[imgv94]

No official posted play yet as I am waiting to receive the best possible line on the game.. But let me give you my in-depth reasoning as to why I absolutely love the COWBOYS this week.. Love them!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Why the Dallas Cowboys will win this game:

The Indianapolis colts are currently ranked 32nd defensively against the Run (LAST IN ENTIRE NFL)

And the Dallas Cowboys have the 5th best rushing offense..

Dallas is one of the most complete teams in the entire NFL.. Check out these stats...

DALLAS COWBOYS RANKINGS

OFF PASS= 9th
OFF RUSH= 5th
DEF PASS=8th
DEF RUSH=4th

Dallas is an underrated team w/o a major weakness.. They are very good on both sides of the ball..

Now Indy on the other hand has been dodging bullets all season!!

Honestly Indy has been winning all these close last minute decided games all season.. It will catch up to them at some point and I believe this will be the game.. Let's take a look at their many close calls...

Week 1- Indy 26 Giants 21 (Giants beat themselves)

Week 4- Indy 31 Jets 28 (Indy won game on last min drive)

Week 5- Indy 14 Tenn 13

Week 8- Indy 34 Den 31 (Won game with GW Field Goal)

Week 9- Indy 27 NE 20 (Pats had 5 Turnovers and still almost won game)

Week 10- Indy 17 Buff 16 (Buff kicker missed routine 32yd FG or Indy would of lost)

The Colts have been the beneficiary of alot of fortunate circumstances?

Pretty obvious the Colts are a very beatable team and their defense allows other teams to stay in the game..

The Dallas Cowboys are alot better off with Romo @ QB then they were with Bledsoe, Romo is alot more mobile and adds another dimension to this offense..

I am sure Parcells and the Dallas coaching staff watched all the tapes and noticed what worked and didn't against the Colts on defense ...Dallas coach Bill Parcells is no dummy and will conjure up a game plan to limit Peyton Manning's effectiveness,Likely with running the ball alot and controlling the game clock and keeping Peyton Manning off the field. You can be sure they have watched the tapes of the other teams who had success limiting Mannings effectiveness...

Also 87% of the public is on the Colts.. The Colts are a very public team Manning is the NFL's poster boy and is seen everywhere...

Vegas opened Dallas as -2.5 for a reason... Obviously Vegas believes the Cowboys have a solid chance to win this game...

Also I know this doesn't mean anything but law of average says Indy is due to lose a game..


Bottom line:

The Colts are a very beatable team, Peyton Manning,Harrison,Wayne etc don't play defense and will not be able to help the Colts out when the Cowboys have the ball... Parcells has a huge ego and wants to show the world he can be the one to stop the Colts.. He will have some trick plays up his sleeve and will do whatever he can to get the Cowboys the victory...

If you are taking the Cowboys here is what you are getting:

Better running game
Home field advantage
Better defense
Plus odds/points
Non public play
Better coaching

[Razz]

That's about right. You did neglect to mention that Senior Square himself, the suddenly very beatable Prick, is on the Dolts.
Best of luck bud, hoping this line gets even better.

[pags11]

I'm not a big NFL guy, but this one looks good...will be rooting hard for it since the Prick is on the other side...

[begolf25]

I'm not as high on the Cowboys as you are. They have played a weak schedule at best. Their 5 wins have come against the Skins, Titans, Texans, Panthers and Cardinals. Those teams are a combined 19-35. And just as you pointed out with some of the Colts games, Dallas was very fortunate to get a win against the Panthers who self-destructed in the 4th quarter.

Romo does improve their offense but just as the Colts may be due for a loss Romo is due for a bad game.

As it has already been pointed out The Prick being on the Colts makes me want to pull for Dallas.

GL with your plays this weekend.

[Checkerboard]

Yep. Last night, in another thread, I posted I was anti-IND and leaned to DAL. Now, I'm in line with you waiting for a
better number. IND's last three games are what sell me. They
Outperformed spread in DEN and then again in NE (Two big,
draining, media-focused road games), then home to a narrow
and tense win over 'easy' BUFF and now, on the road to visit a balanced team playing with more divisional implication.

I like it, I love it, I want more of it!

[Hoja Verdes]

Although this game certainly should be a pass, I lean Dallas myself. If there's one team that can squeek out a win against the Colts, it's this Romo-led Cowboys team that has looked very solid the past couple weeks.

I normally have a "Never bet against Peyton" rule, but that rule usually has 1-2 exceptions per year. This is that exception (I realize the Colts have been poor ATS this year).

Of course the optimal number would be Dallas +3, but +2 will do. However, this is a 3x play at max, nothing major here.

[nosuzieno]

I put very small wager on Indy as soon as line opened (-1). Don't doubt your sound reasoning but will never play against manning reg season unless getting 3 or more. They have covered every game this year under that line- (NY, Denver, NE). Granted they play to their level of competition every single game whether at Denver or hosting Buffalo, but that is exactly why I want more than 3 before I go against them-they are in every game. Now they face at most the third or 4th best team in the nfc. So, I don't see huge value in either side but should be entertaining regardless. Appreciate the thread~

[Yoshi]

Disagree, i give Indy a 50% or better chance to win this.

[austintx05]

I agree. The NFL is shady and this is a shady line. Don't be suprised when Vanderjagt kicks the winning FG

[bside]

Who replaces Greg Ellis?

[nosuzieno]

I agree. The NFL is shady and this is a shady line. Don't be suprised when Vanderjagt kicks the winning FG

Be less surprised when he misses it

Indy has lost su v. NFC ONCE 2004-06 and that was to Seattle following death of Dungy's son and the resting of starters (9-1)

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

I agree. The NFL is shady and this is a shady line. Don't be suprised when Vanderjagt kicks the winning FG

Haha! Bro you have that much confidence in VanderSHANK?! I can't belive all of you are so high on the Cowboys this weekend. I'll try to tell you now that the Colts play their BEST football on the road. For whatever reason, they f\*\*k around @ home. Yeah, the Bills made us look vulnerable after last Sunday's close call, but look at the two weekends prior to that. Absolutely torched Denver's so called "Great Defense" and then all of you were against the Colts against the Patriots and look what happened there. The Colts defense has looked better the last two games and Bob Sanders should be back this week and possibly Brandon Stokely. If Stokely comes back to be our slot receiver and we can put Clark on the line it will be a whole nother offense. Cowboys just lost Greg Ellis for the year and didn't Mr. Vanderjagt get a kick blocked two weeks ago against the Redskins, then his "GIRLS" proceeded to lose? Go ahead and put your money on the Cowboys this weekend. Don't be upset though when Manning is picking apart their defense and Addai is running over defenders. The Bills played the best defense against the Colts of anyone all year. Brought the safeties up-double covered Marvin and made Manning throw underneath all game. I guarantee the Cowboys will try to do the same thing, but c'mon guys you give Manning and Tom Moore a week to figure out how to pick that apart! Lights Out! Colts will win on Sunday! Colts will win on Sunday! Colts will win on Sunday! Let's Go Horse!

[sjelveh]

Week 1- Indy 26 Giants 21 (Giants beat themselves)

Week 4- Indy 31 Jets 28 (Indy won game on last min drive)

Week 5- Indy 14 Tenn 13

Week 8- Indy 34 Den 31 (Won game with GW Field Goal)

Week 9- Indy 27 NE 20 (Pats had 5 Turnovers and still almost won game)

Week 10- Indy 17 Buff 16 (Buff kicker missed routine 32yd FG or Indy would of lost)

The Colts have been the beneficiary of alot of fortunate circumstances?

Img c’mon bro love your write up but how come nothing on the titans game, you gave reason for all the other games. The titans had 1 and 10 on the colts 45 with 300 min left and just couldn’t get into FG range, they should have won that game give my boys some love too

[kalmikrazy]

Gonna be at the game guys as I am from OKC so its just a 3 hr drive. Was looking fwd to a 12pm kick, but they just changed it. Should be a great game in Dallas. Me and a few buddies here have started a 1 stadium a year tour in the NFL. Visit a new NFL stadium every year. Last year it was Lambeau field and Dallas this year. Should be a good game as I see Dallas only winning if both RB's can get about 175 yards on the ground to keep Manning of the field. Everyone knows the Pats lost cause they tried to play to the Colts style rather than NE ball.
Gotta lose sometime or another and I like this spot for Dallas and mastermind Parcells. Too many close calls for the Colts and it should catch up this week unless Dallas does silly things like Buffalo, Tenn, Pats have done to GIVE the game to the Colts.

[Hoja Verdes]

The only way the Cowboys lose is if they beat themselves, just like everyone else the COlts have played.

[austintx05]

Haha! Bro you have that much confidence in VanderSHANK?! I can't belive all of you are so high on the Cowboys this weekend. I'll try to tell you now that the Colts play their BEST football on the road. For whatever reason, they f\*\*k around @ home. Yeah, the Bills made us look vulnerable after last Sunday's close call, but look at the two weekends prior to that. Absolutely torched Denver's so called "Great Defense" and then all of you were against the Colts against the Patriots and look what happened there. The Colts defense has looked better the last two games and Bob Sanders should be back this week and possibly Brandon Stokely. If Stokely comes back to be our slot receiver and we can put Clark on the line it will be a whole nother offense. Cowboys just lost Greg Ellis for the year and didn't Mr. Vanderjagt get a kick blocked two weeks ago against the Redskins, then his "GIRLS" proceeded to lose? Go ahead and put your money on the Cowboys this weekend. Don't be upset though when Manning is picking apart their defense and Addai is running over defenders. The Bills played the best defense against the Colts of anyone all year. Brought the safeties up-double covered Marvin and made Manning throw underneath all game. I guarantee the Cowboys will try to do the same thing, but c'mon guys you give Manning and Tom Moore a week to figure out how to pick that apart! Lights Out! Colts will win on Sunday! Colts will win on Sunday! Colts will win on Sunday! Let's Go Horse!

Still a little bitter from last year's game? Vinateri missed 2 FG's at Foxboro, and don't think Vanderjagt won't be a more focused vs a team that didn't want him. It very well could happen. I do not see a blowout here at all. In the Colts defense they have been winning close games and not blowouts, but this is Indy's 3rd road game in 4 weeks and Dallas is just as capable to run all over that defense as Denver & NE were. Go ahead and toot your homer horn, but it took Brady to throw 4 INT's and you only won by 7. That to me is a close game. Dallas' defense is a bit underrated, more so the run defense is. You say Addai is going to run over Dallas...well I would like to see that. I think Addai will get 60-70 yards in this game. The key will be limiting to Peyton under 300 yards. Don't have to stop him, just slow him down. DeMarcus Ware needs to step up in Ellis' absensce. I am not a Cowboy fan, so don't think I am biased here. I have 1 team that I am a fan of, Texas Longhorns and I do not bet their games. You can't bet with your heart because you will end up losing. Speaking from a bettor's point of view, Dallas is worth a 1 unit play Sunday. I do not know that they will win, just like you do not know if Indy will win, but I expect this to be closer than most expect.

Good Luck

[rolemand]

The achilles heal of Dallas since the 80's has been the deep ball and/or the pass interference call. If they can't solve that problem they won't win this game. They simply don't win games when they have this one problem.

[imgv94]

The only way the Cowboys lose is if they beat themselves, just like everyone else the COlts have played.

EXACTLY!!!

Hoja Verdes..

You are high in my book after that statement sir..

Everyone read what this genius just said!!!

[durito]

My problem with betting this game is the Cowboys complete lack of consistency.

Dallas is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS this season after a loss. But, just 1-3 straight up and 1-3 ATS after a win.

Under Parcells they are 16-8-1 ATS the week after a loss and only 7-16 ATS the week after a win.

Still, I think Dallas is the play here, but I'd like it more at + 3. I'll probably pass.

[RageWizard]

Hey guys, I'll give you your reasoning on the Boys beating the
Colts but I would like to point out that Colts have only lost against the number on the road 3 times since the begining of the 2005 season. Once this year against the Jets in week 4 and twice last year to Jacksonville in week 14 and Seattle in week 16. Out of those games they lost only one outright to Seattle. Its only week 11 guys, Indianapolis usually doesn't get exposed until week 13 ( then the ATS record shows a good reason to fade them.) On week 11 games since 2002 Indy has not lost ATS whether at home or away. The last point is that Indy has a much better record on the road ATS (22-12-2) against the record ATS at home (16-20-1) since 2002.

I think that when Indy gets beat it will be at home after week 12 to Cincinnati or Miami.

[austintx05]

Indy @ Dallas
Cinci @ Indy
Miami @ Indy

You tell me who stands the better chance to beat Indy here.

[RageWizard]

Looks and sounds crazy doesn't it. I'm gonna load up on Miami in the last game of the year. Indy will be resting everybody including the first string chearleaders and Miami will be motivated by the ghost of '72 to upset the mighty colts for another wacky NFL story.

[McBa1n]

I don't see how Dallas can win this game, to be honest.
Yes - Indy has no defense, however, they have 'big play' ability at times and generate turnovers. That defense is designed to do that, despite it having little talent beyond a couple of studs. Dallas has a first year starter at the helm - that plays into Indy's scheme, IMO... Even as shaky as that scheme is.

I've watched every Indy game this year. They were not 'fortunate' to win any game aside from the New England game. Why? Have you seen Peyton in money time? Money. Absolute money. There was no doubt he would lead the team down to win against Denver, even though Denver played a perfect game, save 1 fumble due to a premier LT being injured.

Last week against Buffalo, who has a VERY under-rated, albeit knicked-up Defense, even if moneyLindell hits that kick, there was still PLENTY of time for Peyton to answer. Sure they would've been behind, but you could feel that they could've done it - like they've been doing it - in big spots all year and also the past couple of years.
*EDIT* - there was 6 minutes left after the missed Lindell kick and Indy took knees well within field goal range.

I am not a big fan of Dallas at all, although, Romo gives that team something they have not had in a long time - and that's a spark. I do not like that Defense at all. They have a lot of playmakers on that side of the ball, but a lot of those playmakers sure disappear for long stretches in games (Roy Williams and DeMarcus Ware are 2 of them). Newman can't cover Indy's receivers, either.

There's only 1 reason to like Dallas, aside from the home field factor, and that's Dallas has some timely pass rushing ability. The ONLY way to give yourself a chance is to get pressure on Peyton. Dallas can do that. However, it's going to come down to if they can force Peyton into making bad decisions and also turning the ball over. That's a VERY VERY tall order.

This Dallas team, talent-wise, is NOWHERE near the SD team nor the Pitt team from last year that beat Indy. It's also NOWHERE near the Jacksonville team that beat Indy IN Indy 2 years ago - nor the Patriot teams that beat the Colts. Only premier/borderline elite teams can beat Indy. Dallas is not good enough to be in that category - not even in the NFC. They COULD get there with a win, but they certainly are not there yet.

The way I see it is, the only way Indy loses is if they beat themselves or Dallas has their game of the season - and I think they already had that against a down Carolina team.

I just don't see Dallas having any better than a 20%ish to win this game.

That's just the way I see it, though, as I havn't missed an Indy game in years now... It always seems I have a lot of money on them, somehow heh. There are very few teams I trust to just cover the win more than Indy. They get beat by VERY good teams only. Dallas is 'good'. I think that's fair to say.
Anyhow, GL this week to anyone betting on this game - and sorry for being on the other side of most of you. I'm a square, we all know it... I wish you luck.:>

Edit:
GUH! I forgot the most important point. What's Indy's record? Undefeated. That sure says a lot to me.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

McBain,
U know whats up bro! Do I think the Cowboys have talent? Of course... Do I think they have a chance of winning? Well everyone has a chance... But honestly, the Cowboys are 5-4 for god sakes... It's not like they are 7-2 or 8-1... Yeah, Romo is an upgrade from Bledsoe, but he still isn't that great... Manning has had all week to study how to pick apart the defense even if they do come with the scheme that Buffalo brought last week... Colts win this game by a touchdown... Dallas's secondary has been exposed all year long... Look for Manning, Harrison, and Wayne to have big games... Let's Go Horse!

[austintx05]

I love the attitude of a square. Please tell me why an undefeated team is only a 1 point fav vs a 5-4 team?

[McBa1n]

A few reasons I would guess for the line
1- Parcells teams are pretty good ATS.
2- It's inconceivable to think Indy will go 16-0, and this is 1 of 2 games where they have a chance to lose...
3- Dallas is the most popular team in the NFL by far, and one of the most popular teams in any sport in the world... Dallas lines have been off a few points for a long time due to homer bets (like the Yankees, Lakers and a couple others).

#3 is wrong if 90% of the action is on Indy, though.

I think the line is reflective of Dallas playing well lately and Indy keeping games within a touchdown pretty much all year due to their pourous defense... Plus Dallas having a spark that they didn't have with Bledsoe.

I just got done watching the Colts/Dallas games from last week again to see if I could get a better feel for why so many on here are favoring Dallas... The only thing that jumped out at me is that I'm pretty sold on Romo. The kid is very very good and probably the 2nd best 1st year starter this season by a slight margin behind Rivers (and Romo doesn't have a running game or O Line like that in front of him - he's VERY impressive).

I didn't see anything else, though. Zona stopped trying, and it was pretty clear, with a lot of time left to play. Dallas' front 4 is going to have to generate more than they did against Leinart, though. I was shocked at how much time Leinart had on many plays. Zona has a bottom 3 O Line right now.

As for Indy? No defense and undisciplined play and some timely turnovers against them and they STILL win. Not many teams can do that - only the great ones overcome bad turnover differential. Manning manages the game as good as anybody that ever played - so they always have at worst, a chance.

I just can't see Dallas winning here, no matter HOW bad Indy's D is. You have to remember that because Indy's O is so potent (and Dallas' secondary is suspect), teams generally try to play 'shootout' style and it blows up in their face. Teams that get behind to Indy early tend to self-destruct. They aren't doing it like last year, but you can see teams pressing to do things that they are not capable of and ultimatly running themselves out of the game.

[dave11486]

I love the attitude of a square. Please tell me why an undefeated team is only a 1 point fav vs a 5-4 team?

Word...

[austintx05]

Well there might be a few that like Dallas this week on this site, but everywhere else I go its all about the Colts. Even sportsbook, SI are showing 87%+ on Indy. I believe Dallas was favored for a reason. Parcells has already stated that they cannot get into a shootout with Indy. No one is going to beat them at their own game. You wanna talk about Dallas fromt 4 being suspect, well where has Freeney been all year? The thing I like about these plays is that no one can really see Dallas beating the Colts. This is how I bet and honestly more times than not these picks win. Will be a great game. I am not touting this play by any means. Indy is fully capable of beating Dallas, I just like the spot at this time of the year where Dallas is a home dog.

Good Luck

[nosuzieno]

I don't know about Indy going on the road against a well- coached, running and defensive oriented team. Outside of NYG, Jax, Denver and NE, they haven't really faced anybody like that this year.

[McBa1n]

lol, nosuzieno

I'm not touting either, this is how I bet. No emotion involved or anything (as an NFL fan, these are the 2 teams I hate the most EASY haha)... It's based on watching every game every week (at least once) and a mathematical formula that picks more winners than I do (I'm a moron). We'll see on Sunday, I guess.
GL to you, also... and everyone else.

[kalmikrazy]

It was a good game guys. Got in from Dallas late last night back to OKC. The atmosphere was amazing all game long. Crowd was into the game from start to finish. Being semi-closed helps to keep the noise inside, especially when PM was calling audibles. Crowd really erupted when Roy got that Int at the 1 yard line.

I think if Vanderjagt shows up in public anywhere, anytime soon, he might got whooped. The Boo's where deafening!!

Im happy for the boys (even though I am not a fan) and I still dont feel Indy is the best team. Ill take SD any day esp. in the playoffs this season.