[JMon]

This play involves systems….don’t care for them, read no further!

I like to start off by staying that I know this is a complete mismatch…the flying Patriots vs. the hapless Jaguars. However, this is still professional sports and I say that because I love when Vegas give the home team this many points regardless of how bad they are.

Let’s take a look how double digit home dogs have done in the past. Since ’89 they are 74-53-4 ATS (58%). They have lost SU by an average of 10.3, with an average line of 11.8. Nothing too great with an 1.5 ATS differential, but still a solid long term sample.
The L4, DD home dogs have came in at 19-9 ATS (67.8%)., with an average differential of 9.1 and average line of 11.4.

Most recent notable cover came last year when KC caught GB (-12) sleeping in week 15 last year. KC won SU.

We can filter it out further to just the AFC conference an now we have 37-23-3 ATS (61.6%), with a 9.4 average differential and an average line of 12. How about DD conference, non-divisional home dogs? Since 1990, they have hit 24-9-2 ATS (72.7%), with a differential of 7.2 and average line of 11.9. This has gone 7-0 ATS since 2007, clearing the line by 10.7!

Another situation, I have had success with is in December games when teams are off a road loss of 14 or more and are home dogs in their next game. This situation stands at 80-43-5 ATS (65%) since ’89, with average differential of 2.1 and average line of 6.1. Notice the average line of 6.1….in consideration we are getting a DD home dog in this situation, I decided to filter it to that…now we have 12-3 ATS (80%) since 1990. Now we have a 6.1 ATS differential in favor of the home dog. Again the most notable recent game related to this situation is the KC/GB game noted above^.


This is by no means a no-brainer. This play has a 20-40% chance of losing as it has an 80 to 60% chance of winning. Really don’t care if you play it or not…just wanted to share as I will be on it. I don’t think NE will take Jax too seriously, just enough to secure a W.

24131818

2012-12-19 08:49:42.0

INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 550 win 500

112 Jaguars +14½ (-110) risk 550 win 500 (NFL)

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[Slimpickens]

Nice write up. I bet the Jags will put up some points here.

[MobFade]

Agree with everything except the part about this not being a no-brainer.

[convick]

Im a sucker for double-digit home dogs.

I remember that KC game as if it was yesterday. Bastards ruined a 16-0 regular season for the Pack.

[1brokegirl]

plus the fact the pstise are big tme wallet shredders when laying 10 points or more still i dont know if jags can muster enough points to cover and cant see them holding patriots offense under 21 points

still though i think this dd dog might just play thier asses off and put a hurting on patriots seeding as did chiefs vs Packers a huge DD home dog gave Packers there only loss last year

[Pickem2win]

Didnt Jax just get blown out by the Dolphins 24-3 last weekend? You are nuts to put $1 on the Jaguars. I wont be suprised if the Patriots win this one by 35 without even trying.

[wquine]

Jax ml.

[Slimpickens]

Didnt Jax just get blown out by the Dolphins 24-3 last weekend? You are nuts to put $1 on the Jaguars. I wont be suprised if the Patriots win this one by 35 without even trying.

....

[freakydave]

Jax ml.

[ramones951]

You think the fact that Henne has played the Patriots a few times back with the Dolphins works in Jax's favor? Or against b/c Bellicheck knows his tendencies?

[thewhiteguy]

NE - 14.5 will be one of my bigger plays this season. As a jacksonville fan i've watched every game this season and they are easily the worst team in the league. They have shown some offensive improvement with Henne but not near enough. This game will be over at halftime 48-13 Pats.

[Redchevy]

Forget taking the points here, I think you're going to see a pissed off, razor shop NE offense. I'm taking the NE TT over 32 1/2. There is a reason it's the highest on the board, it's in Fl., warm weather and at 1 PM. I think NE hangs 38-45 in this spot and I won't have to worry about any BS back door cover if BB decides to rest the D in the 3rd quarter. JMO on it.

[bigsmitty]

Forget taking the points here, I think you're going to see a pissed off, razor shop NE offense. I'm taking the NE TT over 32 1/2. There is a reason it's the highest on the board, it's in Fl., warm weather and at 1 PM. I think NE hangs 38-45 in this spot and I won't have to worry about any BS back door cover if BB decides to rest the D in the 3rd quarter. JMO on it.

Think I'm agreed. Brady and Bill are superscary when they're choked, all about sending a message-to themselves. Understand the statistics of what you're saying and normally would agree-say with GB in the same situation or maybe DEN (let's play well, get a good win and get out of here). With NE and maybe SF you have psycho (good way) coaches that want to run the score with the goal of achieving perfection with their team. Cheers

[rocky16]

Sorry bro, horrible bet. NE puts up 40 here.

[byronbb]

If JAX can't hold the ball on the ground they are dead.

[thewhiteguy]

7) BET ID=401425116

Straight Wager 12/21/12 06:07 ET bet 345.00 to win 300.00 Result: Pending

Patriots(NewEngland) Jaguars(Jacksonville) 12/23/12(13:05 ET) Patriots(NewEngland) -14 (-115) Bought 0.5 point(s)

6) BET ID=401444978

Straight Wager 12/21/12 14:49 ET bet 630.00 to win 600.00 Result: Pending

BallSt CFlorida 12/21/12(19:35 ET) BallSt +7.5 (-105)

[JMon]

^ I'm on Ball St. 1H +4.5...gl with game.

[king_danilo92]

bradys fucckin pissed off about last week. he comes out firing easily. they win by 21+

[Bostongambler]

Their leading rusher will be out his 9th straight game, and he is still there leading rusher. This says a lot. Second from bottom team in points, and 29th on D.

I will take the much better team. Pats for this cracker. gl

[ramones951]

Their leading rusher will be out his 9th straight game, and he is still there leading rusher. This says a lot. Second from bottom team in points, and 29th on D.

I will take the much better team. Pats for this cracker. gl

Yeah, it says a lot... it says that you shouldn't factor that into your decision at all.. considering he's missed more than half the season

[Slimpickens]

^ I'm on Ball St. 1H +4.5...gl with game.

JMon, What do you think of the jags team total of 18?

[that1Guy]

The only way jax come close to covering is a backdoor. We all know bill and Brady love to 'run the score up'

[hugh_morris]

And run it up is exactly what they will do....The Jags will suffer this week, the dynamic duo live for these moments...peace

[JMon]

You think the fact that Henne has played the Patriots a few times back with the Dolphins works in Jax's favor? Or against b/c Bellicheck knows his tendencies?

I don't know, I would favor Bellicheck here, I don't pay much attention to that stuff as I don't pay attention to injury either as the injury is figured into the line given to me. I have a database full of situations. I am a volume situational player that aims for >=55% on the dime line and most importantly only play where I can exploit a given line in comparison to the historical average line within my situations. I win some, I lose some...I am currently hitting 58% at 20u+ for the year. Each to there own...this play has a 20-40% chance of losing. Just wanted to share some of the situations that I have success with over the years. I don't tail, I hope that no one else does either. That is, one should view information only to collaborate or nullify your own handicapping. BOL .

JMon, What do you think of the jags team total of 18?

Not a TT player. I have no desire actually. I have enough plays to keep my action flowing. However, just by looking at the number I would say it's tight, that is not worth the risk. Contrary to my fellow posters within this thread, I believe the game goes under the posted total. I foresee a 20-24 game in favor of NE. BOL.

[JMon]

congrats any jax backers in this thread...not very many!

[plankton43]

Did anyone see what the 2nd half line was by chance??

[Slimpickens]

congrats any jax backers in this thread...not very many!

[Slimpickens]

Did anyone see what the 2nd half line was by chance??

7.5 I believe.

[Slimpickens]

Didnt Jax just get blown out by the Dolphins 24-3 last weekend? You are nuts to put $1 on the Jaguars. I wont be suprised if the Patriots win this one by 35 without even trying.

[pokernut9999]

Ne -7.5 26.5

[plankton43]

7.5 I believe.

Thank you!

Ne -7.5 26.5

Thank you!

[JMon]

...now you have a couple of situations in your back pocket..

[Jaug]

Easy cover