[lid73]

Hi folks. Was unable to post last week, as my wife and I had our first child on the 27th. It is truly awesome and a bit surreal having a child. I am 33 years old, but feel (and act, sometimes) like I am still an 18 year old kid. Now, all of the sudden, I am responsible for an entire other person. A daunting task, but a fun one nonetheless. We had a little girl at 1:16 AM on the 27th. I get a nice tax break for the year.

As to the purpose of this forum, I ended up going 3-2. I took Wash, NE, and CLE. all three of these on the money line. I took the money line for the value it presented. I thought that Washington really had a great chance, and CLE was definitely better than the +200 they were being offered. Anyway those went 1-2. I also took Det and SF. I WISH I had taken the money line here. I would have ended up with an 11 or 12 unit profit. Instead I cleared about 1.4.

As to week 18, I am looking at the following games:

KC 6.5 Ind - I don't think Indy will go that deep this year with their weak run defense. However, I think they will win their first game. KC is monstrous running, but I think that Indy gets them in a shootout. I can see this being a 38-28 game with lots of fun offense to watch.

Dal +3 Sea - Looking at the Dallas ML here. At +135, I think this is good value. Seattle gets a little too much love at home sometimes. I think this should be a pickem game. Dallas looked like crap last week, but Parcells will be ready for the playoffs. I am a little nervous about the (essentially) rookie QB, and the drop factory known as Terrell Owens. However, Romo is not really a rookie, and hopefully will show some poise.

NYJ +9.5 NE - The Jets have gotten no credit all year. they have played tough, and of all the teams in the NFL, probably know the Pats the best. I am taking the Jets ML at +350. This will sound crazy, but I can see the Jets going to the superbowl this year. The pats may win here, but 350 is too good a price to pass up in my opinion.


Anyway, comments always appreciated. Good luck to all, and hopefully some of you are sleeping even if I am not!!!

[primo_skillz]

I like your Jets play. What do you think of the Philadelphia game? The line is currently at PHI -6.5. Is that half point hook supposed to entice people to play them? With 83% of the money on the favs early, I kind of like the G-Men in this position. They have a good team when they want to come out and play as one.

[rta21]

i just cant bet on the boys right now, they lost to the lions at home and have to go to a very rowdy place, with homo as qb i just cant

[AC1318]

i would have to take the giants plus the 6.5, 7 by game time
jets plus 9.5

As for the eagles I would rather play dallas at home than the giants here.
giants are not bad enough to be a dog this big

[Ponies101]

First things first, congrats on becoming a father for the first time!

I think the Patriots are headed to the Super Bowl again, but I also think your ML bet on the Jets is a good one.

Jets +9 1/2 just seems like such a crummy number to me. A backdoor cover is going to be very tough to get, since Pats aren't likely to ease up unless it's a 3 possession game. Since the minimum for 3 possession game is a 17 point lead, a last-minute TD doesn't do it. If the Jets are keeping it close, then they are one play away from a +350 return instead of a +91 return. Win or lose I think you have to take your shot with a potential return that is nearly 4 times greater.

The toughest possible outcome of a Jets ML bet would be if Jets are leading something like 17-13 with 5 minutes left, and then the Patriots drive and score a TD with 25 seconds left in the game. The ones who took Jets +9 1/2 are collecting, while the ones holding Jets ML tickets are So for Jets ML backers, this becomes the most difficult moment in gambling - telling yourself you made the right play in the long run, while watching others cashing their winnings. SO tough.

To analyze a bit further, let's say the Jets are leading 17-13 with 5 minutes left in the game, the Jets +9 1/2 backers will probably cash 97% of the time. Just for the sake of argument, lets say this situation came up 100 times, and the Jets covered the spead 100% of the time. So at $100 bet at -110, you'll get back

($100 bet + $91 profit) x 100 =$19,100 returned. for +9 1/2 backers.

To make as much for ML backers, the Jets would need to hold on to the lead appx 43 of 100 times

($100 bet + $350 profit) x 43 = $19,350

So the question becomes, if the Jets are up 17-13 with 5 minutes to go, how often would you expect them to keep the Pats out of the end zone? If your gut says closer to 60 out of a 100 times, then the ML backers would get back

($100 bet + $350 profit) x 60 = $27,000!!! in 100 tries

It's so, so tough to lose a bet and then say it's OK I did the right thing, especially while watching those around you cash their tickets, but I think you have to do it to give yourself a chance to be profitable over the long haul, and this definitely looks like one of those situations. Anyway, GL with your bets.

[Taxt]

Philly fan here, as such I try to stay away from betting on the Eagles 'cause of blind faith. That said, I put my money on the Eagles this time around.

Since McNabb went down the Eagles have been a completely different team. Their O line is vicious when run blocking (finally getting the chance) and Garcia won't throw the game away, unlike Eli who I think can and will.

Eagles also have been better at stopping the run lately (in part due to them running the ball and controlling TOP more), and they have done a good job stopping Tiki this year. First game against the Eagles Tiki had 51 yards rushing (2.4 y/a) and the second game he had 75 (3.9 y/a). He did get 50+ yards in the first game recieving, though recieving yards don't hurt the Eagles as much as rushing... trust me on that.

The only way I see the Giants keeping it within 7 is if Tiki goes off for 150+ rushing yards. Then they could easily win the game let alone cover. Like I said could be the blind faith talking, but I don't see it happening.

I also like the Chiefs, I think they'll control the clock with LJ and keep Manning off the field. I'm staying away from the Cowgirls game, and as much as I want to bet on the Jets I don't have the balls to go against the Pats in the playoffs.

[lid73]

Ponies:

I went through a similar analysis, but you are starting off with the assumption that the Jets will be leading. I simply placed a probability of winning on the team. Given that this is a playoff game, and the Pats are a tough home team, I give the Jets about a 1 in 3 chance of winning. At 33%, anything over a +200 is profitable in the long run. I agree that it is very tough to watch your money line dog cover, but not win. however, this situation rarely occurs. When you are getting this kind of return, you don't mind losing a few that would have cashed.

Primo:

The Philly game seems to indicate that the books are drooling for Philly bets. I always look at the other side when a game opens at -2.5 or -6.5. Those numbers have great psychological value, and entice the common bettor. I think this line is shaded to attract Philly action. I will probably lay off this game, but if I played, I would wait until close to game time to hopefully get the 7 and take the Giants. A ML bet on the giants may also be a good thing here.

Speaking of books shading lines, here is a very interesting article worth a look: http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levi...arkets2004.pdf

The guy is an economist at University of Chicago. Interesting conclusions.

[Poker Pirate]

This week has some intresting games (was so glad broncos lost made for great matchups), but tough to get a good handle on most, at least for me. I like the jets, a small wager on the ml for me, and some on the spread +9.5, but its gettin worse. Usually dont like teasers, but liking a the playoff big dog specail Jets +19.5 KC +17 giants +17

[Redchevy]

Carefull with the Jets game, there's a reason the books have it at the number they do, they can see it a mile away. Belichick is NOT going to take his foot off the gas here! I'm smelling BLOWOUT Pats 37-17.

[Razz]

Congrats lid! I am probably going to play Indy and Dallas as well. Best of luck.

[ChrisV]

I think 1 in 3 chance of Jets winning is being quite generous...perhaps 1 in 4 at best, but I would put it at about 1 in 5.

But we all have our own opinions and if you think it is 1 in 3 then a moneyline bet indeed would be a good play for you.

I am liking the Giants +7 if I can get it, or moneyline perhaps too. KC moneyline as well(not spread, because i think they will either upset or lose by a decent number...Colts close wins are a rarity especially in playoffs).

[Checkerboard]

I think 1 in 3 chance of Jets winning is being quite generous...perhaps 1 in 4 at best, but I would put it at about 1 in 5.

But we all have our own opinions and if you think it is 1 in 3 then a moneyline bet indeed would be a good play for you.

I am liking the Giants +7 if I can get it, or moneyline perhaps too. KC moneyline as well(not spread, because i think they will either upset or lose by a decent number...Colts close wins are a rarity especially in playoffs).

Yes, I think there's good value in NYG +7. Aren't some of their
wounded walking again? I plan to look more at this one in particular.

[VegasDave]

The problem with betting the Giants is that you are counting on Eli Manning to go into Philadelphia, in the playoffs, and not make the mistakes he's made all year.

Here's how I'm calling it (from my football column)...

#6 Kansas City 9 - 7 (+7.0) @ #3 Indianapolis 12 - 4 (-7.0)
In what will certainly be a popular upset pick, one of the league's best running backs in Larry Johnson will go against the league's worst rushing defense. As simple as this looks on paper, the fact of the matter is that Kansas City will have no answer for Indianapolis's offense, either. So, does that mean I'm expecting a shootout? No. I'm going against logic here and saying that the Colts' defense, at home, in the playoffs, finds a way to pull itself together and have a big game. Will they completely contain LJ? Highly unlikely. But I think they'll do enough to keep the game a TD or more apart, and furthermore, keep the total of the game under 51.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 51: UNDER

#5 Dallas 9 - 7 (+3.0) @ #4 Seattle 9 - 7 (-3.0)
This game is a disaster waiting to happen, with two of the most unpredictable teams in the game going against eachother. I'm giving Seattle the edge for a few reasons. The biggest one being that the game is in Seattle, and that could potentially rattle Romo a bit, especially considering that this team is the defending NFC champion and knows how to play in the playoffs. Besides that, if you look over the Cowboys season, of their 9 wins only one came against a team above .500 (Indy)... they haven't really been tested. They have been playing terribly, and while Seattle isn't much safer of a bet, I'll take my chances on them. One thing seems pretty obvious though - expect a lot of points, because Dallas hasn't stopped anyone lately, and if anything they still know how to put points on the board.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
OVER/UNDER 46.5: OVER

SUNDAY

#5 New York Jets 10 - 6 (+8.5) @ #4 New England 12 - 4 (-8.5)
These two teams will meet for the third time this season, and for the third time this season, the Jets are heavy underdogs. In their last meeting, the Jets beat the Patriots; and stunningly enough, it was in New England. But this is the playoffs, and that changes everything... but it's hard to tell in who's favor. On one side, you've got the Patriots, perennial playoff contenders over the last 5 years or so... they know how to play in the playoffs, and they've got a QB who knows how to win. Plus, they are at home, which should make them even more comfortable. But the dangerous thing about this game is how easy it appears to be; ALL of the pressure is on the Patriots because everyone KNOWS they are going to win. No one but Jet fans will be picking the Jets. They are the underdog's underdog, and that should make them a lot looser and potentially dangerous. I'm not brave enough to pick against New England in New England IN the playoffs... but I do expect a low scoring, intense game between these two teams, and 8.5 points is far too many to pass on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 37.5: UNDER

#6 New York Giants 8 - 8 (+7.0) @ #3 Philadelphia 10 - 6 (-7.0)
I've got this feeling in my gut that the Giants are going to win this game. It has nothing to do with stats or momentum - Philadelphia holds the edge in both of those categories by a mile. I'm just terrified that the Giants are going to piece it all together this week and stupidly beat the Eagles. All that said, I'm not a COMPLETE moron (even if I am a bit of one). Philadelphia has taken their game to the next level, and a lot of these guys are no strangers to the playoffs either. Besides, the odds of the Giants as a team or Eli alone collapsing are SO much higher than the Eagles doing so. I'll assume my gut feeling is just something I ate, and take the Eagles.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
OVER/UNDER 46.5: OVER

Sure to be disasterous, taking all favorites, but after much research and thought, that's what I've got.

[Dark Horse]

Terrible wild card round. Not one impressive team.
Probably will only bet against KC, perhaps against SEA as well.

Tossing in some totals.
Under for the Indy game, but waiting for 52.
Over 37 for Pats, and Over 46.5 for Seattle.

[AC1318]

seattle ML
colts ML
new england -9.5
giants +7