[Chance Harper]

Brady and Patriots brace for Baltimore Ravens

In what could be an AFC Championship preview, Tom Brady and New England will host Ray Lewis and Balitmore this Sunday at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. Brady and the Patriots eased past Atlanta last Sunday for a 26-10 win and have seen their original 3-point chalk in this one bet down to just one. Meanwhile the Ravens come in off a 34-3 thrashing of the Browns, holding Cleveland to under 200 yards of offense.


Let’s see if you can survive this one, Mr. Brady.

Those pesky New England Patriots just don’t seem to know when their so-called dynasty is over. Just when all seemed dark – a defense with more questions than answers, a shaky offensive line – New England’s old guard came up vintage against the young Atlanta Falcons. Brady hooked up with Randy Moss for 10 of his 25 completions that covered 277 yards in total, Fred Taylor rushed 21 times for 105 yards, and the Patriots (-4.5 at home) pulled away in the second half en route to a 26-10 victory.

So the City of Boston should get back to preparing for the Super Bowl parade, yes? They’ll just have to ignore the fact that the Pats aren’t the SBXLIV favorites anymore. That honor goes to the Baltimore Ravens, whose betting odds have shortened from 11-1 at the open to 6-1. New England is now second best on the futures market at 13-2, down a tick from 6-1 at the open and as low as 4-1 before the start of the regular season. The Ravens were available at 18-1 just a few short weeks ago.

Baltimore continues to have the benefit of the doubt, judging by the fact that the Patriots are as low as 1-point home faves this Sunday afternoon (1:00 p.m. Eastern, CBS) on their own turf in Foxborough, down from three points at the open. The very early consensus reports show 60 percent support for the visiting Ravens; they’re one of four teams to start the 2009 campaign at 3-0 SU and ATS – the Jets, Broncos and Saints are the others. New England is now 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS as we head into October.

This will be the second week in a row that the Patriots have to contend with one of the rarest of success stories: a quarterback who flourished in his rookie season. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan actually played well in Week 3: 17-for-28 and pick-free, but only 199 yards passing and zero touchdowns. Michael Jenkins had a catch in the end zone overturned for offensive pass interference. The Falcons had their problems on the run, where Michael Turner carried 15 times for just 56 yards and coughed up a fumble for the second week in a row. But mostly it was Brady and Friends holding possession for nearly 40 minutes that kept Ryan from working his magic.

This week, it’ll be Joe Flacco taking his shots against what still is a suspect New England defense. Flacco “earned” the reputation of being a management-style QB last year, throwing 14 TD passes (with 12 picks) while the running game and Ray Lewis dominated the headlines. Forget that. Flacco has a howitzer for an arm and has already found the end zone six times this year with just two interceptions and three sacks. His QB rating of 101.4 is fifth in the NFL, just ahead of Ryan at 100.4. Brady is ranked No. 22 with a 79.9 rating.

Let’s not get caught up too much in those gaudy numbers, though. It’s early, and two of Baltimore’s games were at home against the Chiefs and Browns – two rebuilding teams with a whole lot of work left in front of them. But this New England team is also rebuilding on defense. That project took a hit when LB Jerod Mayo (sprained knee) was lost in the season opener, and it took a second hit when NT Vince Wilfork sprained his left ankle in the first half versus the Falcons. Word is he’ll be fine for Week 4, but Mayo is still a way’s away.

Wilfork had better be okay, because he’s about to encounter arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. The strength of the Baltimore running attack is twofold. First, it’s a group of talented linemen that now features Harvard alum Matt Birk at center, plus the one and only Michael Oher already steamrolling opponents at right tackle. Second, it’s the versatility of handing the ball to any of Willis McGahee, Ray Rice or 260-pound fullback Le’Ron McClain, who is being used as more of a blocker this year while McGahee (hardly a small man at 6-foot and 235 pounds) enjoys a revival of sorts. Ball possession should be in Baltimore’s favor this time. And that should be the difference in Week 4.

[Redchevy]

Good luck with your play. Just don't forget 2 of the Ravens wins came against 2 of the worst Teams in the NFL, Cleveland and KC, who put up 24 points in a losing effort. In their 3rd win SD put up 26 and if not for a bad 4th down play call, may have won the game outright. NEs' offense struggled against the Jets without Welker, who was a gametime scratch, yet held Sanchez to 1 touchdown. Against the very well playing Falcons, NEs' offense picked it up somewhat, again without Welker, and they won by 16. They have had redzone issues that Brady is pissed about and he is determined to fix them. Their D held Ryan to 0 touchdowns. The defense has not recieved the credit it deserves, as everyone is focused on Bradys' return. Baltimore has no cakewalk here, they will get their points but so will NE. NE is at home, and Welker should be back. If they iron out the redzone issues, this could get ugly early. 3-0 means nothing here with the schedule Baltimore has played.