The first wild card game of 2013 has the slight underdog Bengals coming into Houston to take on the Texans. The Bengals have had a tremendous year riding solid defense and the seemingly impossible to cover AJ Green. Houston, at one point considered the hands-down best team in the NFL, has faltered as of late and as a result, finds themselves playing on wildcard weekend. Ill admit I did extremely well playing with the Bengals during the second portion of the season, and came to avoid the Texans like the plague, but I believe the Texans will re-focus and play up to their potential once again this weekend. BJGE is coming off a hamstring injury which is debilitating to say the least. Without him at 100,% the Bengals running game will undoubtedly suffer. This will tend towards a pass heavy offensive attack. Now the Texans aren't playing D like earlier in the season but as the Bengals become more and more 1 dimensional as the game goes one, the Texans can sit back, Double AJ Green and let the front four, led by the unbelievable JJ Watt, do work on the Bengals O-line. On the other side of the ball is the two headed attack of the Texans offense. Matt Schaub has not been anything special, but with Arian Foster he doesnt have to be. Foster is one of the few running backs left (along with AP, Lynch and Frank Gore) who, in my opinion, can win football games. The Texans will ride Foster early and often, which will open up things for Johnson and Owen Daniels in the passing game. I do not expect the Bengals to lay down by any means, but at home and in the playoffs, the better team makes a statement with a reasonably comfortable win.
Pick: Houston-4
Vikings @ Packers (-7.5)
A rematch of last weeks thriller, the vikings are once again put in the position to "beat the packers or your season is over." This is a match-up involving two teams with completely different focuses. Aaron Rodgers, arguably the leagues best quarterback vs. AP, whom is currently the leagues most intimidating runner. The only difference this week is that the vikings will have to complete the upset at Lambeau--Historically one of the hardest places to win a playoff game. I believe this game comes down to who's offensive weakness (pack's running game or vikes passing attack) gives their team the edge. AP will put ponder into favourable positions but when it comes down to it, Ponder is going to have to throw the ball. Without Percy Harvin and his ability to turn Ponder's short passes into solid gains Ponder is nothing short of a liability. Forced into the hostile environment and uncomfortable weather at Lambeau, Ponder will be out of his element and will turnover the football. Rogers, who thrives under pressure, will use his multitude of weapons, to move the ball consistently. I dont believe the Packers D will stop, or even contain AP, so he may be able single handily keep the game close. However, when the game is on the line and the ball is put into the quarterbacks hands, I want my money to be with Rogers at home, rather than Poned at Lambeau. I am equally inclined to say that the packs win convincingly as I am to say the vikings keep it close. For that reason, Packers ML is the play on saturday night.
Pick: Packers ML
How I will bet Saturday's Games:
I will play 2 units on Houston to cover.
If Houston covers--I bet 1 Unit+75% of my winnings from the Houston Game on the Packers ML
If Houston fails to cover--I bet what is required to win my 2 units back on the Packers ML
First off hopefully todays games are better than yesterdays. Colts @ Ravens (-7)
Sunday afternoon we see the surprise colts come into Baltimore to face off in what could potentially be the legendary Ray Lewis's, last game. I will put this out there, for anyone who makes picks purely on statistics, that my standard analysis has the pick being Ravens-7. However, in a game with this many storylines (Return of Ray, #Chuckstrong, Which Joe will Show?) I believe the standard statistical analysis should be thrown out the window. The truth is that on paper, the Ravens are fantastically average and the colts are one of the worst teams to ever make the playoffs. That being said, the Colts come in winning 5/6 and the Ravens only 1/5. My hunch is based on 2 things: one is that Joe Flacco seemingly always buckles under pressure and is king of the untimely interception and two, is that the raves do not blow people out. They have won 3 games this year by 7 of more points, two of which, were against the raiders and browns. I will sit on this one as long as possible and hope to get Colts +7.5 but nevertheless, the play here is to take the points.
Pick: Colts +7
Seahawks @ Redskins (+3)
Sundays late afternoon game will host the battle of two unbelievably talented rookie quarterbacks. The talk is all about the QB battle but these teams have talented defenses and "Beast mode" and Alfred Morris are no slouches either. It has everything needed to be a great playoff game but statistically, this game is a no brainer. It all comes down to one simple fact--Seahawks on the road. Just for kicks, I ran this game with Seattle at home and they were overwhelming favourites, however, they have been abysmal on the road this year (Other than in Toronto which isnt even really a home game for the bills). Wilson has played great as of late, but early in the season, and especially on the road, he struggled to move the chains. RG3 on the other hand, seems to have ice in his veins. He is the first QB ive seen who can run (much like Vick), but that also is a true pocket passer. The read option out of the pistol formation has baffled defenses all season and I believe that seattle, without the 13th man at home, will be no exception. Washington will not stop Seattle (mostly because of Lynch), but they will contain them. With the Skinny's firepower, it should be enough for an easy cover.
Pick: Skins +3
How I Will bet the Games: 1 Unit on the Colts +7 (hoping to get it at +7.5)
Colts get the back door cover--2 units on Redskins ML
Colts fail to cover--2 units on Redskins +3
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Huntleys Playoff Picks w/ Write Ups
Reply With Quote