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Rotation #214 Dallas (+1) 3-Stars at +1 or more, 2-Stars at pick or -1.
Rotation #229 Washington (+3) 3-Stars at +2 or more, 2-Stars at +1 1/2 or +1.
Rotation #235 Detroit (+2 1/2) 3-Stars at +1 or more, 2-Stars to -1.
Rotation #238 San Francisco (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars to +1.
Rotation #242 Jacksonville (-2 1/2) 2-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars at -3 or less.



3 Star Selection
***Washington 23 TAMPA BAY (-3.0) 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 19-Nov-06
Washington is making a change at quarterback and the announcement of 2nd year pro Jason Campbell getting the start has served to give us more line value with the better team in a good situation. I don't expect Campbell to be as good as Mark Brunell has been (6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average QB and only 4 interceptions), but Campbell won't need to be that good to help his team win this game. Campbell was an accurate passer in college and that translates very well to the NFL and I expect Campbell to be a solid pro, but about 3 points worse than Brunell until he proves he's better than expected. The loss of running back Clinton Portis for the rest of the season has also added to the line value since the perception is that Portis is important when he actually isn't. The Redskins have actually been a better running team with Ladell Betts at running back this season, as Betts has averaged 4.5 ypr this season and Portis has averaged 4.1 ypr. I'm not saying that Betts is a better running back than Portis, but he is certainly no worse given that both backs have averaged 4.1 ypr for the Redskins the last 3 years. Washington has actually been pretty good offensively this season, averaging 5.4 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average attack and the Skins should still be at least average with Campbell running the attack. Tampa Bay's defense is just 0.1 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team), so Washington's offense against the Tampa defense should be a wash. Where the Redskins have the advantage is when Tampa Bay has the ball. The Skins have been 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively this season (5.8 yppl against teams that would average 5.4 yppl), but they've been just 0.2 yppl worse than average in the 3 games with both starting cornerbacks playing (Springs and Rogers are both healthy now). That defense has a significant advantage over a porous Buccaneers' offense that is 1.0 yppl worse than average (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and has been even worse with rookie Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback. My math model would have favored Washington by 6 points if Brunell were at quarterback for the Skins, but the math still favors the Redskins by 3 points given my estimate on how good Campbell will be (and I probably over-adjusted to be on the safe side). Washington applies to a 31-6 ATS subset of a 67-22 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and they look like a very good play in this game. Tampa Bay's only 4 spread wins came as an underdog and their only 2 straight up wins were by 1 point and 2 points, so I feel good about taking 3 points in this game. I'll take Washington in a 3-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more and for 2-Stars at +1 or +1 ½ points.
3 Star Selection



***Detroit 27 ARIZONA (-2.5) 19
01:05 PM Pacific, 19-Nov-06
I've had good luck going against Arizona recently and I'll do it again this week. The Cardinals remain an overrated team thanks to their plethora of fantasy football stars. The public must still think the Edgerrin James can run behind that horrible offensive line (he's averaged just 2.9 ypr) or that Matt Leinart can magically get the ball to stud wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald whenever he wants to. The fact is that Arizona is among the worst offensive teams in the NFL, averaging just 4.4 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack. Getting Fitzgerald back last week did help the offense, which is 0.2 yppl better in the 6 games that he has played, but their -0.6 yppl rating is still worse than Detroit's -0.4 yppl defensive rating (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl). The Lions' defense has actually been slightly better without star DL Shaun Rogers the last 3 games, as the pass defense has gotten better while the run defense has suffered. The other side of the ball is where the Lions have a real advantage, as their offense has been 0.3 yppl better than average this season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) while the Cardinals' defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Cardinals also have the league's worst special teams and they are my overall worst rated team (and they have been most of the season). My math model favors Detroit by 4 points and the Lions apply to a very strong 46-6 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that is a subset of a 73-19-4 ATS angle. I'll take Detroit for 3-Stars at +1 or more, for 2-Stars at pick or -1 and for 4-Stars if the line goes up to +3 points or more.
3 Star Selection



***SAN FRANCISCO 24 Seattle (-3.5) 18
01:05 PM Pacific, 19-Nov-06
The Seahawks get league MVP Shaun Alexander, but I don't really see how he's going to improve the Seattle rushing attack given that he averaged just 2.9 ypr in 65 carries before getting injured. Backup Mack Strong has averaged 3.8 ypr and the line is clearly getting better after having a tough time gelling early in the season. Seattle has averaged 4.0 ypr this season, but their offense is below average with Seneca Wallace still at quarterback. Wallace helps the rushing numbers with his scrambling but he has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play since taking over for injured Matt Hasselbeck 3 ½ games ago (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback). Seattle has been 0.2 yppl worse than average in Wallace's 3 starts (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and I expect them to be about that level today. San Francisco is improving defensively and the Niners are now just 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense, allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. The 49ers also match-up with Seattle pretty evenly when they have the ball, as they have averaged 5.3 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl while the Seahawks have surrendered 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.1 yppl. These teams are actually even from a yards per play perspective and my math model favors San Francisco by 5 points in this game. The Niners' point differential this season has been below what would be expected from their stats and the Seahawks have had a better actual point differential than their stats would predict, but even if I adjust for that I still would get Seattle by only 2 ½ points. My math model is more predictive than using points, but I wanted to point out that the line is more than fair regardless of how you calculate it. The Niners would be worth a play even if there were no line value since they apply to a solid 88-38-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation while Seattle applies to a negative 24-60-2 ATS road letdown situation. San Francisco has played consistently well at home, winning all 3 games against mediocre or bad teams (St. Louis, Oakland, and Minnesota) while losing only to elite teams Philadelphia and San Diego. In case you haven't figured it out by now, the Seahawks fall into the mediocre category and I'll call for the Niners to get another home victory. I'll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +1 to +2 ½ points.
3 Star Selection



***DALLAS 28 Indianapolis (-1.0) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 19-Nov-06
I've had no luck going against Indianapolis this year, but that does not change my view of the Colts as an overrated team – and they are certainly no better than Dallas. The Colts have averaged 6.0 yards per play while allowing 5.3 yppl this season, for a yards per play differential of 0.7 yppl. Dallas has averaged 5.5 yppl and allowed 4.8 yppl, also for a 0.7 yppl differential. The Colts have out-scored their opponents by an average score of 27.7 to 21.0 while the Cowboys have out-scored their opponents 27.8 to 19.3 points, which is 1.8 points better than Indy's scoring margin. The Colts have played a schedule that is 1.1 points tougher, but that still doesn't make them a better team than the Cowboys. The loss of pass rushing LB Greg Ellis will hurt Dallas, but I have adjusted for the loss of his sacks and my math model still projects Dallas to out- gain Indy by 50 yards and to win by 4 ½ points. The Colts have played better against good teams this season, but even if I factor that in (using regression analysis of their level of play versus their opponent's ratings) I still get Dallas by 2 ½ points in this game, which is where the line opened. Not only do we have good line value with the line moving to Colts by 1 point, but Dallas applies to a very good 60-17-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that plays on better than average running teams as a small favorite or dog against a team with a terrible run defense. The Cowboys also apply to a 62-24-2 ATS home momentum situation as long as they are an underdog or pick in this game. I'll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2-Stars at pick or -1 point.
2 Star Selection



**JACKSONVILLE (-3.5) 24 NY Giants 13
05:30 PM Pacific, 20-Nov-06
The Giants have been struggling offensively lately and will have trouble moving the ball against the league's best defense tonight. Jacksonville has allowed just 4.6 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team and the Jaguars apply to a very good 60-20-2 ATS Monday night home situation that has worked again this season. The Jags also qualify in a 149-78-7 ATS statistical profile indicator and my math model favors Jacksonville by 5 points in this game after adjusting 1 ½ points for the Giants being without both of their star defensive ends, Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. New York's defense couldn't get a pass rush on Chicago last week and they'll have a tough time getting to the mobile David Garrard, who has sparked the Jaguars' offense in his 3 starts. I'll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 points or less.



Strong Opinion
Minnesota 17 MIAMI (-3.5) 14
10:00 AM Pacific, 19-Nov-06
Miami has won a couple of games in a row while Minnesota has lost a couple in a row. Neither team is any better or worse than they were 2 weeks ago, but the recent results have given us some line value in favor of Minnesota and have put the Dolphins in letdown mode. Minnesota applies to a solid 128-62-6 ATS road bounce-back situation and I certainly don't mind taking points from a Miami squad that is now just 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite, including 0-4 ATS this season. My math model favors Miami by 3 points, so there is a little bit of line value favoring the Vikings to go along with the decent situation. The Dolphins would qualify in negative 64-134-3 ATS home favorite letdown situation if they become a favorite of 4 points or more and I would certainly take Minnesota if the line moves to +4. I'll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and as a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.



Strong Opinion
Atlanta 23 BALTIMORE (-4.0) 22
10:00 AM Pacific, 19-Nov-06
The Falcons have lost two consecutive games as favorites, but they are likely to bounce back today with a better effort given that underdogs are 121-72-8 ATS since 1980 after losing straight up as a favorite of more than 6 points. Atlanta applies to a 97-35-6 ATS subset of that angle and the Falcons would be worth a play if the line were a bit higher. Atlanta had a good defense coming into the season but injuries to run-stuffing linebacker Ed Hartwell (he's played just 2 games) and pass rushing defensive ends Patrick Kerney (now out for the season) and John Abraham (3 sacks in just 2 games) have rendered that unit below average. Atlanta is 0.4 yards per play worse than average defensively without Abraham in the lineup and Baltimore's offense has improved with head coach Brian Billick calling the plays the last 3 games (they are now average). The Falcons' offense is 0.2 yppl better than average thanks to their great rushing numbers (5.9 ypr), but Baltimore is tough to run against 3.2 ypr) and Micheal Vick may not be good enough to fully take advantage of a sub-par Ravens' pass defense (6.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppp against an average defensive unit). Baltimore's defense played poorly last week without leader Ray Lewis, and he's likely going to miss this game too, but Lewis missed some time last year too and the defensive performance didn't drop off. I do think the Ravens will be easier to run against without Lewis (they allowed 162 rushing yards at 4.3 ypr last week) and I adjusted their run defense to account for that. Overall, my math model favors Baltimore by 6 points and the situation favoring Atlanta is worth 6 ½ points. Atlanta has a solid 55% chance of covering at +4 points and I'll consider the Falcons a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.



Strong Opinion
DENVER (-2.5) 24 San Diego 17
05:15 PM Pacific, 19-Nov-06
San Diego's defense played pretty well in the first game without Shawn Merriman but they were horrible last week in their win at Cincinnati, allowing the Bengals to rack up 545 yards at 7.6 yards per play. I'm not going to overreact to that one game, but I have been lowering the Chargers' defensive rating with Merriman out for his 4 game suspension. The Chargers' offense certainly picked up the slack last week but they should be slowed a bit by a better than average Denver defense. The Broncos' offense is starting to bloom after struggling early this season, so they are capable of beating a now worse than average Chargers' defense. My math model only favors Denver by 1 ½ points in this game but the Broncos apply to a solid 149-78-7 ATS statistical profile indicator that has a 57% chance of covering at a fair line, which gives Denver a 55% chance of covering at -2 ½ points. The Broncos also have a history of playing well at home against good teams, as they are 28-13 ATS when hosting a team with a winning record in 11 seasons under coach Shanahan. I'll consider Denver a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.