohio. First off, the Redhawks have yet to score more then 26 points in any game yet this year, they have scored a total of 45 total in all 4 games so far combined, thats only 10.125 ppg. They are 0-4 SU and ATS so far this season, and have been shut out by Kentucky 42-0 and Boise St 48-0. Now Cincinatti on the other hand are coming off of a close game against Fresno St. The game was sloppy and shouldnt have been as close as the score would have you believe, Cincinatti has always rebounded in a good way from a close game that should have been a blowout. This line is a gift, thanks to the close game last week in the 28-20 win vs Fresno. This line should be closer to the -32 mark. Cincinatti wins handily 45-10

Soft under-inflated line = Utah St vs BYU -24 *2 Units*

Utah St has not won at BYU since 1993. This BYU in my eyes is slightly better then last years team, despite the record. BYU will need to bounce back huge from their loss early in the season. Utah St is just going to be a speedbump on BYU's quest to get into the top 10 ASAP. This game wont be as close as the -24 line the cappers put out. Utah St 17 BYU 52

Over-Inflated line = New Mexico *2 Units* vs Texas Tech -35

Texas Tech played a very physical and no huddle, fast paced offense vs Houston last week. By the end of that game, the Red Raiders defense could barely walk off of the field. Now they face the same no huddle offense in New Mexico, mind you NM is no where near as good as Houston. Texas Tech would love for this week to be their bye week, and could use the rest. But back to back games vs fast paced offenses NEVER works out for a favorite with such a huge number. Texas Techs defense will still be feeling the effects of their last game, and will keep their offense on the field as much as possible. Look for Tech to run more then usual, and burn the clock. The UNDER is also a very very great play in this scenerio. New Mexico 16 Texas Tech 38

Solid stay away lines =
Virginia vs North Carolina -14
NorthWestern vs Purdue -7

Now there are quite a few large lines this week in the NFL. This is the first turn in the NFL season that seperates the Contenders from the Pretenders. Last week there were a couple of upsets that we didnt see, and there was 1 we all could see coming (The Lions winning SU). There is another upset brewing in the NFL for week 4, and also a solid line or 2.

Under-inflated line = Cincinatti Bengals -5.5 vs Cleveland Browns *5 Units*
This years Browns team is last years Lions team. They have a 3rd string back-up starting, and two 2nd strings sitting on the bench. They have no offensive weapons, and their defense is horrid. There is nothing to like about this yeam, and they aew only getting +5.5 points? On the flip side, the Bengals are on a roll, and objects in motion stay in motion. This team should be 3-0 this year, and they are coming off a huge win vs the defending Super Bowl Champs. This is a line that should have opened closer to -9 or -10, but you have to look at the linesmakers reasoning ... This is the Bengals, when was the last time the Bengals have been a -10 point favorite? This line is soft until the Bengals can continue to prove they are for real. Give up the -6, as they score a touchdown in their first series. This game is the easiest game of the week to make your money on. Im playing it HUGE and making it the biggest play all weekend. Cincinatti Bengals 31 Cleveland Browns 13

Under-inflated line = New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints -6.5 *2 Units*

Who Dem Saints? Those are the Saints that are going to be sending the Jets home on Sunday evening with a loss. Of course, the Jets D is for real, but the Saints offense is also. The Jets have a medicore Offense and a starting rookie QB, and the Saints defense is practically non-existant. But you have to remember, the Saints are at home, and Brees can pick apart any defense on any day. The Jets are on the road, and their defense comes back down to earth this week, as Brees starts to pick it apart early, and the Jets D starts to question itself. It could get out of hand if the Jets offense isnt able to keep up with the Saints. Im predicting it wont, cause something has to give between these 2 teams, and you are really betting on 2 things here. Drew Brees or the Jets Defense. Im going with Drew Brees. NY Jets 24 New Orleans Saints 41

Over-inflated line = Washington Redskins -7 vs Tampa Bay Buccs *2 Units*

Like last week when I said the Redskins wont win in Detriot, Im close to saying that they wont win in TB either. Im not going to predict a win for TB here. But these 2 teams are HORRIBLE. I do think the Bucs have a better chance for a SU Win here as they are at home, even though they are in the midst of a QB contraversy. I just dont see laying -7 on the Redskins who cant even score a touchdown in the past 3 games, let alone on the road. Look for sloppy play, and for this game to have more scoring on defense then on offense. Washington Redskins 13 Tampa Bay Bucs 16

Solid stay away lines =
SD Chargers vs Pitt Steelers -6.5 (Which team actually shows up?)
Oakland Raiders vs Houston Texans -9.5

Lets cash in again this week like we did last week. Am here to give you the perspective I have on the games for this week, so we can all hurt the books wallet for a 4th straight week. Lets cash guys!

PayingTheJuice