Well usually I dont touch props since the juice is so high, but I see some great prop advantage plays in tonights games. These plays are so +EV That I can near guarantee these plays will overall return a win.
These lines all from thegreek.
#1. Total punts UNDER 10 1/2 -140
How in the world can this game be lining at 10 1/2 punts ? I see more like 6 or 7. We are going to see long drives and few defensive stops. The total is near 50. Is that conducive to 10 1/2 punts ? NO way. Carolina and Delhomme have to slow it down and run it a little. They are going to keep the clock moving and try to keep the Cowboys and Romo off the field. Long, time consuming drives at least when the Panthers have the ball. Neither defense has shown anything this year so I dont see these Defense's coming up with 11 stops anyway. They would need near 15 or 16 stops to produce 11 punts. IT WONT HAPPEN. This is the single best prop play.
4.2 units to win 3 units UNDER 10 1/2 PUNTS.
#2. NO score in first 7 30 of game +160
There could easily be no score for much of the same reasons. These teams, especially Carolina will try to run the ball. I think this play has better than a 50% chance of hitting if the Panthers get the ball first. Either way, at +160 it is definitly +EV. This play may lose, I would say its a 50/50 but you gotta love it getting it at +160.
1 unit to win 1.6 units
#3. Carolina's last score of game will be TOUCHDOWN -185
Cant be scared of the heavy -185 here. This play is screaming +EV. The Panthers arent going to be kicking field goals in the second half. This applies whether they are winning or losing the game. Here we have a -185 line on a play that will hit 85% of the time in this spot. I dont see the logic in the linesmakers thinking this is a -185 play. Only going to hit 63% of the time ??? Thats crazy. This game isnt lined as a PK.
1.85 units to win 1 unit
#4. More points scored in the Second Half + OT +1/2 +110
Wow. This is darn near a bad line. I guess the thinking is that the Cowboys will be up 28-7 at half and then it will be a stall game in the second half. I dont think that is going to happen. I would love this play at -110, I totally love it at +110. This play is very +EV. We are getting the second half and overtime and 1/2 point and +110. This could be a bad line, but that is what is listed at the greek right now. Just an overall great play here. This is my second favorite of the 4 props.
2 units to win 2.2 units
Some of these plays might lose, but overall this will return positive units. I can near guarantee these 4 props win more units than they lose. I am counting this in my record as either 1 win or 1 loss. If the 4 plays together result in positive units it is 1 win, if they result in negative units its a loss. Not 4 wins or 4 losses either way. 1 play regardless of outcome.
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Cowboys/ panthers prop plays
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