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Why I respect Jarhead..
FROM JARHEAD:
I am 66 years old and retired. I worked in various jobs in marketing management for a textile firm and had a business importing furniture from China. My education is in accounting, finance and economics.
My contest record goes back to 1998, and shows a just under 60% win rate.
Place shown if in the money. Pushes not counted.
Year won lost Notes
1998 MicroBros 68 41 3th place
2000 Hilton 52 33 8th place
2001 Hilton 47 35 17th place
2002 Hilton 51 34 13th place(Station 2sd)
2003 Hilton 51 28 3th place(station first)
2004 Hilton 44 39 out of money
2005 Hilton 36 26 out of money
2006 Hilton 40 14 to week 11, 1st in Hilton,Station and Caesars
total 389 270 59% win rate
I was also in the Golden Nugget one year (old of the money), and in the Stratosphere Contest where one bet with play money and finished just out of the money.
I had a major math error in my numbers in 2005, but would have finished out of the money without the error. A 60% system will have good years and bad years..run from 50% to 70%. Luck plays a part.
My approach to football is statistical. I limit it to the NFL because there are too many college teams to follow.
First lets review basics. There is good information in the following places:
Books: ‘the Hidden game of Football" by Carroll, Plamer and Thorn
"The Complete Guide to Football Betting" by Fiest and Sturgeon
"How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Point Spread" by J.R.Miller
Two books by O’Neill (spelling wrong?)
I don’t use Trends, but Bob Frederick (I know Bob and he is my proxy) puts out a good book on trends every year. Bob Frederick's INSIDE SPORTS VIEW
Web sites: twominutewarning.com , NFL.com , gamblersbookstore.com (web address may be wrong…check google)
Papers: Pro Football Weekly, USAToday
My system only "works" for weeks 5 to 16. Weeks 1 to 4 form a statistics base, and week 17 has too many teams with no reason to win. I don’t do playoffs.
I break the season into 3 parts, week 5 to 8, 9 to 12, and 13 to 16. Weeks 1 to 4 and week 17 are educated guesses.
The base of the system is a power rating. The power rating is basically how well a team did compared to an average team, based on field position and turnovers. The system does about 60%, which is one game in five better than chance.
Teams are matched up, and a margin of victory is estimated. The MOV is compared to the point spread and the selections are generated.
Little gems of handicapping are (most already known):
Most people will give a home field advantage to the home team for a game to be played, but will not adjust past games for the home field advantage.
A team who was away last week and plays against a team who was home last week will do better than average.
Home dogs do better than average.
The worst ATS record team in a match up does better than average.
High point spread favorites (13 points and up) do worst than average.
The home field advantage is larger late in the season than early in the season.
Hot weather teams do worst than expected in cold places in December.
Injuries count…off and def linemen are more important than "skill" players.
No team is as good as they look, or as bad as they look.
Luck counts.
Questions, comments and suggestions are welcomed
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Originally Posted by goldengoat
