I'm going to document my picks here, feel free to tail or fade. I don't have my record posted because I wasn't keeping good track the first couple of weeks of this season. I'll start fresh here and perhaps I'll go back through my receipts from the last two weeks and catch up. Off the top of my head I have been about break even on sides and totals. I made some profit but lost it on parlays.
My money-management strategy is to use a steady 1 Unit per game. I will rate these plays on a three for my own thought process and record keeping, but I will only be wagering 1 Unit per wager.
My initial leans posted yesterday are here NFL Week 3 Leans (all games) - Input/Feedback but I am going to post my final picks in this thread. I'm going to go through the games one at a time and post my pick and weight as I arrive at it.
TEN@NYJ-2 - Gotta love the Jets right now, but TEN is in a tight spot, must win.
I'm not going to wager on the spread. There's too much uncertainty on where these teams are really at. NYJ lost a low-scorer to NE last week, and TEN blew a big lead against HOU last week. We need to see how both of these teams respond to adversity this year. TEN has a divisional game against JAX next week. We'd like to think they aren't looking ahead, but with a 0-2 start they might be getting all worked up already and looking ahead. I'd say put something on the TEN +110, but that's just not a good enough value here.
It's raining all day in Jersey today. TEN is going to come out swinging hard, whether the win or not. With all of this considered, and Sanchez still being a rookie - the UNDER 36.5 is a solid bet.
UNDER 36.5 -110
RECAP:
TEN 17
NYJ 22C - 41
TEN beat NYJ in almost every stat, including penalty yards. Except TEN had 2 fumbles early in the game, NYJ 1 from Sanchez beg 2nd.
Last edited by Mr Winters; 09-28-09 at 09:36 AM.
Reason: Game Analysis
JAX@TEX-3.5 - Division game., JAX is 0-2 and needs this win, but they are a weak tem right now. TEX has some passing weapons. ARI crushed JAX D last week puttin' up 31, and though Manning&Co only put up 14 on them Week 1, I think this is more a function of IND struggles. TEX won a high-scorer @ TEN last week.
Neither of these teams are Defensive powerhouses, and I think TEX has the distinct Offensive advantage. I wouldn't touch the +/- because we don't know how JAX O is going to perform against TEX porous secondary, but I like TEX to cover -3.5.
My line moved to -4 in the last few minutes. I think this is a good sign, but gonna have to reduce my weight on the play.
KAS@PHI-9 - I don't want to touch PHI right now until I see how Reid is acting with his O. Really excited in general about this game, but I don't think I'm ready to lay 9pts hangin' here. Sure KAS sucks, and it'd be nice to think PHI D (and special teams) is gonna redeem themselves this week. Lean on the UNDER -39.5, but if PHI is cruisin' against a weak KC and trying out some new toys - they might blow it up and crush KC, or have a hard time capitalizing while their trying out their new toys. I lean toward them not capitalizing as easy. As far as KAS scoring points. . . they put up 24 on BAL and 10 on OAK. Huh?
The +/- came down to 38.5 today. Its raining here in SE PA today, and supposed to start kicking up around 2:00P. I'm looking for PHI D to come out smash-mouth to redeem themselves from last week's blow out v NO, but also for them to have a hard time racking up a lot of points while they experiment.
CLE@BAL-13.5 - That's a lot of points to lay. BAL has been cruisin' pretty good but easily could let up against a perceived weak opponent. Yeah, everyone says Quinn is the crappiest QB in the league, but CLE needs a win bad and Quinn&Co. did manage to rack up plenty of 1st-Downs and put up 20 on a not-too-bad MIN D. BAL wouldn't have covered this spread in their KC matchup at home week 1.
In this interesting divisional game with these two teams and their "history," I'm not going to touch the +/-.
That's too many points to lay for BAL. I'm gonna take the Contrarian pick and go
NYG@TAM+6.5 - NYG has been hot, too hot. Plus they are banged up worse than almost anyone in the league. Coming off a big NationalTV win (understatement) - lean has to go to TB who need the win. Yeah, NYG travels well, but they're banged up and have KC away next week. Maybe they think they're on a little east street. . . Meanwhile TAM has WAS next week, they're 0-2 and know they need to get pumped up and they CAN win these two games.
(Line has come down in NYG favor, I'm taking that as a good sign. I got in at +6.5, but I'm lowering my weighting for the +6)
+/- is at 46. . . With NYG Defensive injuries I definitely like TAM to keep it close and score some points. TAM's D is not heroic, though, and NYG will probably also be able to score some points. 46. . . I lean on the OVER but. . . okay, the OVER
WAS@DET+6.5 - I'm taking DET. Mostly a philosophy pick. Portis is out, BTW. If they get blown up, look out Tampa Bay consecutive loss record! DET's gonna take that from you this year! I think DET will actually get it done at home, and WAS is gonna have a LONG rest of the year.
The line has come down today in WAS's favor (I got in at 6.5), so I'm taking that as a good sign. I'm putting a play on the DET M/L as well.
GBP@STL-6.5 - Hmmmmm. . . seems like this spread should be taking at least 1 or 2 more points from GBP. . . probably a good game to look at any RLM. There's something here smells funny.
SF@MIN-7 - I wouldn't touch this game. I think SF is under-rated right now, but I watch AP run last week and that dude is riddigerous. Farve is doing exactly what he should be doing and MIN D kicked it in last week after being down at 1/2 @ DET.
No play - Want to see how good SF is right now. Good test for SF.
ATL@NE-4.5 - I don't want to touch this game, either. NE has to get on a roll if they want to make something out of this season, but ATL is hot and motivated right now. I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole.
It's gonna rain a lot in Foxboro today. Between this, Brady's struggles, I don't see any glaring mis-matches, etc, UNDER 45.5 is solid. If Brady lights it up or NE D falls asleep (doubt that highly), oh well.
CHI@SEA+2 - So CHI beats PGH, Cutler is looking pretty decent (even though he's a punk), Hasselbeck goes down, the rest of SEA is in the infirmary or close, and their only taking 2 pts. Maybe this seems to easy but I'm all over CHI-2 here.
+/- is at 37.5. . . this also seems low. But my matchup analysis tells me this game should be even UNDER that. Neither of these teams have shown us that either 1) their defenses are weak or 2) they can offensively put up a lot of points. Should be easier to score on CHI for SEA, but they weren't putting up lots of points with Hesselbeck. Wallace isn't too bad, but we can't expect him to light it up against CHI, either.
NO@BUF+6 - Wow. Another hot potato. Brees is in pretty good form (HAHAHAHAHA!!!!), but I think BUF is under-rated as a team and they're at home. Y'know, this is all about BUF's D. Can they pressure Brees (PHI couldn't)? If BUF D doesn't have the skills, NO is gonna keep rollin'. Of course they might be looking ahead to NYJ next week, but I also think they are on fire and confidence is sky-high.
I don't like this game. NO-6 looks like the bet, but I just don't know. This is gonna tell is a lot about where NO is really at. The +/- is 51 which is too high for me to take the over. This oughta be a good game to watch.
MIA@SDC-5.5 - I think SD is over-rated big-time. MIA is under-rated, even though they're gaining some respect. I know MIA is trying to find their Offensive idenity, but they're gonna find it vs SDC and here's why. MIA can run it and SDC can't stop the run. My prediction is MIA controls possession and at least keeps it close. MIA needs the win more and maybe SDC already is thinking about heading East to take on PGH next week. Plus, did I mention SDC is just plain over-rated. We'll see. Gotta go with MIA+5.5 here.
PIT@CIN+3.5 - What is this, a joke? I feel bad for CIN, I really do, but PIT is gonna get it done without much issue. Polumalu or no, though I'm sure they miss him dearly. CIN will keep it within a TD or 10, but not 4. Steelers are gonna be mad just because they have to go to Cincinnati the town. They're not gonna do it for nuthin', not after CHI takin' it to them last week - not after they let Reed lose that for them.
The line moved in to give CIN .5 less point, and they want to charge me -130. I'm gonna take that as a good sign, even though the juice hurts.
Because this is a divisional rivalry and I'm going against the home dog, only one
DEN@OAK+2 - hmmmmmmm. . . this is all about the matchups, gotta look into it further. . . after looking into it further, this game bores the crap out of me. I can't tell if OAK is under-rated or they just stink. Maybe DEN looks ahead to DAL next week and overlooks OAK. I'd put a play on OAK M/L +110 if there was more value.
IND@ARI-3 - Look for ARI to get it done in dramatic fashion at home. They're pumped for this season and IND is the other way around. IND is off a short week after a tight win last Monday. I just have a feeling IND can't get it together this year, or not this week anyway in ARI.
+/- is 48.5 - I'm over analyzing which way this could go so I'm not gonna play it.
TEN beat NYJ in almost every stat, including penalty yards. Except turnovers. TEN lost two fumbles, Sanchez had 2 but one was recovered. Collins threw two picks, one near the end of the game, Sanchez threw one late also, Collins pick was on the next possession. This could have gone either way, really. Homefield for the NYJ might have contributed to their cover, but probably not the W.
Not sure what to attribute the +36.5 right now. Could have been a number of factors. Both teams' passing yards ~150, and rushing ~100. NYJ had 83 rushing.
HOU lost this game on penalties, and getting run on pretty bad. Schaub had a good passer rating, and 300 yards in the air. I'd say HOU was overrated in this spot, we'll see how they respond. CAR ran the ball very well.
As far as the spread, KC stinks. They also killed themselves with penalties with 10 for 90yds. And as for the +/-, it didn't rain that much during the game, and Kalb had a very respectable game, 120.6 QB rating.
Obviously this was not too many points to lay. The +/- opened at 39 and closed at 37, a push. Flacco finished this game with 111.8 QB rating. Not too shaby.
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for my own thought process and record keeping, but I will only be wagering 1 Unit per wager.
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