[NOboy]

should be one of my biggest plays this year as i am confident in this play.

Atlanta O: this is a group that struggles to run the ball. they will have to throw in order to win this game. this group features 5 main players in the passing game. roddy white, julio jones, tony g, harry douglas, and jacquizz rodgers. roddy and julio are both fast and physical WR that can run crisp routes, that is the weakness of the seattle corners, they were consistently beat on double moves and comebacks last week by the skins and i expect the falcons to exploit this, the problem last week? skins receievers were dropping balls. then comes tony g, i expect him to get open in the middle and have a soft zone without having to chip chris clemons at the line on passing downs giving him a free release. then comes jacquizz rodgers, with clemons in this would be a problem as he is an every down player and run stopper, but since there will be pure pass rush specialist on the edges, i can see irvin, scruggs, and chukwurah (just signed to rotate in on passing downs) all running upfield to the qb letting the screen and draws get past them. last time seattle played a physical recevier by the name of brandon marshall, he hit them up for 10 rec/165 yards. last time the played a team with 2 viable receiving options? they shut down calvin johnson, but titus young ran loose for 100 yards. this team has 5 viable receiving options. 3 deep, and all can play down low and make screens go for long distances due to the receivers willingness to block on the outside.


atlanta D: we all know they have a weak rush D. but i expect the falcons to come out to an early lead like the skins did last week. when the falcons jump out to an early lead, seattle CANNOT stick with the run the whole time. even if they do, the falcons have seen the zone-read before. i'm sure mike nolan will have something to contain this after having 2 weeks to gameplan around that. they have seen it with washington, carolina 2x, and somewhat with TB 2x. the atlanta pass D has the obvious advantage here. they rank top 5 in opponent QBR. i expect william moore or weatherspoon will spy on Russell Wilson majority of the time to limit his running. with asaunte samuels, daunte robinson and decoud lurking in the back, i can see russell wilson being forced into some mistakes especially when he is trying to read mike nolan's "amoeba" defense. and talking about hard hitting secondaries, dunta robinson and william moore are not scared to go and lay a hit on anyone.


seattle O: we all know their bread and butter is the run game. but will pass if they have to. their D will have to prevent the falcons from jumping out to an early lead and i will get to that later on. RW will have to be able to read the defense. he had trouble last weekend against the skins and i expect him to have trouble this weekend as well. he went 15/26, 187 yards, 1 td, and was sacked 5 times for a QBR of 36.7 yes he got loose for 8rush/67 yards but they will HAVE to be able to throw to beat the falcons at home, especially if they fall behind early.


seattle D: first and foremost, chris clemons. HUGE lost and is being extremely overlooked. i see a lot of people saying that irvin will easily replace him. he is their every down DE. yes falcons are a passing team, BUT with chris clemons in, offensive lines are forced to double team him on passing downs, he is their best pass rusher, freeing irvin on the other side to get to the QB. now, you have 3 pass rushing specialists rotating in for 1 spot and irvin is forced into a starting role playing twice the amount of snaps. pass rush specialists are a liability on the edge and like i stated above, i can see atlanta runnings draws and screens to the outside. now onto pass coverage. whats not known about these guys? heavy hitting ball hawks. they're weakness, double moves. if they face someone that can run routes and do double moves, they will be a few steps behind. seattle has not fared well with teams with physical receivers and more than 1 viable passing option like said in the atlanta O section. i expect them to shut down either Julio or Roddy, but not both. the X-factor will be Tony G and Harry Douglas. tony G is not like any TE they have played this season. what people fail to see as well is, the seattle D has not faced a passing team since they played detroit, they have played minnesota, NY, miami, chicago, zona, buffalo, SF, and st. louis. the highest ranked passing O out of that group is st. louis and they are no where near the caliber of atlanta's passing attack. if the corners are able to shut down BOTH julio and roddy, seattle will have a chance, but as the past has suggested, i dont see that happening.


i will be on atlanta ML for one of the biggest plays this year.

some other pieces of info that i found after i decided atlanta would be my play, no i did not base my plays off of this info and it is just food for thought.

Schedule is everything in the NFL, and the Falcons benefited by playing the league's easiest schedule. They won 13 games against a schedule with a .422 opponent winning percentage, a schedule that featured teams with combined records of 108-148. The good news for the Falcons is that of the past five times a team was the No. 1 seed after facing the league's easiest schedule, four made it to the Super Bowl. The St. Louis Rams parlayed a schedule with a .375 opponent winning percentage in 1999 to a Super Bowl victory over Tennessee. That was the third-easiest schedule in NFL history. The 2005 Seattle Seahawks, 2006Chicago Bears and 2009 New Orleans Saints had the easiest schedule and made it to the Super Bowl. Only the 2001 Pittsburgh Steelers failed to convert. That Steelers team lost to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. All five of those teams went 13-3 during the regular season, like this year's Falcons. For what it's worth, the Falcons were 3-0 against teams with winning records in 2012.


Over the past five seasons, the Seahawks have won once when faced with a 1 p.m. ET start. And don't discount this: By the time the game starts, they will have traveled more than 8,000 miles in little more than a week.


According to STATS LLC, the 1989 Los Angeles Rams are the only West Coast team to win back-to-back postseason games on the East Coast -- at Philadelphia and the New York Giants. STATS' research included teams from Seattle, Oakland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego and Arizona.

[innovation]

Atlanta better come out and score because they are in for a dog fight and Seahawks rank second to Niners at first half points allowed (8.8 ave) which includes 14 last week they allowed. If not it could get worse as the Seahawks are the #1 against 2ND half points at a frightening (6.5 ave) allowed.


GL

[PAULYPOKER]

Good Luck

[NOboy]

Atlanta better come out and score because they are in for a dog fight and Seahawks rank second to Niners at first half points allowed (8.8 ave) which includes 14 last week they allowed. If not it could get worse as the Seahawks are the #1 against 2ND half points at a frightening (6.5 ave) allowed.


GL

both team are neck and neck in first half points scored and allowed.

atlanta allows 10, seattle allows 8.8, atlanta scores 13.9, seattle scores 13.7.
atlanta at home scores 12.9, seattle on the road scores 11.1, atlanta at home allows 9.5, seattle on the road allows 9.8

stats don't tell the story. the most important is the factor of missing chris clemons, and forcing irvin into a starting role upping his snap counts immensely and the traveling factor. traveling 8k miles and crossing 9 time zones in under 5 days. this will cause a sluggish start.

[Totolover1409]

Good write up and I agree with atlanta ML.

[chompsmcgee]

Some selective memory here...

What about when Seattle shut down GB's passing attack with their multiple viable options? And slowed NE's attack?

Also, you claim Seattle hasn't seen a TE like Gonzo before. What about pre-injury Gronk and Vernon Davis?

I agree with reasoning why Seattle might start out sluggish, but have you accounted for the several games which ATL started out slow at home against Oak, Dal, Ari, and TB?

[innovation]

both team are neck and neck in first half points scored and allowed.

atlanta allows 10, seattle allows 8.8, atlanta scores 13.9, seattle scores 13.7.
atlanta at home scores 12.9, seattle on the road scores 11.1, atlanta at home allows 9.5, seattle on the road allows 9.8

stats don't tell the story.

I disagree Seahawks have faced 9 teams that at some point were ranked in top 10 and rank 4th in stregnth of schedule. Hawks have faced 2 top ten teams and ranked 20th in strength of schedule.

While I do understand about your angle of time of start and distance traveled.

As far as Clemons goes he led the team in sacks and tackles. Seattle is middle of the pack in getting sacks so it shouldn't be that big of a issue. I think its Seattle's secondary that is the biggest factor here and how they allow a low completion % and QB pass rating overall..

Very good write up and good luck. I can't back Atlanta knowing the defensive rush issues they have against this Seahawks team.

[NOboy]

Some selective memory here...

What about when Seattle shut down GB's passing attack with their multiple viable options? And slowed NE's attack?

Also, you claim Seattle hasn't seen a TE like Gonzo before. What about pre-injury Gronk and Vernon Davis?

I agree with reasoning why Seattle might start out sluggish, but have you accounted for the several games which ATL started out slow at home against Oak, Dal, Ari, and TB?

Gronk got around 60 yards and 6 rec if I'm not mistaken. I forgot, but please remind which of GB's receivers are physical off of the line. VD is a deep threat. Not a settle in the zone type player and his production fell off completely when kaep took over.

[NOboy]

I disagree Seahawks have faced 9 teams that at some point were ranked in top 10 and rank 4th in stregnth of schedule. Hawks have faced 2 top ten teams and ranked 20th in strength of schedule.

While I do understand about your angle of time of start and distance traveled.

As far as Clemons goes he led the team in sacks and tackles. Seattle is middle of the pack in getting sacks so it shouldn't be that big of a issue. I think its Seattle's secondary that is the biggest factor here and how they allow a low completion % and QB pass rating overall..

Very good write up and good luck. I can't back Atlanta knowing the defensive rush issues they have against this Seahawks team.

Like i said, they haven't necessarily played strong passing teams. Esp on the road. Like I said about Clemons, he was double teamed allowing irvin being 1 on 1. He was more than just a pass rusher. And the DLine pressure allowed their secondary to excel.

[slacker00]

Like i said, they haven't necessarily played strong passing teams. Esp on the road. Like I said about Clemons, he was double teamed allowing irvin being 1 on 1. He was more than just a pass rusher. And the DLine pressure allowed their secondary to excel.

The best passing team SEA faced on the road was @DET. It should be a good blueprint for ATL. It's the most points SEA gave up all year, 28, which included an 80 yard game winning drive that basically took the last 5 mins off the clock. If ATL can win, that's how I expect it to go.

[BennyFang]

Some selective memory here...

What about when Seattle shut down GB's passing attack with their multiple viable options? And slowed NE's attack?

Also, you claim Seattle hasn't seen a TE like Gonzo before. What about pre-injury Gronk and Vernon Davis?

I agree with reasoning why Seattle might start out sluggish, but have you accounted for the several games which ATL started out slow at home against Oak, Dal, Ari, and TB?

Brady had almost 400 passing yards in Seattle.

[slacker00]

Brady had almost 400 passing yards in Seattle.

He also had 2 picks and the offense only produced 2 TDs in a losing effort. But, that was in SEA.

The game being in ATL, SEA needs to play tough D and run the ball effectively to keep the crowd out of it.

[New England Pats]

He also had 2 picks and the offense only produced 2 TDs in a losing effort. But, that was in SEA.

The game being in ATL, SEA needs to play tough D and run the ball effectively to keep the crowd out of it.

Nice to know that in even in the new age NFL, some things will never change..

[DirtyBird1500]

The Seahawks played nine bottom 20 pass offenses. They had the easiest pass schedule in the league.

Here is the rankings of the pass offenses they played.

28th
3rd
9th
18th
16th
4th
23rd
2nd

And here is where they became the "hottest" team in the league

31st
30th
26th
29th
28th
25th
23rd
18th

They didn't play a single pass offense in the TOP 18 over the 2nd half of the season. They faced, on average, the 26th ranked pass offense over the 2nd half of the season while facing Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, Ryan Lindley, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick and Sam Bradford. Not a single top 15 QB in there.

[slacker00]

But they also played Rodgers and Brady and beat them both. They can only play who is on their schedule.

[DirtyBird1500]

But they also played Rodgers and Brady and beat them both. They can only play who is on their schedule.

So same goes for ATL and their weak schedule then, right? That also seems to be a popular theory as to why ATL isnt as good as their record.

And for that matter, SEA also played Ari, St Louis, Det and Miami and lost.

[slacker00]

So same goes for ATL and their weak schedule then, right? That also seems to be a popular theory as to why ATL isnt as good as their record.

And for that matter, SEA also played Ari, St Louis, Det and Miami and lost.

With ATL, it's not that they aren't as good as their record, but we don't know if they are as good as their record. It's more that we don't really know for sure how good they are, based on the evidence. There's something to be said about playing the best teams in the NFL, ATL only played against 2 playoff teams this year and it was against DEN and WAS early in the year before either team really emerged into the teams they came to be down the stretch with RGIII growing as a rookie and Peyton learning how to play with a whole new set of teammates. By contrast, when Seattle played GB and NE, they are more or less similar to the teams we've seen from them over the past 4 or 5 years with Brady and Rodgers throwing to the same WRs, etc.

[DirtyBird1500]

With ATL, it's not that they aren't as good as their record, but we don't know if they are as good as their record. It's more that we don't really know for sure how good they are, based on the evidence. There's something to be said about playing the best teams in the NFL, ATL only played against 2 playoff teams this year and it was against DEN and WAS early in the year before either team really emerged into the teams they came to be down the stretch with RGIII growing as a rookie and Peyton learning how to play with a whole new set of teammates. By contrast, when Seattle played GB and NE, they are more or less similar to the teams we've seen from them over the past 4 or 5 years with Brady and Rodgers throwing to the same WRs, etc.

This is the thing I've been hearing all week. There is always an excuse why ATL's wins don't really count and SEA's are even better than they look. Luckily it all gets decided on the field Sunday. Can't wait.

[slacker00]

This is the thing I've been hearing all week. There is always an excuse why ATL's wins don't really count and SEA's are even better than they look. Luckily it all gets decided on the field Sunday. Can't wait.

I didn't say ATL's wins don't count. I didn't say SEA is better than they look.

I'm trying to look at the evidence and let it speak for itself. You seem to already have your mind made up.

FWIW, I think Matt Ryan takes care of business and finally gets the monkey off his back on Sunday.

[falconticket]

If falcons went 0 and 13 they would have had the number 1 hardest strength of schedule in the nfl. At 141-123. Good teams always have low sos because of the win loss of opponenets.

[OoozeDonatin]

thanks for your effort man but i will be staying away from this game

[slacker00]

If falcons went 0 and 13 they would have had the number 1 hardest strength of schedule in the nfl. At 141-123. Good teams always have low sos because of the win loss of opponenets.

Nope. Even if Atlanta went 3-13 this year, they would have still have had the 6th easiest schedule at 118-138.
http://nfltraderumors.co/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule/

I already went over this in another thread:http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nominated-...ated-post.html

[Big Bear]

all of seattles wins vs elite teams happened at home

[slacker00]

all of seattles wins vs elite teams happened at home

Last week @WAS is a quality win, same with @CHI. The only other DD win team they played on the road was SF.

[NOboy]

With ATL, it's not that they aren't as good as their record, but we don't know if they are as good as their record. It's more that we don't really know for sure how good they are, based on the evidence. There's something to be said about playing the best teams in the NFL, ATL only played against 2 playoff teams this year and it was against DEN and WAS early in the year before either team really emerged into the teams they came to be down the stretch with RGIII growing as a rookie and Peyton learning how to play with a whole new set of teammates. By contrast, when Seattle played GB and NE, they are more or less similar to the teams we've seen from them over the past 4 or 5 years with Brady and Rodgers throwing to the same WRs, etc.

well the argument can be made that they GB and NE were both trying to hit stride as well? pats were 2-2 losing at arizona at home and GB was 1-1. and lets not talk about them winning that GB game everyone knows that was a joke.

Last week @WAS is a quality win, same with @CHI. The only other DD win team they played on the road was SF.

washington? LOL!!!!! they played a 1 legged RG3. dont let that win fool you, RG3 hopped out to a 14-0 lead. @Chi? LOL!!!! they just got injury riddled the week before and were in the middle of their slump.

[NOboy]

The Seahawks played nine bottom 20 pass offenses. They had the easiest pass schedule in the league.

Here is the rankings of the pass offenses they played.

28th
3rd
9th
18th
16th
4th
23rd
2nd

And here is where they became the "hottest" team in the league

31st
30th
26th
29th
28th
25th
23rd
18th

They didn't play a single pass offense in the TOP 18 over the 2nd half of the season. They faced, on average, the 26th ranked pass offense over the 2nd half of the season while facing Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, Ryan Lindley, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick and Sam Bradford. Not a single top 15 QB in there.

[slacker00]

well the argument can be made that they GB and NE were both trying to hit stride as well? pats were 2-2 losing at arizona at home and GB was 1-1. and lets not talk about them winning that GB game everyone knows that was a joke.



washington? LOL!!!!! they played a 1 legged RG3. dont let that win fool you, RG3 hopped out to a 14-0 lead. @Chi? LOL!!!! they just got injury riddled the week before and were in the middle of their slump.

Pats were 3-2, with their offense in full stride fresh off 31-21 over DEN, 52-28 @BUF and 30-31 @BAL.

Fair points about WAS and CHI, but still, SEA can only play who is on their schedule.

As for the GB game, GB scored 12 points, they were begging to lose. GB also got their share of the bogus calls.

[Big Bear]

Last week @WAS is a quality win, same with @CHI. The only other DD win team they played on the road was SF.

washington is overrated in my opinion

[falconticket]

Nope. Even if Atlanta went 3-13 this year, they would have still have had the 6th easiest schedule at 118-138.
http://nfltraderumors.co/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule/

I already went over this in another thread:http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nominated-...ated-post.html

You may be looking at last year. ESPN shows 125-132

[falconticket]

So add 13 to the win number and subtract 3 from the loss.

[falconticket]

0-16 was the original idea. I mis- typed

[NOboy]

all can be said that atlanta had to make come backs or won in tight games, who cares? what ever happened to resiliency? other teams make a come back or wins a close game, its praised, atlanta squeaks one out, they suck. winning ugly is still winning and winning ugly imo shows signs of resiliency which is a good thing. who cares if teams are bad, this is the nfl, you still need to come to play. 1 possession games = clutch. isnt that a good thing? looks like RW wasnt able to deliver and get game winners when his team needed it or stop the either team from winning as much as the falcons. 4-4 compared to 7-2. looks like to me atlanta is battle tested. they either had to stop teams from scoring, or had to go on game winners themselves. so lets not say they aren't battle tested or won ugly. who can throw 5 int's and still win the game.

lets look at some close games this season that were 1 possession games for rw. 4-4 in 1 possession games
arizona: zona scored with 5 mintues remaining in the game, RW couldnt engineer a drive in those 5 minutes...they lost, too bad.
gb: they won on a BOGUS call by the officials on a hail mary pass lets tab this up as a lost
st. louis: the rams scored a fg with 6 minutes left but they couldnt
NE: they were able to stop brady at the end of the game after brady went to cruise control after jumping to a 23-10 lead on a deep ball after a double move
SF: seattle had 5 minutes to engineer another GW drive, they weren't able to
detroit: they allowed the lions to march 80 yards for a GW drive
dolphins: this vaunted pass D allowed 10 points in 5 minutes. they let tannehil throw all over them
chicago: they needed to win in OT
stl: they needed to engineer a GW drive and did it. man, what a close win

let's look at atlanta's 7-2 in 1 possession games
denver: they prevented manning from having a GW drive.
carolina: matty ice had a starting poss at their own 1 yard line and had under 1 minute to get into fg range, got it done and let bryant kick the gw fg
skins: stopped skins from having a gw drive
oakland: had 40 seconds to get into fg range, got it done
dallas: iced the game and didnt allow dallas to get a game winning td
NO: got stopped at the 1 yard line, and a dropped pass to roddy white, too bad.
arizona: overcame 5 interceptions to win the game
bucs: let tb get a lead and was forced to get the lead and stop TB
bucs again: couldnt get it done.

[falconticket]

Or opposite rather

[New England Pats]

In what we all can expect to be a very close match up, it often comes down to a few key phases of the game. In a game that is no doubt going to be emotionally charged, we can look at one statistic that is very often overlooked - penalties. They make or break drives, put teams into and out of field goal range and can cripple any kind of momentum that a team may have going for them. During the regular season the Falcons averaged 3.4 penalties/game, good for an average of 25.9 yds/game - far and away the best in both categories. Seattle averaged 6.7 penalties/game, good for 54.1 yds/game - putting them in the bottom third of the league. It's clear that Mike Smith's Falcons very seldom shoots themselves in the foot..

[slacker00]

You may be looking at last year. ESPN shows 125-132

The ESPN one is the 2011 SOS. I posted the link for 2012.