It’s been an interesting week in Las Vegas because sharp betting has largely been overshadowed by what sharps might be waiting to bet after square money hits the board. We have three games that are sitting a half point away from a critical number as we go to press, and another that’s been sitting right on three, the most critical number of all. Let’s go game-by-game through the weekend NFL playoff schedule to see what the lack of early sharp action means about each game.
Taking the matchups in schedule order…
BALTIMORE at DENVER
Opening Line: Denver by 9.5, total of 45.5
Current Line: Denver by 9.5, total of 46.5
If sharps liked Denver here, the line would have moved to the key number of 10 immediately. The public is likely to support Peyton Manning and the rested home favorite at altitude once they start betting heavily this weekend. Any sharp who wanted the Broncos would have jumped in at the 9.5 now in advance of that action. You have to bet Denver -9.5 if you know -10 or higher is likely in the near future. That DIDN’T happen, which tells you that most sharps prefer Baltimore in a highly priced playoff game, and are waiting to see if they can get +10 or better before kickoff.
Now, it could turn out that the public doesn’t come in heavily on the Broncos because they’re scared off by the high line (less likely given the incredible number of favorites who have covered recent playoff and bowl games), or because the game’s relatively early start (first matchup of the weekend) keeps the overall handle lower than it might otherwise be. And, maybe sportsbooks are okay with being one-sided in the game, and would rather root for Baltimore +9.5 against the public then bring the 10 into play for sharps. Sharps aren’t guaranteed to see a 10. Those preferring Baltimore may have a choice to make before kickoff if there isn’t a move.
What we’re sure of now is that sharps aren’t in love with Denver, or that line would have moved quickly to the key number.
The total has seen support to the Over. Manning gets respect at home for his ability to point points on the board. Baltimore didn’t play an Over game last week vs, Indianapolis, but the game had Over yardage and ball movement. The math guys got an Over in their gradings here at 45.5 and 46.
GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO
Opening Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 45
Current Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 44.5
You regulars know how big the number three is in the NFL…and that it takes a lot of money to move a game off the three. Well, that’s magnified even more in a playoff game because the betting totals are even greater. Sportsbooks would prefer not to give SF fans a shot at the 49ers -2.5, or Packers fans a shot at +3.5.
Sharp and early square money have largely been coming in on the underdog here. You could tell that when many stores lifted the juice on the underdog. Instead of Green Bay +3 at 11/10, some places made you pay 12/10. And, late Thursday afternoon, we saw the first experimental moves to San Francisco -2.5 with -120 to take the favorite. Oddsmakers experimenting with this move had their fingers on the trigger to go back to three if heavy action on the Niners dictated that. This is something we may have to watch all weekend. That’s because:
*Even though SF is the favorite, the public generally supports Green Bay with enthusiasm
*Even though SF had a bye, it’s Green Bay who has the much more battled tested quarterback
We may end up with a tug of war between the 2.5 and the three. We may find that 2.5 is what comes closest to balancing the books because of public support for Green Bay. Watch this line carefully in the hours leading up to kickoff Saturday Night.
Sharps who bet totals showed slight interest in the Under. We hear that’s out of respect for San Francisco’s defense that will be even fresher after the bye week. Sources also tell us that sharps who like San Francisco’s defense but don’t trust the quarterback prefer to invest in SF’s defense by taking the Under rather than laying the points.
SEATTLE at ATLANTA
Opening Line: Atlanta by 2.5, total of 44.5
Current Line: Atlanta by 2.5, total of 46
Moving to Sunday now, we start with a game that’s hung under the key number of three in Las Vegas virtually the whole time it’s been posted (outside of a few outlier openers that had the Falcons at three initially). What’s interesting is that many offshore places have gone to the three in anticipation of square money betting the #1 seed at home off a bye as a cheap favorite.
Seattle did suffer a major injury to its defense, and that has influenced sentiment here according to our sources. Sharps who had loved Seattle to go the distance in the NFC brackets have backed off that just a bit. Sharps who loved Seattle to win outright in Atlanta are now down to seeing them as a value play rather than a big bet.
So, if you like Atlanta, you’d better act quick! If you like Seattle, you may be able to find an out before kickoff that will let you grab the full field goal.
The total is up 1.5 points because of Seattle’s defensive injury, and because of the team’s tendency to open things up more away from home this year. The offense has put up some good numbers in recent weeks, and the defense was more mortal away from the Pacific Northwest.
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND
Opening Line: New England by 9, total of 49
Current Line: New England by 9.5, total of 47.5
This game has a lot in common with Baltimore/Denver, so it’s a fitting bookend to the weekend. This line didn’t make it to the key number of 10. There was some initial support for New England at -9. We hear that some of that was position-taking from market players in anticipation of public money over the Pats before the last kickoff of the week. Though, there are some sharps who believe New England matches up very well here, and will create a near replay of the regular season meeting from a few weeks ago.
The stronger dynamic is that sharps are waiting to see if they can get underdog Houston at +10 or better. Sharps have respected this Texans team when healthy this year and last year. Those who prefer betting on the better defense also believe they have a big edge here. We should also note that sharps who have been fading New England in recent postseasons have made A LOT of money!
The total has dropped 1.5 points because Houston tends to play grinder games, because New England may focus more on running clock if they get a lead than they do during the regular season, and because there’s a chance for rain in the current forecast.
Summing up the weekend: Sharps are looking at all four dogs, particularly if they can get Baltimore and Houston in the AFC at +10 or better, and if they can get Seattle at +3. Sharps and the public alike may be clustered on Green Bay. Squares will probably be on favorites Denver, Atlanta, and New England. The totals guys like the Overs in Denver and Atlanta, but the Unders in San Francisco and New England. Those are all relatively light opinions from what we’re hearing, or there would have been more line movement.