[arpeggiomeister]

I conducted a chasing experiment over the entire NFL regular season. Though I only had one response to the thread all season long I kept it running so that my picks could be publicly documented. I have a hypothesis I call the “Pendulum Cycle Theory” that states the results ATS are highly contingent on previous game results. This is more because of public reaction to wins and losses then it is about the team match-ups.

My first experiment was to choose an early game, Sunday Night game, and Monday Night Game. I will call this the “3 Game Favorite Experiment” I stuck mostly with favorites. I made some changes when my gut told me to stay away from a game, but this only happened a handful of times and the results evened themselves out.


On week 11 my games were not on the boards yet and I forgot to comeback and update, so I only had one game for that week. On week 17 I had two games, and ended on a win, which is important for chasing systems.


This was a paper trading experiment to see if I could turn a profit worth
pursuing using a chase system. I allowed myself an infinite bankroll so I could go as many tiers deep as needed. I was playing for $25 units. When chasing I gauge units a bit differently than SU betting. The unit is how much I am trying to win. I must compensate for the vig with every loss. It is not enough to simply double each bet.


Results of 3 Game Favorite Experiment:


26 – 22 – 0 54.167% SU


Chase results:


Depth: largest losing streak was 3 games, thus a 4 tier system would have sufficed.


Bankroll: $460.31


4 tier system:

1. $27.48
2. $57.68
3. $121.06
4. $254.09

Profit: $650


ROI: 141.2%


I was really surprised to come out with a record of 54%. That is enough to make a profit without chasing. I was expecting to be right around 50%, slightly above, or slightly below.


Teaser System Results:


A few weeks into the season I started noticing a pattern. At first I was looking simply at any team that beat the spread by 20 or more points and expected them to come back down to earth. I later refined this idea to watch when teams did something unexpected. When a favorite lost ATS I expected them to rebound. When an underdog beat the spread I expected them to come back down. Without 10 point teasers the results appeared random, but once I implemented 10 point teasers the results were astounding.


I did not start publishing these teasers until week 7. On week 14 I lost my first teaser and was able to put together a second in time for the 4:00 pm games, thus scoring a win for that week. In week 15 I did a parlay instead of a teaser and lost. I finished the season with 2 more wins.


Results


9-3 66.6% SU

Largest Losing Streak: 1 game.


Though my sample size is way too small to be considered conclusive, I feel that I am onto something. Chasing systems are not supposed to work. This has been “proven” mathematically. I think that is part of the appeal for me. The Pendulum Cycle Theory drastically changes the parameters upon which that “proof” is based. The results of previous games clearly affect the odds on the future games. This means we must re-examine the Gambler's Fallacy as a valid theory. If it is valid then we must also re-examine the systems which are based on this fallacy, mainly chasing.

[Boomerizzle]

Sounds interesting.. You have my attention. Where have you been documenting your plays? And what do you have lined up for today?

[SparJMU]

I know you are not going to listen to me, but I have to try.........Don't chase. I have been sports betting for a decade. In my dumber days I thought chasing made sense. It doesn't. Eventually the chase will fail. Just don't do it.

[arpeggiomeister]

I had a post called 2012 NFL Chase Experiment. I have 33 replies which are mostly me posting my picks and talking about the results from previous weeks.

[arpeggiomeister]

I know you are not going to listen to me, but I have to try.........Don't chase. I have been sports betting for a decade. In my dumber days I thought chasing made sense. It doesn't. Eventually the chase will fail. Just don't do it.

I understand your argument, but I don't think you have even considered mine. What were you looking at to determine which teams to pick? Team stats, coaching, etc. My guess is that you were not looking at the public reaction.

I am focused on the public psychology driving the spread. My theory is based on the mechanics of the point spread system itself. Have you ever asked yourself why the results are so close to 50/50 between underdogs and favorites. You can believe that these people have a crystal ball but I have a much more plausible explanation. The public reacts to what they see and pushes the spread out of line. When it busts they push the spread in the opposite direction. It swings back and forth between overvalued and undervalued like a pendulum, hence why I call it the Pendulum Cycle Theory.

Your heart is in the right place but I am positive you have not taken the time to consider the theory I have presented.